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> Jan 26-27 MidAtl/NE Blizzard, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 19 2015, 11:32 PM
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Models show a possible storm on coast for this time period.. 00zGFS has a storm off NC Coast

This post has been edited by BLIZZARD_OF_79: Jan 21 2015, 05:41 AM


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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Removed_Member_snowlover2_*
post Jan 19 2015, 11:37 PM
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Might want to fix the date in the title. wink.gif
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 19 2015, 11:35 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 19 2015, 11:37 PM) *
Might want to fix the date in the title. wink.gif

Lol I did.darn spell check


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 19 2015, 11:43 PM
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Plenty of time for it to move west a lil bit wink.gif but its there on 00z GFS....


[attachment=251090:f174.gif]


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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stxprowl
post Jan 20 2015, 03:44 AM
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Started watching the Australian Open.... Bad idea, can't sleep! lol Go Serena!
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This post has been edited by stxprowl: Jan 20 2015, 03:48 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 20 2015, 04:16 AM
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Blam - the Euro not only charges the particles for this time period(and the one before) but also threatens a third one on the 30th (that one has less southern stream involvement though)

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html
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zigoapex
post Jan 20 2015, 10:49 AM
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It looked like we were going to have a snow filled winter,with the pattern we had during november,this pattern isn't going to produce anything substantial.
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jb1979
post Jan 20 2015, 01:44 PM
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Transfer situation on the Euro:

144 and 168. Best overall Euro run of the year for many people
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------

______________________________
Winter 2018 - 42.5 inches
Winter 2017 - 24.5 inches
Winter 2016 - 41.5 inches
Winter 2015 - 41 inches
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches (2nd Highest)
Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
Average Annual Snowfall (Est.) 25 inches
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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Jan 20 2015, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(jb1979 @ Jan 20 2015, 01:44 PM) *
Transfer situation on the Euro:

144 and 168. Best overall Euro run of the year for many people

But where on coast does it actually transfer?


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
Dec 9th....3.0 inches
Dec 13th...0.25 inches
Dec 15th...1.0 inches
Dec 30th..0.50 inches
Jan 3rd-4th...1.0 inches
Jan 16-17th...1.25 inches
Feb 17-18th...2.00 inches
March 6-7th...1.25 inches
March 20-21...6.25 inches
----------------------------------------------

Total snowfall.....16.50 inches




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
17-18....16.50 inches
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MaineJay
post Jan 20 2015, 02:05 PM
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Extended disco
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1059 AM EST TUE JAN 20 2015

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 23 2015 - 12Z TUE JAN 27 2015

...OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...
THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN AND AMPLITUDE/WAVELENGTH OF THE NORTH
AMERICAN EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO BE
WELL REPRESENTED BY ALL THREE ENSEMBLES MEANS (EC-GEFS-CMC). THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY INJECTING INTO THE
TROUGH---WILL HAVE PACIFIC ORIGINS...WITH A SPLIT-FLOW TRAJECTORY.
AT THE CURRENT MOMENT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE FEATURED DURING THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

THE FIRST...SOUTHERN ENERGY TAKING A TRACK THAT FAVORS AN
INCORPORATION OF GULF OF MEXICO AIR/MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD---WITH A SECOND...THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE---ONE HAVING MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...A DRY
DOWNSLOPE WARM SECTOR OFF THE ROCKIES...AND A DRY AND SHALLOW
CANADIAN AIRMASS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE INSTABILITY
ALOFT WORKING IN ITS FAVOR...AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THEN EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.


EXPECTATIONS ARE--- FOR THE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED PATTERN ALOFT TO
GENERATE AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WET WEATHER FOR THE EAST
COAST---INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A VERY MILD PATTERN
FOR THE WEST---INCLUDING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST---AND THE PLAINS
STATES (CENTRAL CONUS ALONG 100W)---SHOULD FEATURE A SERIES OF
RELATIVELY-DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES...BUT RATHER MILD AIR WITH SOME
MODEST TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION. HOWEVER...NOT NEARLY THE
TYPICALLY-FRIGID AIRMASS ONE WOULD EXPECT OF MID-JANUARY WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGES. IF THERE WILL BE AN ARCTIC-LIKE
AIRMASS...IT APPEARS TO BRUSH ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND BRIEFLY 'RE-APPEAR' IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM ON DAY 6-7. WHAT LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT---IS A BROAD
SOUTHWARD SURGE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS---THROUGH THE 27TH (OUR DAY 7
PERIOD).

...UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT/MODEL PREFERENCES...
IT TOOK SOME TIME...BUT THE LOWER 48 (EAST OF THE DIVIDE)---HAS
ESSENTIALLY 'CONQUERED' THE ARCTIC AIRMASS---WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY GENERALLY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. THIS
'MILDER' AIRMASS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE WEST BY A VERY BROAD
MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONFIGURATION THAT SLOWLY MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SUBTROPICAL EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE
UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE WIND FORECASTS BELOW 10K FT AND THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TERRAIN---WITH THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
COMPONENT OF THE FLOW BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE--TO DEVELOP A
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. THIS WILL BE A CHALLENGE FOR PROJECTING HOW
MILD VS HOT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE FOR
CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...ARIZONA AND OREGON.

DOWNSTREAM...THE ABILITY OF THIS BUILDING RIDGE AND ITS MODIFIED
AIRMASS TO SEEP EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WILL BE A TEMPERATURE
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS. JUST BEYOND THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE RIDGE
PREVENTS/INHIBITS THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR---BACK INTO
THE LOWER 48.

ALONG THE EAST COAST...THE UNCERTAINTY IS WITH THE DEPTH OF THE
CYCLOGENESIS EMERGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS DEFORMATION (OUR SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY)...WILL LIKELY BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR WINTER P-TYPE CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
SECOND IMPULSE---(OUR NORTHERN SYSTEM) IS A DEPTH CONCERN ACROSS
THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE MID-OHIO VALLEY...THEN A 'STRUCTURAL'
CHALLENGE ONCE THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS ROOM FOR SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS---AND CONCERN...THIS SYSTEM WILL RE-ENERGIZE OFF THE
DELMARVA...BEFORE EJECTION INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
.

THE WPC MANUAL GRAPHICS AND NATIONAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
20/00Z ECENS...20/00Z NAEFS (DAYS 3-7) AND THE DETERMINISTIC
20/00Z ECMWF (TIL DAY 5).

VOJTESAK

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Jan 20 2015, 05:23 PM
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Gee - the GFS made a huge jump north and west - why am I not shocked

Attached Image


Oh wait - maybe its because of a magically appearing -NAO? Well, in word... no

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...a/nao.sprd2.gif

Maybe it's an Atlantic ridge - strike two.

No, my friends, it's all about H5 and the structure of the flow UPSTREAM that causes this. Once again the GFS tries to shear energy way too quickly in the med-LR then it backs off when it realizes it is not correct. This allows for a much improved Western US ridge structure (PNA if you must but does not have to be Pac located) that allows the flow to buckle which causes our vort maxima to play in a way that allows them to spin and overcome the otherwise flatter flow downstream.

Would it be bigger if we had a -NAO? Probably - but that is due mostly to speed and not necessarily intensity of the systems.

OK - I'm done and off my soapbox about NEEDING a -NAO for EC storms. I can still remember back as far as last year even at my advanced age.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 20 2015, 05:31 PM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 20 2015, 05:35 PM
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Well hello there Baltimore


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Supertyphoon
post Jan 20 2015, 05:42 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 20 2015, 05:35 PM) *
Well hello there Baltimore


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Stop it! ST

UT....got your message. Checking...Not likely but will advise via PM


--------------------
On the left...
Back to the Rockers....the best!

Davis Weather Station my backyard in Ashburn: www.stormysweather.com/WxFlash

Forecast Challenge 2017-18 update:

Later this season!
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sheabird32
post Jan 20 2015, 05:46 PM
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Well this adds to the excitement of storms we have coming our way over the next couple weeks!
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Undertakerson
post Jan 20 2015, 05:52 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Jan 20 2015, 05:42 PM) *
Stop it! ST

UT....got your message. Checking...Not likely but will advise via PM

laugh.gif

Here we go again mon ami! Understood and all good. cool.gif
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Undertakerson
post Jan 20 2015, 05:58 PM
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Despite St's admonishment - I just re-read and wanted to add that, oddly - to me - - this time the GFS had been pushing the northern stream over top the western ridge. That feature was the biggest change this run and allowed the front edge of the ridge to make room for the back edge of the longwave H5 trough. The stone in the pool effect kicks in and we have a second significant storm "potential" very much at play.

OT Edit - Paul Knight on Weatherworld just ended the SW segment - let's just say its easier to list the days without snow between now and 2/1, the arctic air returns is their other message.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 20 2015, 06:01 PM
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Storms R us
post Jan 20 2015, 06:24 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 20 2015, 05:35 PM) *
Well hello there Baltimore


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DC and Delmarva; but again it's a ways away, of course if these storms hit I'll be out of town returning end of month.
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Storms R us
post Jan 20 2015, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 20 2015, 05:58 PM) *
Despite St's admonishment - I just re-read and wanted to add that, oddly - to me - - this time the GFS had been pushing the northern stream over top the western ridge. That feature was the biggest change this run and allowed the front edge of the ridge to make room for the back edge of the longwave H5 trough. The stone in the pool effect kicks in and we have a second significant storm "potential" very much at play.

OT Edit - Paul Knight on Weatherworld just ended the SW segment - let's just say its easier to list the days without snow between now and 2/1, the arctic air returns is their other message.



When is the arctic air suppose to come in or try and make an appearance? Where about as in how far south and is it EC or Midwest?
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WEATHERFAN100
post Jan 20 2015, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 20 2015, 06:27 PM) *
When is the arctic air suppose to come in or try and make an appearance? Where about as in how far south and is it EC or Midwest?

This suggests fairly soon:

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Storms R us
post Jan 20 2015, 06:52 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Jan 20 2015, 06:37 PM) *
This suggests fairly soon:

Attached Image


Thank you and we shall see how much below normal as the Delmarva normal 44F; BWI is 42F.
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