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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 7 2018, 12:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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This would absolutely destroy those 2 islands in the northeast quadrant. 06z GFS has it getting down to 864mb, 6mb lower than the all-time record. 12z GFS down to 868mb.

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2333849 · Replies: · Views: 8,027

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Sep 7 2018, 02:31 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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This will obviously have an impact on our weather. NHC/JMA has identified tropical depression 26. If you've been paying attention to the models in the west Pacific, you'd know this will certainly impact the global weather pattern based on how strong this system is.

I've been waiting for this system to be named, and now it is. I found out by seeing this tweet that Anthony Masiello retweeted (so you know it's legit).



I verified it independently. Here you can see that, as of the time of advisory, the maximum sustained winds were 20. This was even true for 24 hours in advance (so 17 hours from this post).

At hour 120, this system is expected to have maximum sustained winds of 135 knots.

To summarize the report..

00 hour: 20 knots, 30 knot gusts
12 hour: 30 knots, 40 knot gusts
24 hour: 40 knots, 50 knot gusts
36 hour: 45 knots, 55 knot gusts
48 hour: 55 knots, 70 knot gusts
72 hour: 75 knots, 90 knot gusts (category 1)
96 hour: 105 knots, 130 knot gusts (category 2)
120 hour: 135 knots, 165 knot gusts (category 4)

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/west...mp;map=forecast

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2333839 · Replies: · Views: 8,027

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 6 2018, 11:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Aug 6 2018, 03:12 PM) *
DTX finally issues their first Severe Thunderstorm Watch of the year. Although I can't say it's for the most impressive threat of all-time. Interesting nonetheless!

That's actually insane
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333312 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Aug 4 2018, 11:35 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Aug 4 2018, 07:33 PM) *
Appears Cincy had a nice microburst.

Don't see a lone report like that too often around here.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2333142 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 11:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


2 new wind damage reports in Ohio from the cluster that's currently in SE MI tagged with "possible tornado".

These storms have been only 25k feet tall at most. Considering summer convection usually goes from 30k-60k feet tall, that's fall-like.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332813 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 11:04 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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A couple tornado warnings in SE MI now. The tornado area in Ohio is now under southerly flow, the tornado area in SE MI is under the southeasterly flow.


  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332811 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 10:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 31 2018, 10:54 PM) *
Pretty impressive how long it's been tornado warned.

A friend was contemplating chasing today. I'm sure it would've been worth it if you had the patience. Though there are no tornado reports yet, I bet you'd see some interesting things. Also might've gotten to see some sweet clouds since there were intermittent breaks in clouds.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332808 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 09:44 PM


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Still tornado warned. Very far away from radars but inflow has strengthened, has more of a broad supercell look right now. The circulation is just west of Marion.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332805 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 07:59 PM


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ILN sounding is within the warm sector. Tornado happened where the surface winds are southeasterly and LCL is even lower

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332801 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 31 2018, 07:47 PM


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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 31 2018, 08:43 PM) *
Tornado on the ground near Urbana Ohio.

Not surprised. Nice directional shear and instability but weak low-level speed shear. Low-level speed shear has increased in the past few hours though.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332799 · Replies: · Views: 14,468

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 21 2018, 11:47 PM


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'meh' verification. North half of moderate risk verified, the rest not so much. MCS/cold pool/redevelopment certainly threw a wrench in the forecast. As for further south, simply nothing took advantage of the insane setup.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332226 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 10:30 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Impressive MCD for an overnight severe threat



QUOTE
Mesoscale Discussion 1112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1020 PM CDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Areas affected...much of Kentucky...Tennessee...Arkansas...northern
Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

Valid 210320Z - 210515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat of severe weather continues across a large area
from AR to the OH river with multiple potential corridors of severe.

DISCUSSION...A strongly unstable and sheared air mass currently
extends from AR to KY, and southward into MS and northern AL. The
synoptic setup continues to be favorable tonight for continued
development with cooling aloft and a jet max diving southeast out of
MO.

Currently, severe storms extend from the front along the OH river
southward across eastern KY and TN where supercells were noted on
radar. These storms are located near the eastern extent of the most
unstable air, but are being supported by west/southwest low-level
winds. Some of these cells may have tornado potential, along with
large hail and damaging winds. The storms to the north along the OH
river are more linear in mode, and clearly contain damaging wind
potential. This line could potentially exhibit QLCS structure at
times.

To the west, a rapid increase of storms has occurred across central
AR, and this cluster will likely persist into MS with mainly a
damaging wind and hail threat. A tornado cannot be ruled out
embedded within this line.

Meanwhile, middle and western TN has remained free of storms except
for a few showers earlier this evening that eventually turned into
supercells across eastern TN. The environment over middle TN
continues to be quite favorable, conditionally, for supercells,
including the threat of tornadoes. However, there is currently
little focus to initiate storms. That said, cooling aloft persists
and there is little if any CIN. An earlier attempt at a storm was
seen recently across southern middle TN, suggesting other attempts
could follow this evening. Therefore, the area will remain under a
tornado watch.


Convective outlook/watches as of 11:34PM. That cluster in Kansas might produce a nice swath of severe reports... it's got the environment and the forcing
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332135 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 09:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Last round of severe convection just popped. HRRR has this being a long-lived squall, traveling south-southeast through eastern Tennessee and all of Georgia in the next 18 hours.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332128 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 08:08 PM


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Discrete supercell southwest of Louisville
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332115 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 06:58 PM


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Parameters are absurd across the new tornado watch. 4000-6000 CAPE with 50-70 knots effective shear and strong directional shear. Low-level speed shear is weak, should help keep the tornado threat down a bit.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332109 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 03:49 PM


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Impressive shear for this time of year. Clearly it's been storming though.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332100 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 03:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Watching those storms southeast of Indianapolis... not expecting that much out of them but who knows.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332094 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jul 20 2018, 03:40 PM) *
Storms popped just east of Indianapolis. Appears to be the next batch to keep an eye on.

Shear and CAPE are best in the south... we shall see.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332085 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:34 PM


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Another supercell possibly turning tornadic southeast of Louisville.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332082 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Storms are popping west of current convection... i.e., closer to the unstable air. Interesting for severe potential and storm training.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332077 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 02:02 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jul 20 2018, 02:56 PM) *
Just had a wall of wind and rain - near whiteout for a minute.

And the backyard has the typical river running through it.

Getting that now. Free car wash. Really impressive.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332074 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:52 PM


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Dang... 18z HRRR initialized pretty well

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332067 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:46 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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We might get up to 400 CAPE today guys laugh.gif

QUOTE
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Gearing up for the potential for severe storms in multiple
rounds this afternoon and evening. Persistent storms over KILN
during morning balloon launch time prevented a 12z sounding, but
expect additional sounding to be launched as close to 17z as
possible, avoiding any existing storms.

Complicated forecast through the afternoon, with multiple rounds
of storms. For the most part storms currently pushing through
the area will be benign as they are mainly elevated in nature,
but a stronger storm with small hail and wind gusts to 40mph and
small hail can`t be ruled out.

After a late morning/early afternoon lull, increasing
instability with MU CAPE approaching 2500 to even 400 j/Kg in
especially the SW forecast area combined with 0-6km bulk shear
of 30+ kts. An even more impressive 0-3km shear increase to
45 to 50kt between 20-00z which raises a concern for severe
storms as well as low level rotation, especially where discreet
storms have the greatest potential in forming in the SW. A fair
amount of uncertainty as far as what this mornings storms may
do to dampen instability this afternoon. But with the stacked
low, lifting warm front and low level shear coinciding during
favorable diurnal instability, current thinking is that
especially the low level shear and steepening lapse rates
pushing into the region should be enough to overcome of this.

Have tried to update the timing of thunderstorms in the existing
forecast, enhancing the threat for strong storms in the western
forecast area just slightly earlier than previous forecast.

The overall nature of storm movement and recent dry conditions
do not lend to a highly favorable flash flood scenario, but will
be watching areas where thunderstorm lines become E-W oriented,
as well as slower moving discreet or supercell storms track.


Jokes aside, still sounds like we may not be done.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332060 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Narrow axis of instability extending up through central IN.



  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332055 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jul 20 2018, 01:20 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Looks like some houses were in the vicinity of that rotation... probably some house debris in those scans. Tornado has made a turn left and weakened.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2332052 · Replies: · Views: 24,610

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