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> Spring 2017
bigmt
post Today, 09:12 AM
Post #1001




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From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





Rumblings from the Pacific, something is stirring - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...winter/70001184

Attached File  accuweather.brightspotcdn.comfrtg.jpg ( 57.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


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QUOTE
A March 9, 2017, report from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center stated that there is a 50 to 55 percent chance for El Niño to develop between July and December. If El Niño develops, it could have implications on the upcoming hurricane season and the overall weather pattern across North America into next winter.

While signs are pointing toward El Niño returning, it is not a guarantee.

“Transitioning out of winter can be very difficult for the weather models to handle, so you can get misdiagnosed in the months of February, March and April especially,” AccuWeather Lead-Long Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said.

This uncertainty is sometimes referred to as the "spring barrier," since this time of year is when weather models that help to forecast El Niño are typically least accurate.

However, confidence is slowly growing that El Niño will develop this summer. It is not expected to reach its peak until late in the fall or early winter. Even if it does develop in the summer, it may take until the fall before more significant weather impacts are seen in the U.S., according to Pastelok.

The timing of the onset of El Niño may play a key role with how active the upcoming hurricane season is in the Atlantic Ocean.

During an El Niño year, the winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are not favorable for the development of tropical system in the Atlantic hurricane basin, Pastelok said.

These disruptive winds can limit the number of tropical systems that develop, leading to a below-normal year.

The strength of El Niño will determine the impacts that it has on the eastern U.S.

While it is unlikely that another "super El Niño" will unfold like the pattern two winters ago, there could be a weak to moderate El Niño during the upcoming fall and winter.

During a stronger El Niño, storm systems typically track across the southern U.S. and out to sea rather than tracking up the East Coast. This lowers the chance of a major winter storm, such as a nor’easter.

However, if the pattern is weaker, systems may track farther north and could move up the East Coast, resulting in snow when enough cold air is present.

“The weaker the El Niño, the more favorable for impactful storms and snow in the East next winter,” Pastelok said.

Thus, a weaker El Niño could spell above-normal snowfall for cities along the I-95 corridor next winter, including in New York City and Boston.
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bigmt
post Today, 09:15 AM
Post #1002




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,240
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





WPC surface forecast for day 4:

Attached File  9khwbg_conus.gif ( 27.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Day 5:

Attached File  9lhwbg_conus.gif ( 26.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PARADE OF SYSTEM
EJECTING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WITH TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DEAMPLIFYING AS THEY
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE EJECTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST.

TYPICAL TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW
EJECTING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY. THE
OVERALL DISTRIBUTION REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...AND SHOWS THE
LOW WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE LAKES TOWARDS NEW YORK...WHILE A
RIDGE IS SLOW DEPART NEW ENGLAND.

THE INITIAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUN MORNING IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND WEAKENS IT
EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY ON MON
AND THEN OH VALLEY ON TUE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WED 29 MAR.

UPSTREAM ON MON 27 MAR...THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW ANTICYCLONIC
WAVE BREAKING....AND DEVELOP A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US. THERE IS DIFFERENT CLUSTERING OF SOLUTIONS
DEPENDING ON THE GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING DIFFERENT ON THE
TROUGH TIMING/AMPLITUDE/PHASING.
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bigmt
post Today, 09:17 AM
Post #1003




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7-day total QPF, substantial moisture on tap for both the west coast and into a sizable portion of the east:

Attached File  p168i.gif ( 48.67K ) Number of downloads: 3
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travis3000
post Today, 09:39 AM
Post #1004




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Lots of rain coming! Get ready. The grass will love it.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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JJ Snowlover
post Today, 10:12 AM
Post #1005




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Member No.: 24,422





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 23 2017, 10:39 AM) *
Lots of rain coming! Get ready. The grass will love it.

Grass blink.gif For the here, the 6 cm rocked-hard glacier snow that just wont leave this winter will love it tongue.gif
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bigmt
post Today, 10:17 AM
Post #1006




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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Mesoscale guidance coming into range.

12z RGEM @ hour 12:

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Hour 18:

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Hour 24:

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Hour 30:

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Hour 36:

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Hour 42:

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Hour 48:

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Precip-type @ hour 48:

Attached File  rgem_ptype_acc_quebec_17.png ( 122.15K ) Number of downloads: 1
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snowgeek93
post Today, 10:29 AM
Post #1007




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,061
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
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We're not getting any vegetation back here for at least another month. We should get green grass back in a few weeks if temps are warm enough and there's enough rain.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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frosty
post Today, 11:34 AM
Post #1008




Rank: Tornado
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From: Mississauga Erindale ON
Member No.: 26,330






El Niño
Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/

Under the surface of El Nino
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view...mp;src=eoa-iotd
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plowguy
post Today, 11:42 AM
Post #1009




Rank: Tornado
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Posts: 496
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From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





Does anyone have any thoughts on freezing rain for my area? EC is calling for +1 tonight TWN -1. They both seem to have Hamilton in more of a freezing rain zone. A heartfelt Thank you to all who offer a thought.
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travis3000
post Today, 11:55 AM
Post #1010




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,246
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Mar 23 2017, 11:12 AM) *
Grass blink.gif For the here, the 6 cm rocked-hard glacier snow that just wont leave this winter will love it tongue.gif


I forgot you guys still have snow up there LOL


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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travis3000
post Today, 11:57 AM
Post #1011




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





QUOTE(plowguy @ Mar 23 2017, 12:42 PM) *
Does anyone have any thoughts on freezing rain for my area? EC is calling for +1 tonight TWN -1. They both seem to have Hamilton in more of a freezing rain zone. A heartfelt Thank you to all who offer a thought.



To be honest Im not that concerned with freezing rain down there you'll be too warm. A minor threat tonight in the Orangeville/Shelburne area across to Newmarket and Barrie but it will transition to rain. Nothing serious.

I think the Windsor to Toronto corridor will stay all rain.


--------------------
Alliston,ON 2016/2017 Snowfall:

October: 1.5cm
November: 7cm
December: 70cm
January: 20cm
February: 27.5cm
March: 6cm
--
2015/2016 Total: 121cm
2014/2015 Total: 113.5cm
AVERAGE Annual Snowfall: 155cm

Travis
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bigmt
post Today, 12:03 PM
Post #1012




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,240
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





12z GFS precip-type @ hour 168 - day 7:

Attached File  gfs_ptype_accum_quebec_29.png ( 233.27K ) Number of downloads: 0
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snowgeek93
post Today, 12:20 PM
Post #1013




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 3,061
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 23 2017, 12:57 PM) *
To be honest Im not that concerned with freezing rain down there you'll be too warm. A minor threat tonight in the Orangeville/Shelburne area across to Newmarket and Barrie but it will transition to rain. Nothing serious.

I think the Windsor to Toronto corridor will stay all rain.

Rain is good. Anything over freezing rain issues.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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snowgeek93
post Today, 12:21 PM
Post #1014




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,061
Joined: 7-September 09
From: Thornhill, Ontario
Member No.: 19,154





QUOTE(frosty @ Mar 23 2017, 12:34 PM) *
El Niño
Pacific Wind and Current Changes Bring Warm, Wild Weather
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ElNino/

Under the surface of El Nino
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view...mp;src=eoa-iotd

Not looking forward to his possible return but we got a long way to go until that's an issue.


--------------------
Buttonville Airport 2016/2017 Snowfall: 136.8cm

First Flakes: Oct 27th
First Snowfall: Nov 20th/21st (2-3cm)
Biggest Snowfall: Feb 12th (18.4cm)
Days with Snow on Ground: 89
Days with Snow Cover: 52

Thornhill, Ontario Snowfall (Buttonville Airport):

2016/2017: 136.8cm* (Weak La Nina)
2015/2016: 96.4cm (Strong El Nino)
2014/2015: 118.7cm (Weak El Nino)
2013/2014: 184.8cm (Neutral)
2012/2013: 151.6cm (Neutral)
2011/2012: 99.9cm (Weak La Nina)
2010/2011: 168.1cm (Moderate La Nina)
2009/2010: 71.3cm (Moderate El Nino)
2008/2009: 253cm (Weak La Nina)
2007/2008: 251.6cm (Moderate La Nina)

Average Snowfall (Buttonville Airport): 142.6cm
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plowguy
post Today, 12:26 PM
Post #1015




Rank: Tornado
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Group: Member
Posts: 496
Joined: 17-February 09
From: brantford
Member No.: 17,615





QUOTE(travis3000 @ Mar 23 2017, 12:57 PM) *
To be honest Im not that concerned with freezing rain down there you'll be too warm. A minor threat tonight in the Orangeville/Shelburne area across to Newmarket and Barrie but it will transition to rain. Nothing serious.

I think the Windsor to Toronto corridor will stay all rain.

Thanks Travis.
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bigmt
post Today, 12:41 PM
Post #1016




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Posts: 18,240
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From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_41gft5.png ( 1008K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_5167hg.png ( 964.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 360 - Day 15:

Attached File  gefs_z500a_noram_61gft5.png ( 947.15K ) Number of downloads: 0
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bigmt
post Today, 01:00 PM
Post #1017




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EC - http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html

QUOTE
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
AWCN15 CWHX

Weather summary
for Prince Edward Island
issued by Environment Canada
at 12:26 p.m. ADT Thursday 23 March 2017.

Discussion.

An intense low pressure system approached the Maritimes on Wednesday
and passed east of Prince Edward Island Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Snowfall amounts ranged from 8 to 30 centimetres
across the island. The combination of freshly fallen snow and very
strong winds produced widespread whiteout conditions Thursday
morning.

The following is a summary of weather event information received by
Environment Canada as of 09 AM ADT.

1. Summary of snowfall in centimetres:

Wellington 9
Summerside 14
New London 8
Bonshaw 15
Harrington 9
Charlottetown 20 to 30
Grand Tracadie 18
Stanhope 12
Caledonia 11

2. Summary of maximum wind gusts in kilometres per hour:

North Cape 93
Summerside 93
Maple Plains 70
Harrington 78
Charlottetown 78
Stanhope 72
St. Peters 69
East Point 87

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC
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