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AccuWeather.com Forums _ Current Weather - United States _ January 11-14 Plains/MW/OV Winter Storm OBS

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 08:39 AM

Give it a go!

 

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 08:43 AM

"new thread new me" - Less bitter than 12 hours ago laugh.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 08:52 AM

looking like with the SE jog majority of the snow now falls in the low 20s and high teens 20 MPH sustained winds. Solid setup if we get the QPF

Posted by: cheezemm2 Jan 11 2018, 08:57 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 08:52 AM) *
looking like with the SE jog majority of the snow now falls in the low 20s and high teens 20 MPH sustained winds. Solid setup if we get the QPF


Only in Ohio can you see this quote, look over at your avatar and realize it's 52 degrees right now. I'm running the dog in shorts annnnnd making sure my snow shovel is ready!

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:04 AM

here we go again with this emotional toying....the NAM is looking better...

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 09:05 AM

12Z NAM shows snows starting much earlier than 6Z

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 09:06 AM

10AM EST tomorrow:


Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 09:08 AM

Seems a lot faster, not sure if that's a good thing.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:10 AM

it looks like its a little faster though, and also seems more positively tilted no?

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 09:12 AM

Definitely a bit faster and colder air lagging behind so far. Lets see how it ends.

Side bar: it has been nice these last 2 mornings to get up and take my girl to work without worrying about frostbite lol.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 09:16 AM



Looks like this is getting shoved out quick

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:18 AM

wow maybe not...it looked better on precip maps....but snow maps are bad looking

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 09:18 AM

Not a good run.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:19 AM

looks like sleet dominates

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM

isolated areas in NW OH do well but as a whole this is the worst run yet, by far

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM

.

 

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM

Looks like the low is late, once again, to get its act going.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 09:22 AM

I mean.... I like this run... Sorry!

It takes me from what was an all rain scenario 24 hours ago to rain and snow now.

I know for the OH guys, this is devastating given the 'one for the ages' we were looking at.

Posted by: Solution Man Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM

Pingers and snow mix 30 miles north of Kansas City

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 09:22 AM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM) *
.

Well.....

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:23 AM

Well that was fun...Not smile.gif

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:24 AM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 09:23 AM) *
Well that was fun...Not smile.gif

im in disbelief how bad that run was, even more than last nights GFS

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:24 AM

Current look. Well, all one can do is hope for some surprises...I am in until the end!

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:25 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:24 AM) *
im in disbelief how bad that run was, even more than last nights GFS



When I saw my SREF means lower I wasn't liking the potential dwindling of the NAM. Heck, I had quite a few members give me 0 inches. That would really be something.

Posted by: ValpoSnow Jan 11 2018, 09:25 AM

NAM doesn't even want me to have LES.

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM

The NAM must be dancing to this song when it comes to snow amounts and axis of snow: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gYE5TyijxE

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM

The 3K NAM, for what it's worth, still appears a bit slower and stronger.

Posted by: ncinthenext3 Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM

This storm just proves that it stinks to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. Snowfall totals that would have been the largest in my lifetime just vaporize. Clown maps! Oh well, on to nowcasting. Let's see where this goes. Take your best shot Hunter.

Posted by: Kokomo1 Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM

One of the better runs for me since this went wagons east.

 

Posted by: Solution Man Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM

Quick flash freeze here now sleet and snow covering everything

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 09:29 AM

Brings me to the question I've asked so many times in the past...Why do I even look at models over 72 hours before the storm? LOL - they are awful with important details until close range is upon us. Can't believe I wasted so much time the last few days tracking this weak mess.

Posted by: ncinthenext3 Jan 11 2018, 09:30 AM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 09:29 AM) *
Brings me to the question I've asked so many times in the past...Why do I even look at models over 72 hours before the storm? LOL - they are awful with important details until close range is upon us. Can't believe I wasted so much time the last few days tracking this weak mess.


I can answer!! Because it's fun, and you would've been able to say you knew what was coming. Heck, you still can.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:32 AM

QUOTE(Solution Man @ Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM) *
Quick flash freeze here now sleet and snow covering everything



Stay safe!

We do have to remember that no matter how this system turns out, it is going to be bad driving conditions with these flash freezes and frozen precip.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:32 AM

it looks like this run of the NAM finds a warm layer that lasts much longer that prior runs and other models leading to its disaster

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 09:32 AM

QUOTE(BuckeyeDiva @ Jan 11 2018, 09:27 AM) *
The 3K NAM, for what it's worth, still appears a bit slower and stronger.


Yep, definitely looks better. We'll see. This will be fun nowcasting. I'm just hoping for a solid 4 inches.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:33 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:32 AM) *
it looks like this run of the NAM finds a warm layer that lasts much longer that prior runs and other models leading to its disaster

nearly 4'' of sleet.....wtf for real.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 09:34 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:33 AM) *
nearly 4'' of sleet.....wtf for real.



Ouch!

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 09:35 AM

The interesting thing about this run is the speed differences. Cranky highlighted this in his outlook on the storm.

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM

Much different.



 

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM

Are you guys manually calculating sleet? Or is there a map for that.

Posted by: Ilovelakeeffect Jan 11 2018, 09:42 AM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 09:29 AM) *
Brings me to the question I've asked so many times in the past...Why do I even look at models over 72 hours before the storm? LOL - they are awful with important details until close range is upon us. Can't believe I wasted so much time the last few days tracking this weak mess.

LOL, I hear ya. Funny thing about that though, I have a blast looking at the models, and the clown maps and getting excited for an impending storm. Then when the big one hits, and its snowing hard, I sometimes question why I get so excited, lol. It's fun, but not as fun as I think its going to be...if that makes any sense. In other words, these are always for me more fun to follow in the forecast period then the event itself.

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 09:44 AM

Comparison of QPF from 6z to 12z. About a full 1 inch less for Lexington.




Posted by: Kokomo1 Jan 11 2018, 09:43 AM

QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Are you guys manually calculating sleet? Or is there a map for that.


TT has a 3 KM NAM that removed sleet called Ferrier Rime Correction.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:45 AM

QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Are you guys manually calculating sleet? Or is there a map for that.

there are tools that come out after the run finishes, but for now I'm looking for pivotal snow maps, and comparing them to TT maps which include sleet, and subtracting that from freezing rain maps on pivotal (not mathematically but by just looking) Once the run finishes and coolwx updates that will give a better breakdown

Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM

My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???


They explained it was the combination of the timing and possibility of mixed precipitation in the write-up.

Posted by: Ilovelakeeffect Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???

I think because of the ice at the on-set, that helped them make the call on the watch versus going straight to an advisory.

Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 09:52 AM

QUOTE(Ilovelakeeffect @ Jan 11 2018, 09:49 AM) *
I think because of the ice at the on-set, that helped them make the call on the watch versus going straight to an advisory.

And in their winter weather watch they say up to .10 of ice... I guess with uncertainty of even last 3 models you still have possibility of 6 plus. Nightmare for any forecaster.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:48 AM) *
My prediction is Winter Storm Warnings will not have to be used.. I actually see the potential for a big goose egg... yep basically no snow. A little surprised ILN went with Winter Storm Watch and then says 2-4 inches???


1 word.

QUOTE
Criteria:
6 inches of snow or 1/2 inch of sleet in 12 hours
...or...
8 inches of snow in 24 hours
4 inches of snow or 1/2 inch of sleet in 12 hours
...or...
6 inches of snow in 24 hours

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM

It's starting to look like we might be lucky just to get 4 inches of snow lol.

Posted by: ncinthenext3 Jan 11 2018, 10:07 AM

QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 09:54 AM) *
It's starting to look like we might be lucky just to get 4 inches of snow lol.


No doubt. What a bust.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:09 AM

I always respect his input...




 

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM

QPF looks to be coming in weak on the RGEM as well comparatively through hour 30

BTW the NAM went from 1.6'' QPF to .50" IMBY....thats insane

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM

RGEM seems a bit weaker with precip so far.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:16 AM

I guess one thing has been nice about this system. The words echoed so often on these forums. The ole "Northwest shift" smile.gif One time that many of us which would come to fruition.

Of course, weaker storm doesn't want to play that game.

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 10:16 AM

Compared to everything else, the RGEM looks great laugh.gif

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:18 AM

The RGEM would probably still be a Nasty sleet storm.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:20 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:11 AM) *
QPF looks to be coming in weak on the RGEM as well comparatively through hour 30

BTW the NAM went from 1.6'' QPF to .50" IMBY....thats insane

and the RGEM is well over 1.6'' QPF...

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 10:21 AM

Wow, really neat info from LMK: http://www.weather.gov/lmk/winter

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:22 AM

yeah RGEM actually goes back to "moderate" storm idea

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:24 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:22 AM) *
yeah RGEM actually goes back to "moderate" storm idea



 

Posted by: KYweather2007 Jan 11 2018, 10:25 AM

I realize its the long range HRRR (and the HRRRX at that) but FWIW 12z run had 998 low in SE KY with a nice deform band stretching from western Kentucky to near Louisville to about Cincy-Dayton area.

Again FWIW at hour 36 which isn't much

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 10:25 AM

Another view FWIW


Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:26 AM

I was just about to mention the HRRRX lol

Posted by: TheReflex Jan 11 2018, 10:27 AM

Now casting event upcoming

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 10:28 AM

So basically, we want it stronger but not too strong and slower but not too slow. lol.

Posted by: ZumaRat Jan 11 2018, 10:28 AM

QUOTE(Kuotations @ Jan 11 2018, 10:21 AM) *
Wow, really neat info from LMK: http://www.weather.gov/lmk/winter


FYI - You can substitute any NWS office 3 letter ID into that URL (ex, change LMK to ILN).

Posted by: jeffro Jan 11 2018, 10:29 AM

While I have faith in the short range models, my arm is really starting to hurt from holding this towel.

Posted by: KYweather2007 Jan 11 2018, 10:29 AM

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrrx&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018011112&fh=36&xpos=0&ypos=459

Posted by: wnwniner Jan 11 2018, 10:30 AM

I'd be happy with that RGEM map. Really just want a nice 4" to 6" storm.

Who was it yesterday that told me Columbus area was a "lock" for a nice storm? HAHA.

Glad I'm already bald and can't loose any more hair over this thing, just really love my winter storms!

Posted by: J Wassmer Jan 11 2018, 10:31 AM

QUOTE(ncinthenext3 @ Jan 11 2018, 09:07 AM) *
No doubt. What a bust.

Geez, four inches is a lot of snow IMBY. We had nothing last year and have had nothing so far this winter. Yeah, I'm as disappointed as everyone that this won't be a shut down event, but four inches for many in this forum is a lot.

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:32 AM

I will always remember the RGEM for being the only model to show a WSW type snow down in North Texas(also happened to be the last WSW for us.) Ended up getting 6 inches of snow in Early March. Not bad for Texas lol. Would love for the RGEM to come in the clutch once again

Posted by: kerbs Jan 11 2018, 10:33 AM

QUOTE(ZumaRat @ Jan 11 2018, 10:28 AM) *
FYI - You can substitute any NWS office 3 letter ID into that URL (ex, change LMK to ILN).

Yes!

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:35 AM

QUOTE(J Wassmer @ Jan 11 2018, 10:31 AM) *
Geez, four inches is a lot of snow IMBY. We had nothing last year and have had nothing so far this winter. Yeah, I'm as disappointed as everyone that this won't be a shut down event, but four inches for many in this forum is a lot.



Not to mention that a model changing its tune does not constitute a storm bust. A forecast calling for a x to y of (any precip type) and having it fall well short or well above the call is a bust.

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:38 AM

The GFS looks like it's going to be even worse lol.

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 10:40 AM

GFS better for Ohio than 0z. Widespread 4-5". 6" lollipop near Dayton and widespread 6"+ in extreme NE Ohio.

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 10:40 AM

Short terms are slowly breathing life back into it, GFS appears to as well. Still can't believe the differences... we had consensus among globals not too long ago laugh.gif Figures it would be chaotic the days before.

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:42 AM

Looks like I spoke too soon lol. Might have to take this run and run with it xD.

Posted by: DCBlizzard Jan 11 2018, 10:43 AM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 09:21 AM) *
.


Sorry Rob, from a fellow Cincinnatian - you were just NAM'd!

Posted by: KYweather2007 Jan 11 2018, 10:43 AM

GFS best run it has had in a while. H5 looks slightly different contributing to differential in totals.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM

QUOTE(DCBlizzard @ Jan 11 2018, 10:43 AM) *
Sorry Rob, from a fellow Cincinnatian - you were just NAM'd!



Greetings, DCBlizzard.....I am a little north of ya as I live in the south suburb area of Dayton. Greetings, no less!

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM

12z GFS gives me 6-8" of snow, 06z gave me 2-4" and 0z gave me 1-3" laugh.gif

Posted by: beaver56 Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM

Anyone have the GFS map? I am guessing I will be on the cutoff again.

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM

Model mayhem!

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM

QUOTE(beaver56 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM) *
Anyone have the GFS map? I am guessing I will be on the cutoff again.


IWM

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM

0 to 6 inches seems like a good bet IMBY wink.gif rolleyes.gif

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM) *
12z GFS gives me 6-8" of snow, 06z gave me 2-4" and 0z gave me 1-3" laugh.gif


Next one 9-12? laugh.gif

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 10:47 AM) *
IWM


Lock. It. IN.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:49 AM

it looks like the QPF of the NAM was really wonky....odd to see the 3KM so far differentiated from the 12KM in QPF....followed by the RGEM and GFS im calling 12KM an outlier run this cycle (again not even on snow, but overall QPF)

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 10:49 AM

Kuchera gives some more snow in LES zones and a bit more in OH, Would assume its better ratios than in KY as that Met gave a good point.

Posted by: DCBlizzard Jan 11 2018, 10:50 AM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM) *
Greetings, DCBlizzard.....I am a little north of ya as I live in the south suburb area of Dayton. Greetings, no less!


Hey Rob - I meant to same "former". Grew up in cincy and worked for Bank One in Dayton in the mid-late 90s before moving to the east coast. I certainly feel your pain as we had 3.5 inches in 2016/2017 and have had nothing but a cold desert in the DC area this winter while it has snowed north, south, east and west of us...

Good luck with the storm. Rooting for my fellow midwesterner's. Just hope it holds off until midday tomorrow as my parents are driving to Naples for a couple of months of sun.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 10:50 AM

.

 

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 10:51 AM

Was there anything anybody saw in the operational NAM that contributed to less OPF overall? And the 3K NAM.. is its updated cousin, yes?

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 10:51 AM

If we got something in between the 3k nam/RGEM and the GFS I think a lot of us in Ohio would be very happy(though Dayton does really well on the GFS too lol.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:53 AM

QUOTE(DCBlizzard @ Jan 11 2018, 10:50 AM) *
Hey Rob - I meant to same "former". Grew up in cincy and worked for Bank One in Dayton in the mid-late 90s before moving to the east coast. I certainly feel your pain as we had 3.5 inches in 2016/2017 and have had nothing but a cold desert in the DC area this winter while it has snowed north, south, east and west of us...

Good luck with the storm. Rooting for my fellow midwesterner's. Just hope it holds off until midday tomorrow as my parents are driving to Naples for a couple of months of sun.



Roger that! A safe trip to them!

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 10:54 AM

That's a nice tilt on the storm at the end of the HRRR FWIW laugh.gif


 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 10:55 AM

In a non winter part of these systems, I have seen .32 inches of rain already this morning.

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 10:57 AM

Latest RAP V5

 

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 11:03 AM

Didn't realize this warranted someone from TWC to come to our area...


Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 11:02 AM

And GFS V5 trends, sorry for train of images, off to pick up some stuff in Springfield.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 11:04 AM

FYI, I posted GFS snow map for the clipper in the appropriate thread.

Now back to this regularly scheduled program.

Posted by: ZumaRat Jan 11 2018, 11:04 AM

Looking at the last 3 runs of the GFS, snow totals keep getting nudged upward ever so slightly.

Same goes for total storm QPF.

 

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 11:13 AM


Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 11:14 AM


Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 11:16 AM

CMC

 

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 11:17 AM

Not too familiar with the RDPS model (Is it also called CMC?). What's it's overall reliability/strengths and weaknesses?

Posted by: jasonus03 Jan 11 2018, 11:20 AM

Telling you guys, I think this storm is going to be stronger than being shown. Whether it's sleet, freezing rain, or snow.....it'll probably end up surprising some people.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 11:21 AM

QUOTE(Kuotations @ Jan 11 2018, 11:17 AM) *
Not too familiar with the RDPS model (Is it also called CMC?). What's it's overall reliability/strengths and weaknesses?

the RGEM/RDPS is a higher resolution of the CMC built for short range. Theres actually an even higher resolution Canadian model now called the HRDPS. It's somewhat reliable in the short range but has a tendency to over amp (like the NAM) at times

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 11:22 AM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:21 AM) *
the RGEM/RDPS is a higher resolution of the CMC built for short range. Theres actually an even higher resolution Canadian model now called the HRDPS. It's somewhat reliable in the short range but has a tendency to over amp (like the NAM) at times

the only kicker of the HRDPS is since its built for Canada the model only spans regions closer to the border

Its running now ill post as it does

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 11:30 AM

Somehow knew we weren't done with this. Nice to still have hope.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Jan 11 2018, 11:31 AM

Y'all are talking about winter weather... NWS Charleston (NWS office that covers for Athens) is talking about flooding. 1.5-2.5 inches of rain + frozen rivers + recently melted snowpack. Then we have the "flash freeze" post-front.

Fun.

QUOTE
We are becoming increasingly concerned for flooding overnight
tonight across the West Virginia Lowlands. Good upper level
divergence coupled with impressive llvl moisture advection and a
developing ssw to nne deformation band, will allow moderate
rain to quick develop this evening and continue overnight with
training a distinct possibility. The near term and global models
are rather consistent on where this axis sets up, with varying
QPF amounts within this narrow axis range from 1.5 inches to
2.5 inches (juiced up NAM). With ice still in the rivers and a
ground that is unable to soak up any rain...there is concern for
flooding issues and thus a watch is being strongly considered.
We want to see the 12Z GFS before any final decisions are made.


Here's the heavy rain banding they're talking about. Hope it moves west a little bit.



Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 11:34 AM

CMC does give some hope, we'll have to see what the Euro shows.

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Jan 11 2018, 11:35 AM

Flood watch issued. Sweet.


Posted by: TheReflex Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:31 AM) *
Y'all are talking about winter weather... NWS Charleston (NWS office that covers for Athens) is talking about flooding. 1.5-2.5 inches of rain + frozen rivers + recently melted snowpack. Then we have the "flash freeze" post-front.

Fun.
Here's the heavy rain banding they're talking about. Hope it moves west a little bit.


Went from snow last night to flooding

Every little wiggle of the storm changes things

Knew last night that there would still be some wiggling to be done

Hope you guys to our west get your snow and get a big one , may as well be some happy posters in here

Posted by: TheReflex Jan 11 2018, 11:37 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:35 AM) *
Flood watch issued. Sweet.



Im feeling your pain

Posted by: bigben89 Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 11:13 AM) *


This needs to go SE about 60 miles... C'mon man!

Posted by: ClicheVortex2014 Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM

QUOTE(TheReflex @ Jan 11 2018, 11:36 AM) *
Went from snow last night to flooding

Every little wiggle of the storm changes things

Knew last night that there would still be some wiggling to be done

Hope you guys to our west get your snow and get a big one , may as well be some happy posters in here

I'll be happy with this storm. I like anomalous weather. With this solution I get warmth, then flooding, a few inches of snow, and then the flash freeze.

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 11:39 AM

QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:20 AM) *
Telling you guys, I think this storm is going to be stronger than being shown. Whether it's sleet, freezing rain, or snow.....it'll probably end up surprising some people.


You need to start supporting these calls with something of substance.

Posted by: jasonus03 Jan 11 2018, 11:45 AM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 10:39 AM) *
You need to start supporting these calls with something of substance.


Oh, so sorry I spoke out of term. Please forgive me.

I have already said that it is simply a hunch. I don't see why it's such a big deal that I say something like this. No big deal though. I just won't post anymore.

I'm out.

Posted by: HassayWx2306 Jan 11 2018, 11:45 AM

Sitting pretty somewhere between 6-11 inches cool.gif good luck all

Posted by: N.Indianaweather Jan 11 2018, 11:50 AM

Nice temp differential. Here it comes. Screen shot from storm radar blink.gif








Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 11:53 AM

QUOTE(N.Indianaweather @ Jan 11 2018, 11:50 AM) *
Nice temp differential. Here it comes. Screen shot from storm radar blink.gif




Another look


 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 11:55 AM

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:38 AM) *
I'll be happy with this storm. I like anomalous weather. With this solution I get warmth, then flooding, a few inches of snow, and then the flash freeze.



I like your thinking!

Posted by: grace Jan 11 2018, 11:56 AM

12z ARW is very interesting. System moves very slowly. Wish it were uploaded already at Tropical Tidbits so I could see temp profiles better. It's the best run I've seen today

See what you think:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2018011112&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=

Posted by: grace Jan 11 2018, 12:00 PM

And...good luck to All! And may the force be with you! smile.gif

Posted by: ValpoSnow Jan 11 2018, 12:02 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Jan 11 2018, 10:56 AM) *
12z ARW is very interesting. System moves very slowly. Wish it were uploaded already at Tropical Tidbits so I could see temp profiles better. It's the best run I've seen today

See what you think:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2018011112&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=


I like what it's showing for LES!





 

Posted by: grace Jan 11 2018, 12:05 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Jan 11 2018, 10:56 AM) *
12z ARW is very interesting. System moves very slowly. Wish it were uploaded already at Tropical Tidbits so I could see temp profiles better. It's the best run I've seen today

See what you think:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2018011112&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=



Saw thermal profiles....good snows in S. Illinois. Heaviest axis runs from where Illinois & Ky meet on Ohio River, then NE to SW Michigan

Posted by: vtownsnow Jan 11 2018, 12:08 PM

I think we are getting closer to having to use the dreaded nowcasting. Models are struggling with timing of that cold air push

Posted by: grace Jan 11 2018, 12:08 PM

QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 11 2018, 11:02 AM) *
I like what it's showing for LES!



Look how slow it is compared to other models.

I noticed 12z GFS slowed down a little. Maybe hints?

Posted by: grace Jan 11 2018, 12:08 PM

QUOTE(vtownsnow @ Jan 11 2018, 11:08 AM) *
I think we are getting closer to having to use the dreaded nowcasting. Models are struggling with timing of that cold air push



Indeed!

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 12:08 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Jan 11 2018, 12:05 PM) *
Saw thermal profiles....good snows in S. Illinois. Heaviest axis runs from where Illinois & Ky meet on Ohio River, then NE to SW Michigan


What's the background on this model from a reliability perspective?

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:10 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Jan 11 2018, 12:00 PM) *
And...good luck to All! And may the force be with you! smile.gif



Is that a Star Trek thing??? wink.gif biggrin.gif

Posted by: vtownsnow Jan 11 2018, 12:12 PM

Every time the totals go up indicates a slowing of the storm. I would start tracking temps to the NW

Posted by: vtownsnow Jan 11 2018, 12:13 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:08 PM) *
What's the background on this model from a reliability perspective?

Anything not named GFS, EURO or NAM I just even less then these 3

Posted by: beaver56 Jan 11 2018, 12:14 PM

Did anyone see what Ukie did? Just curious as I have not heard.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:21 PM

QUOTE(beaver56 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:14 PM) *
Did anyone see what Ukie did? Just curious as I have not heard.

.







 

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 12:20 PM

QUOTE(beaver56 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:14 PM) *
Did anyone see what Ukie did? Just curious as I have not heard.

Looks like its a little stronger too.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:26 PM

Southwest Ohio area...

 

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 12:27 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:26 PM) *
Southwest Ohio area...

Almost 3 years. That's just sad.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:28 PM

I enjoyed this tweet too much smile.gif

https://twitter.com/stormchasernick/status/951463065123545088

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:30 PM

.

 

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 12:31 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:26 PM) *
Southwest Ohio area...

Amazing...

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 12:34 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:26 PM) *
Southwest Ohio area...

Id love to know what that Feb 2016 storm yielded.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:39 PM

QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 11 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Id love to know what that Feb 2016 storm yielded.


You talking about the Jan 22nd warning in your area?

Not sure what you received but here is an article on the forecast at the time

http://www.fox19.com/story/31026429/all-kentucky-state-government-offices-will-be-closed-friday-due-to-winter-storm-warning

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 12:42 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:21 AM) *
the RGEM/RDPS is a higher resolution of the CMC built for short range. Theres actually an even higher resolution Canadian model now called the HRDPS. It's somewhat reliable in the short range but has a tendency to over amp (like the NAM) at times



QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 11:22 AM) *
the only kicker of the HRDPS is since its built for Canada the model only spans regions closer to the border

Its running now ill post as it does



 

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 12:44 PM

Is the RDPS on on http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011112&fh=48&r=us_ov&dpdt= the same thing?

Edit: Nevermind.. I see the HRDPS is higher res!

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 12:44 PM

QUOTE(jasonus03 @ Jan 11 2018, 10:45 AM) *
Oh, so sorry I spoke out of term. Please forgive me.

I have already said that it is simply a hunch. I don't see why it's such a big deal that I say something like this. No big deal though. I just won't post anymore.

I'm out.


Please reread what you agreed to here.

QUOTE
11. No Wishcasting: Our Community is not a place to post "theoretical" or "perfect storm" predictions. "Wishcasting" is hoping for extreme weather outside of the consensus forecast, often beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit (including "bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason). If you can't support your forecast with the parameters of at least one forecast model, or quotes from other forecasters, you shouldn't post it. If you are going to explain your forecast by citing other websites / meteorologists that agree with you, you MUST source them (see #16).


You admitted that you had already stated it, so that gives more merit to why you needed to support it. Kicking your feet in the dirt because you were asked to follow what you agreed to when you joined the forum won't bode well.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 12:45 PM

QUOTE(BuckeyeDiva @ Jan 11 2018, 12:44 PM) *
Is the RDPS on on http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=rdps&p=snku_acc&rh=2018011112&fh=48&r=us_ov&dpdt= the same thing?

in reference to the above? No this is a new higher resolution of the RDPS

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 12:46 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:45 PM) *
in reference to the above? No this is a new higher resolution of the RDPS


Yep.. I missed what you had said, sorry!

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 12:48 PM

QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 11 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Id love to know what that Feb 2016 storm yielded.






 

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 12:48 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:39 PM) *
You talking about the Jan 22nd warning in your area?

Not sure what you received but here is an article on the forecast at the time

http://www.fox19.com/story/31026429/all-kentucky-state-government-offices-will-be-closed-friday-due-to-winter-storm-warning

The map said Feb 9th 2016 was the last warning issued for me here. Thanks for the article though. I like to get a revisit on past stormsas I dont have that great of memory when it comes to dates of storms and such.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 12:49 PM

QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 11 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Id love to know what that Feb 2016 storm yielded.



QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:39 PM) *
You talking about the Jan 22nd warning in your area?

Not sure what you received but here is an article on the forecast at the time

http://www.fox19.com/story/31026429/all-kentucky-state-government-offices-will-be-closed-friday-due-to-winter-storm-warning

they finally have the new and improved archive site setup and its awesome and incredibly user friendly

https://www.weather.gov/iln/events

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:50 PM

QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 11 2018, 12:48 PM) *
The map said Feb 9th 2016 was the last warning issued for me here. Thanks for the article though. I like to get a revisit on past stormsas I dont have that great of memory when it comes to dates of storms and such.



My bad, I looked at the yellow but not close enough to realize Cincy was not in it smile.gif Sorry...

Posted by: BrenK10 Jan 11 2018, 12:50 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 10:55 AM) *
In a non winter part of these systems, I have seen .32 inches of rain already this morning.

sure did rain pretty good. Worked all morning to get the Christmas lights down and few things in yard done. Rather be out there in the rain and warmth than cold and snow on ground get lights down.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:50 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:49 PM) *
they finally have the new and improved archive site setup and its awesome and incredibly user friendly

https://www.weather.gov/iln/events



Nice.

Thanks for the link.

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 12:50 PM

Thanks Buck. Looks like a nice 2-4 inches across the county. Id kill for that right now.

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 12:52 PM

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 11 2018, 12:49 PM) *
they finally have the new and improved archive site setup and its awesome and incredibly user friendly

https://www.weather.gov/iln/events

Thats great. Bookmarking that right now!

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:50 PM) *
My bad, I looked at the yellow but not close enough to realize Cincy was not in it smile.gif Sorry...

That looks like one of those storms that clobbered Kentucky. A rare southern special.

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 12:53 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 10:54 AM) *
Downstream temperature contrast:


https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Marshall+Municipal+Airport,+South+Odell+Avenue,+Maall,+MO/Columbia+Regional+Airport+(COU),+South+Airport+Dri+Columbia,+MO/@39.0245679,-92.9946627,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x87c3af6724c3dd59:0x401fc55a5aa5f308!2m2!1d-93.1986774!2d39.0979967!1m5!1m1!1s0x87dcbca115e87c4b:0xe6596404a308f892!2m2!1d-92.2193772!2d38.8155232 between Marshall Municipal Airport to my WNW and Columbia Regional Airport.

21 difference as of 11:35am.

55 COU and 34 MHL

Posted by: ZumaRat Jan 11 2018, 12:52 PM

QUOTE(Snow____ @ Jan 11 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Id love to know what that Feb 2016 storm yielded.


Not much if you go by this: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/eventdetails.jsp?id=620183


Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 12:53 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 12:53 PM) *
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Marshall+Municipal+Airport,+South+Odell+Avenue,+Mall,+MO/Columbia+Regional+Airport+(COU),+South+Airport+DriColumbia,+MO/@39.0245679,-92.9946627,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x87c3af6724c3dd59:0x401fc55a5aa5f308!2m2!1d-93.1986774!2d39.0979967!1m5!1m1!1s0x87dcbca115e87c4b:0xe6596404a308f892!2m2!1d-92.2193772!2d38.8155232 between Marshall Municipal Airport to my WNW and Columbia Regional Airport.

21 difference as of 11:35am.

55 COU and 34 MHL


Insane.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:54 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 12:53 PM) *
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Marshall+Municipal+Airport,+South+Odell+Avenue,+Mall,+MO/Columbia+Regional+Airport+(COU),+South+Airport+DriColumbia,+MO/@39.0245679,-92.9946627,10z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x87c3af6724c3dd59:0x401fc55a5aa5f308!2m2!1d-93.1986774!2d39.0979967!1m5!1m1!1s0x87dcbca115e87c4b:0xe6596404a308f892!2m2!1d-92.2193772!2d38.8155232 between Marshall Municipal Airport to my WNW and Columbia Regional Airport.

21 difference as of 11:35am.

55 COU and 34 MHL



Impressive....

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:56 PM

FWIW....48 Total precip from the UKMET

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 12:58 PM

.







 

Posted by: grennels Jan 11 2018, 12:58 PM

Arrrgh. HRDPS gives me 2" one county away from 7"

Posted by: HassayWx2306 Jan 11 2018, 12:59 PM

Bird chirping away and 60 IMBY this feels great but also shows this is going to be one heck of a storm isnt it

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:00 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:56 PM) *
FWIW....48 Total precip from the UKMET

FWIW ... total precip through 00z Sunday from the German ICON

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:00 PM

Day 1 Euro


 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:02 PM

Waiting on MAUE's maps did be away from the 24 hour increments. Day 2 placement from Euro

 

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 01:02 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:58 PM) *
.

Great track. But well see.

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 01:04 PM

Looks better organized on the Euro 24 hour maps.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:04 PM

Maue Maps at hour 24 for 12Z Euro


 

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:05 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:02 PM) *
Waiting on MAUE's maps did be away from the 24 hour increments. Day 2 placement from Euro

4 mb stronger than yesterday's 12z and a touch slower as well.

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 01:04 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:56 PM) *
FWIW....48 Total precip from the UKMET



QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 12:58 PM) *
.

You can see a sliver of 1.4-1.6" QPF pushing fron Frankfort, KY towards Springfield, Ohio. Hopefully that's snow wrapping around. Also nice to see the SLP end up over Morgantown (Sorry STL J) and not towards DC.

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 01:05 PM

Good wallop for W. PA, E. OH. SE of 71 is the place to be, per the Euro.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:06 PM

hour 30 MSLP


 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:08 PM

36

 

Posted by: ValpoSnow Jan 11 2018, 01:07 PM

WxTwitter



 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:09 PM

42

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:10 PM

And 48

 

Posted by: Snow____ Jan 11 2018, 01:10 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:09 PM) *
42

East of where Id like it but beggars cant be choosers right?

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:11 PM

QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:04 PM) *
You can see a sliver of 1.4-1.6" QPF pushing fron Frankfort, KY towards Springfield, Ohio. Hopefully that's snow wrapping around. Also nice to see the SLP end up over Morgantown (Sorry STL J) and not towards DC.

Nothing to feel sorry about, I am at least 75% confident the low will track up the east side of the Appalachians (probably ~100 miles to my east). Also, I'm in a unique position to root for an ice event. I have sensors in place to make a quick case-study type publication of elevation dependence of ice accretion during this event.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:12 PM

Gotta love the different places the models place the better qpfs and such.Yes, I know it is high rez we should look at, but we all continue to look at them all smile.gif

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:13 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 01:11 PM) *
Nothing to feel sorry about, I am at least 75% confident the low will track up the east side of the Appalachians (probably ~100 miles to my east). Also, I'm in a unique position to root for an ice event. I have sensors in place to make a quick case-study type publication of elevation dependence of ice accretion during this event.



Very cool!

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM

Text IMBY...Meh smile.gif

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z JAN11
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN  11.4     9.2    1017      92      49    0.00     573     558    
THU 18Z 11-JAN  11.3     9.2    1014      91      92    0.12     570     559    
FRI 00Z 12-JAN  12.5     9.4    1012      94      47    0.06     568     558    
FRI 06Z 12-JAN  11.0     9.0    1008      96      98    0.04     564     557    
FRI 12Z 12-JAN   1.8     6.7    1009      97      77    0.31     560     553    
FRI 18Z 12-JAN  -0.6    -0.2    1013      89      94    0.09     556     546    
SAT 00Z 13-JAN  -4.1    -4.4    1017      76      96    0.14     552     539    
SAT 06Z 13-JAN  -7.4    -8.0    1022      53      42    0.05     548     531    
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -10.4   -12.3    1029      57       5    0.00     546     524


Of course, it has already busted low IMBY with this morning's rain.

QPF is always a *cra p* shoot

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM

Euro snow.


Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:12 PM) *
Gotta love the different places the models place the better qpfs and such.Yes, I know it is high rez we should look at, but we all continue to look at them all smile.gif

High-res models are great, especially when you cut the QPF totals in half laugh.gif

Most people seem to forget that step.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM

Rob.. PBZ?

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 01:15 PM

QUOTE(adurb44 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:05 PM) *
Good wallop for W. PA, E. OH. SE of 71 is the place to be, per the Euro.

Meh, Euro definitely hasn't been King with this storm or in general lately, but still.

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:16 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM) *
Text IMBY...Meh smile.gif

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z JAN11
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN  11.4     9.2    1017      92      49    0.00     573     558    
THU 18Z 11-JAN  11.3     9.2    1014      91      92    0.12     570     559    
FRI 00Z 12-JAN  12.5     9.4    1012      94      47    0.06     568     558    
FRI 06Z 12-JAN  11.0     9.0    1008      96      98    0.04     564     557    
FRI 12Z 12-JAN   1.8     6.7    1009      97      77    0.31     560     553    
FRI 18Z 12-JAN  -0.6    -0.2    1013      89      94    0.09     556     546    
SAT 00Z 13-JAN  -4.1    -4.4    1017      76      96    0.14     552     539    
SAT 06Z 13-JAN  -7.4    -8.0    1022      53      42    0.05     548     531    
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -10.4   -12.3    1029      57       5    0.00     546     524


Of course, it has already busted low IMBY with this morning's rain.

QPF is always a *bleep* shoot

Can I trouble you for KMGW? Thank you in advance good sir.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:17 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM) *
High-res models are great, especially when you cut the QPF totals in half laugh.gif

Most people seem to forget that step.



Many times, yep!

Of course, I was thinking low placement in this case.

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 01:17 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:12 PM) *
Gotta love the different places the models place the better qpfs and such.Yes, I know it is high rez we should look at, but we all continue to look at them all smile.gif

With the Euro being a little stronger, I would have expected the precip shield to be a little more west.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:18 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 01:16 PM) *
Can I trouble you for KMGW? Thank you in advance good sir.



Here ya go!

CODE

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MGW LAT= 39.63 LON= -79.92 ELE= 1247

12Z JAN11
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN 7.5 9.3 1023 88 54 0.00 577 558
THU 18Z 11-JAN 14.4 12.1 1019 70 92 0.00 576 560
FRI 00Z 12-JAN 11.6 12.0 1016 98 92 0.08 575 562
FRI 06Z 12-JAN 10.4 11.4 1011 99 97 0.22 572 562
FRI 12Z 12-JAN 8.6 10.6 1008 100 100 0.41 568 562
FRI 18Z 12-JAN 16.8 11.1 1004 84 93 0.38 564 560
SAT 00Z 13-JAN 0.0 7.2 1009 100 95 0.34 559 551
SAT 06Z 13-JAN -3.1 -1.4 1008 96 100 0.49 552 546
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -9.2 -14.8 1019 83 97 0.54 545 530
SAT 18Z 13-JAN -8.5 -16.2 1027 57 13 0.06 547 526
SUN 00Z 14-JAN -13.3 -19.1 1033 75 6 0.00 547 522

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:19 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM) *
Rob.. PBZ?


PBZ? Invalid station code. You mean PIT?

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 01:21 PM

its nice to see the ECM bring back healthy QPF, albeit SE....I like where we've headed on the 12z suite minus the 12K NAM that was weird

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:21 PM

Seems to be missing NAM/EURO guidance, but overall there seems to be a pretty tight consensus

Edit: forgot image!


 

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:23 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:18 PM) *
Here ya go!

CODE

CMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MGW LAT= 39.63 LON= -79.92 ELE= 1247

12Z JAN11
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
(MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN 7.5 9.3 1023 88 54 0.00 577 558
THU 18Z 11-JAN 14.4 12.1 1019 70 92 0.00 576 560
FRI 00Z 12-JAN 11.6 12.0 1016 98 92 0.08 575 562
FRI 06Z 12-JAN 10.4 11.4 1011 99 97 0.22 572 562
FRI 12Z 12-JAN 8.6 10.6 1008 100 100 0.41 568 562
FRI 18Z 12-JAN 16.8 11.1 1004 84 93 0.38 564 560
SAT 00Z 13-JAN 0.0 7.2 1009 100 95 0.34 559 551
SAT 06Z 13-JAN -3.1 -1.4 1008 96 100 0.49 552 546
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -9.2 -14.8 1019 83 97 0.54 545 530
SAT 18Z 13-JAN -8.5 -16.2 1027 57 13 0.06 547 526
SUN 00Z 14-JAN -13.3 -19.1 1033 75 6 0.00 547 522

Thanks again! Wow, over an inch of liquid with surface temperatures below freezing! I can work with that irrespective of potential p-type problems.

Posted by: ingyball Jan 11 2018, 01:24 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 01:23 PM) *
Thanks again! Wow, over an inch of liquid with surface temperatures below freezing! I can work with that irrespective of potential p-type problems.


You still having that "low" party? Lol

Posted by: ClevelandWx Jan 11 2018, 01:25 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM) *
Text IMBY...Meh smile.gif

CODE
ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR:  LAT =  39.70  LON =  -84.23

                                            12Z JAN11
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN  11.4     9.2    1017      92      49    0.00     573     558    
THU 18Z 11-JAN  11.3     9.2    1014      91      92    0.12     570     559    
FRI 00Z 12-JAN  12.5     9.4    1012      94      47    0.06     568     558    
FRI 06Z 12-JAN  11.0     9.0    1008      96      98    0.04     564     557    
FRI 12Z 12-JAN   1.8     6.7    1009      97      77    0.31     560     553    
FRI 18Z 12-JAN  -0.6    -0.2    1013      89      94    0.09     556     546    
SAT 00Z 13-JAN  -4.1    -4.4    1017      76      96    0.14     552     539    
SAT 06Z 13-JAN  -7.4    -8.0    1022      53      42    0.05     548     531    
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -10.4   -12.3    1029      57       5    0.00     546     524


Of course, it has already busted low IMBY with this morning's rain.

QPF is always a *cra p* shoot


Would love to see CLE if you have a chance. Thanks!

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:25 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 01:23 PM) *
Thanks again! Wow, over an inch of liquid with surface temperatures below freezing! I can work with that irrespective of potential p-type problems.



You are welcome. If it comes to fruition, enjoy!

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:26 PM

QUOTE(ClevelandWx @ Jan 11 2018, 01:25 PM) *
Would love to see CLE if you have a chance. Thanks!


You're welcome!

CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: CLE LAT= 41.42 LON= -81.87 ELE= 804

12Z JAN11
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN 9.8 8.3 1017 84 56 0.00 572 558
THU 18Z 11-JAN 12.8 9.9 1014 73 95 0.00 570 558
FRI 00Z 12-JAN 11.5 9.1 1011 92 99 0.22 569 559
FRI 06Z 12-JAN 11.0 8.8 1008 95 62 0.04 564 558
FRI 12Z 12-JAN 5.6 6.4 1007 98 97 0.06 561 555
FRI 18Z 12-JAN -1.1 -1.8 1014 90 98 0.26 556 546
SAT 00Z 13-JAN -4.0 -7.4 1019 78 98 0.12 553 538
SAT 06Z 13-JAN -6.5 -11.8 1020 70 52 0.06 548 532
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -8.1 -17.1 1026 65 7 0.02 543 524
SAT 18Z 13-JAN -7.5 -19.4 1030 57 4 0.00 543 520
SUN 00Z 14-JAN -8.6 -20.7 1034 51 6 0.01 541 516
SUN 06Z 14-JAN -10.9 -20.6 1036 55 9 0.00 539 511

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 01:28 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 01:19 PM) *
PBZ? Invalid station code. You mean PIT?


Yes sorry. PBZ is the NWS identifier. (which doesn't even make sense)

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 01:29 PM

QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 11 2018, 01:24 PM) *
You still having that "low" party? Lol

A low party no longer appears necessary smile.gif

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:30 PM

Temperatures.

 

Posted by: bradjl2009 Jan 11 2018, 01:30 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 01:14 PM) *
Euro snow.


Well that's very pretty for me, puts Pittsburgh right in the middle of the 6+ zone. Would love to see that verify, but we'll see what other models show this afternoon

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 01:31 PM

QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:30 PM) *
Well that's very pretty for me, puts Pittsburgh right in the middle of the 6+ zone. Would love to see that verify, but we'll see what other models show this afternoon


I would be dancing all day.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 01:32 PM

Pittsburgh:

CODE

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: PIT LAT= 40.50 LON= -80.22 ELE= 1224

12Z JAN11
2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
© © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
THU 12Z 11-JAN 7.8 8.9 1022 80 74 0.00 576 557
THU 18Z 11-JAN 15.1 10.7 1018 66 82 0.00 574 559
FRI 00Z 12-JAN 11.5 10.7 1015 97 100 0.18 573 561
FRI 06Z 12-JAN 8.8 10.2 1012 100 100 0.63 570 560
FRI 12Z 12-JAN 11.1 10.6 1007 99 94 0.74 566 560
FRI 18Z 12-JAN 9.0 8.3 1006 99 99 0.29 562 556
SAT 00Z 13-JAN -1.6 1.7 1012 97 96 0.39 557 547
SAT 06Z 13-JAN -6.2 -4.7 1013 85 99 0.53 551 541
SAT 12Z 13-JAN -9.5 -10.9 1020 77 98 0.41 544 528
SAT 18Z 13-JAN -8.7 -15.5 1027 52 5 0.03 545 524
SUN 00Z 14-JAN -11.0 -19.8 1033 73 4 0.00 545 520
SUN 06Z 14-JAN -15.0 -20.7 1036 82 6 0.00 543 516
SUN 12Z 14-JAN -20.4 -18.5 1038 87 7 0.00 542 513
SUN 18Z 14-JAN -10.3 -17.7 1038 60 8 0.00 541 512

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 01:35 PM

12z ARW for fun, includes sleet. Chicago LES?

 

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 01:38 PM

QUOTE(grace @ Jan 11 2018, 11:56 AM) *
12z ARW is very interesting. System moves very slowly. Wish it were uploaded already at Tropical Tidbits so I could see temp profiles better. It's the best run I've seen today

See what you think:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrwarw&p=refcmp_uh001h&rh=2018011112&fh=13&r=us_ov&dpdt=



I-71 and NW is the best snows. There is some sleet mixed in (more the farther east you go) but a good chunk from I-71 and NW is snow.

Posted by: MotownWX Jan 11 2018, 01:39 PM

Outside of a pure natural disaster (hurricane, earthquake, etc.), a flash freeze might be the worst weather condition possible. Massive car pileups, spin-outs galore, power lines down, people slipping and breaking various bones. Nothing fun or exciting about a layer of ice everywhere.

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 01:39 PM

It'll be interesting to see what ILN does now with the Watches. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWA along/north of I-70 (with the obvious potential to upgrade) and then a WSW south of I-70 and east of US-62. Would they really make the whole CWA a WSW due to 1/2 of sleet? I don't want to waste the streak of 1055 days without a WSW on sleet laugh.gif


Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 01:42 PM

QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:39 PM) *
It'll be interesting to see what ILN does now with the Watches. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWA along/north of I-70 (with the obvious potential to upgrade) and then a WSW south of I-70 and east of US-62. Would they really make the whole CWA a WSW due to 1/2 of sleet? I don't want to waste the streak of 1055 days without a WSW on sleet laugh.gif

True that... not understanding the 1/2 inch sleet criteria.... I've always had decent traction when driving on sleet.

Posted by: ValpoSnow Jan 11 2018, 01:42 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 12:35 PM) *
12z ARW for fun, includes sleet. Chicago LES?


Liking the look of it!

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 01:43 PM

So minus the 12Z 32KM NAM, seeing a Westward track and strengthening from previous 24 hr runs. My guess this continues thro the 00Z suites tonight.

Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 01:45 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:43 PM) *
So minus the 12Z 32KM NAM, seeing a Westward track and strengthening from previous 24 hr runs. My guess this continues thro the 00Z suites tonight.

Well the EURO was not west at all....

Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 01:47 PM

We are just over 24 hours before wintery precipitation is forecast and no one has any idea what will happen... on that note a local channel is going with 3-6 through Central and Western Ohio with 2-4 for southeast Ohio.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 01:49 PM

WPC disco:

QUOTE
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
127 PM EST THU JAN 11 2018

VALID JAN 11/1200 UTC THRU JAN 15/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING PREFERENCES AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


...CENTRAL US TROUGH WITH POTENT +PV ANOMALY AT THE BASE OVER
TEXAS BEGINNING TO EJECT NORTHEAST...
...INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT EJECTING WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CYCLOGENESIS UP THE EAST COAST FRI-SAT...
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF / 12Z CMC
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE


---18Z UPDATE---
WILL MAINTAIN THE PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE. THE 12Z UKMET DEVELOPS
THE SURFACE LOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS AND TRACKS IT UP
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEST OF THAT MOUNTAIN RANGE AS WELL. THIS
SEEMS LIKE A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE OTHER MODELS ARE ALL
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
THE 12Z NAM ALSO CONTINUES TO BE
FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AFTER 13/12Z IN PARTICULAR.


THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE SLOWER END OF MODEL
SPREAD WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SPREAD IN ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (WITH QUITE A FEW AT
THAT INTENSITY AND/OR SLOWER THAN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN)...WOULD
PREFER TO MAINTAIN THE ECMWF IN THE PREFERENCE.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 01:50 PM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:47 PM) *
We are just over 24 hours before wintery precipitation is forecast and no one has any idea what will happen... on that note a local channel is going with 3-6 through Central and Western Ohio with 2-4 for southeast Ohio.


Must be going with an in-house RPM model...I think someone posted a tweet a few pages back about the RPM model being further west.

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 01:49 PM

QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:39 PM) *
It'll be interesting to see what ILN does now with the Watches. Wouldn't be surprised to see WWA along/north of I-70 (with the obvious potential to upgrade) and then a WSW south of I-70 and east of US-62. Would they really make the whole CWA a WSW due to 1/2 of sleet? I don't want to waste the streak of 1055 days without a WSW on sleet laugh.gif

Wouldn't surprise me if they held off until the morning update since there's still questions about strength and placement of heaviest snows although I-71 seems to be a general consensus(other than the Euro).

Posted by: OSUWx2 Jan 11 2018, 01:51 PM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 01:49 PM) *
WPC disco:

Nice to see the NAM discounted. Not nice to see the UKMET in there too.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 01:55 PM

Here's what the NAV showed...




 

Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 01:57 PM

QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 11 2018, 01:42 PM) *
Liking the look of it!


Happy to see you guys getting a little dusting up there. The locals are going nuts down here like its the end of time.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 01:58 PM

Thanks for that, Germany laugh.gif



 

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:01 PM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:45 PM) *
Well the EURO was not west at all....


Seems like it moved a bit West, apologize if incorrect

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 02:04 PM

Radar/METARs/500s

 

Posted by: NWOhioChaser Jan 11 2018, 02:22 PM

Holding out some hope for the system to strengthen last minute to keep Toledo from having a nuisance 1-3" snow. Either way, I'll still take it and run!

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:23 PM

FWIW Cantore is heading to Indy. It's coming West! Lol

Posted by: BrenK10 Jan 11 2018, 02:27 PM

https://twitter.com/IndianaWxOnline/status/951534788740984832

QUOTE
Sleet will definitely be a factor here tomorrow. Seeing reports of heavy sleet with a temperature of 14 degrees in Iowa. #INwx


Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 02:27 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:23 PM) *
FWIW Cantore is heading to Indy. It's coming West! Lol


Just hope that the same thing that happened last year when he showed up during Norfolk's "blizzard" doesn't happen. wink.gif

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:29 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 02:27 PM) *
Just hope that the same thing that happened last year when he showed up during Norfolk's "blizzard" doesn't happen. wink.gif

tongue.gif laugh.gif

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 02:30 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:01 PM) *
Seems like it moved a bit West, apologize if incorrect


Don't see a "clapper tracker" to confirm.

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 02:32 PM

Bump up for central Ohio in http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ for both overall QPF and snow..

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 02:32 PM

WPC


 

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 02:34 PM

QUOTE(BrenK10 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:27 PM) *
https://twitter.com/IndianaWxOnline/status/951534788740984832


#sleetstormofalifetime

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:35 PM

If we can get the clapper tracker to confirm, I do believe both global models both shifted W and this could continue over next 12 hours of modeling, including the mesoscales. Cranky did mention this as a possibility as well yesterday, however he didn't stay how far West.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 02:36 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 02:32 PM) *
WPC



Love how that 40% Iso(percenter smile.gif ) goes around my back yard in that graphic..LOL

Posted by: CentralIllinois Jan 11 2018, 02:37 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 01:34 PM) *
#sleetstormofalifetime

laugh.gif

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 02:40 PM

SREF for me just went from 2.79 to 4.40

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 02:41 PM

Sleet should be a curse word.

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 02:41 PM

QUOTE(BuckeyeDiva @ Jan 11 2018, 02:41 PM) *
Sleet should be a curse word.

Its a killer... ask that to the STL and some IL/IN crowd during GHD laugh.gif

Posted by: Becki67 Jan 11 2018, 02:42 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 03:36 PM) *
Love how that 40% Iso(percenter smile.gif ) goes around my back yard in that graphic..LOL


Right?? dry.gif

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 02:44 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 02:41 PM) *
Its a killer... ask that to the STL and some IL/IN crowd during GHD laugh.gif



Many more would prefer that than ZR (At least non crazy people like us here on the board). Sleet can't take out power...

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 02:46 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 02:44 PM) *
Many more would prefer that than ZR (At least non crazy people like us here on the board). Sleet can't take out power...


Except it takes away snow!

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:47 PM

18Z NAM running

Posted by: cincysnow Jan 11 2018, 02:49 PM

First Winter Storm Warnings up for Western KY, Southern IL, and far Eastern MO:

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ112-114-
121000-
/O.UPG.KPAH.WS.A.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0300Z/
/O.NEW.KPAH.WS.W.0001.180112T0300Z-180113T0300Z/
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Mississippi-New Madrid-
Including the cities of Mount Vernon, Fairfield, Albion,
Mount Carmel, Pinckneyville, West Frankfort, McLeansboro, Carmi,
Carbondale, Murphysboro, Herrin, Harrisburg, Shawneetown,
Jonesboro, Vienna, Golconda, Elizabethtown, Cairo, Mound City,
Metropolis, Fort Branch, Petersburg, Poseyville, Evansville,
Boonville, Rockport, Hickman, Clinton, Bardwell, Wickliffe,
Paducah, Mayfield, Smithland, Benton, Murray, Marion, Eddyville,
Cadiz, Princeton, Morganfield, Dixon, Madisonville, Hopkinsville,
Henderson, Owensboro, Calhoun, Greenville, Elkton, Charleston,
and New Madrid
134 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM
CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Isolated to
scattered power outages and tree damage may occur due to the ice
accumulation. Travel will be dangerous, including during the
morning commute on Friday. Total snow accumulations 1 to 3
inches may occur on top of up to one quarter inch of ice
accumulations.

* WHERE...Portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana,
western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri.

* WHEN...9 PM This Evening to 9 PM Friday Evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
visibility at times. Strong and gusty winds may also increase
the hazard to power lines and tree branches weighted by the snow
and ice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet,
and ice are expected. This will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. The latest road conditions for the state you are
calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.


Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning


Posted by: beaver56 Jan 11 2018, 02:49 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 02:34 PM) *
#sleetstormofalifetime


laugh.gif

Easy, I like Brandon Redmond. Pretty conservative usually.

Posted by: mulaman984 Jan 11 2018, 02:49 PM

QUOTE(cincysnow @ Jan 11 2018, 02:49 PM) *
First Winter Storm Warnings up for Western KY, Southern IL, and far Eastern MO:
Source: https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=pah&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning


Congrats grace for the end of a streak

Posted by: beaver56 Jan 11 2018, 02:51 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 02:27 PM) *
Just hope that the same thing that happened last year when he showed up during Norfolk's "blizzard" doesn't happen. wink.gif


I hope some thundersnow makes him pee his pants on camera again. That was classic.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 02:52 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 02:47 PM) *
18Z NAM running


Even through 9hr. Slighty stronger HP and cold moving in quicker

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 02:54 PM

18z NAM is definitely better than 06z and 12z through hr 18.

Posted by: ohiobuckeye45 Jan 11 2018, 02:55 PM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 01:49 PM) *
WPC disco:

lots of interesting tid bits in there, ironic that the NAM went from the slowest, to the fastest model within 24-30 hours...also picking up that the UK looked glorious laugh.gif

I could live with a GFS CMC UK blend

Also the note on the ECM being slower makes sense given its higher totals, I would've thought though if it were slower like that it would end up closer to the UK

Good times laugh.gif

Posted by: rdl89 Jan 11 2018, 02:59 PM

QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Jan 11 2018, 02:23 PM) *
FWIW Cantore is heading to Indy. It's coming West! Lol



Well that means I can put my shovel back in the closet. wink.gif

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 03:00 PM

Just a trend shot at hr 18

Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 03:05 PM

Louisville upgraded to Winter Storm Warning just now.

Posted by: Seil79 Jan 11 2018, 03:06 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 02:00 PM) *
Just a trend shot at hr 18

18z ever so slightly shows a negative tilt to the trough, from being more neutral earlier. Could be a tick west and slower.

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 03:06 PM

IWX and IND go WWA. 18z NAM better looking for sure.

Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 03:08 PM

Better precip trends post temp drop.

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 03:12 PM

18z NAM slp is a little faster than 06z but on par with 12z also lol @ dry slotting I-71 in OH

Posted by: NWOhioChaser Jan 11 2018, 03:14 PM

CLE still out to lunch.

 

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 03:14 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 03:12 PM) *
18z NAM slp is a little faster than 06z but on par with 12z also lol @ dry slotting I-71 in OH


Posted by: adurb44 Jan 11 2018, 03:17 PM

Not bad. Not entirely confident on what is sleet and what is snow, but improvement over 12Z.

Click to animate.

 

Posted by: jdrenken Jan 11 2018, 03:18 PM

QUOTE(beaver56 @ Jan 11 2018, 01:49 PM) *
laugh.gif

Easy, I like Brandon Redmond. Pretty conservative usually.


..not directed at him


Posted by: N.Indianaweather Jan 11 2018, 03:19 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 02:54 PM) *
18z NAM is definitely better than 06z and 12z through hr 18.

I would say #thekitchensinkofalifetime. What a mess

Posted by: Kuotations Jan 11 2018, 03:19 PM

Hmm...



Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 03:19 PM

QUOTE(adurb44 @ Jan 11 2018, 03:17 PM) *
Not bad. Not entirely confident on what is sleet and what is snow, but improvement over 12Z.

Click to animate.


Looks like LES pretty much dry up on this one.

Posted by: BuckeyeDiva Jan 11 2018, 03:21 PM

I do not envy the NWS offices at ALL. If I were ILN, I'd wait until at least the 0Z NAM. And even then, ee.

Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 03:21 PM

QUOTE(Kuotations @ Jan 11 2018, 03:19 PM) *
Hmm...




Reading SDF commentary on our Winter Storm Warning seems to indicate they believe the heaviest action will be along and west of I-65.

Posted by: BrenK10 Jan 11 2018, 03:23 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 02:34 PM) *
#sleetstormofalifetime

that dreaded s word... sleet. tongue.gif

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 03:26 PM



NAM just painted my ski trip with .25" ice and 1+ foot of snow

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 03:26 PM

ILN goes WWA for entire area

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
323 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

INZ074-075-080-KYZ089>097-OHZ045-046-052>056-061>063-070>072-
077>080-120430-
/O.UPG.KILN.WS.A.0001.180112T1200Z-180113T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KILN.WW.Y.0003.180112T1500Z-180113T1500Z/
Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-
Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Union OH-Delaware-Champaign-Clark-
Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Butler-
Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Lawrenceburg, Aurora, Rising Sun, Vevay,
Carrollton, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington, Oakbrook, Covington,
Erlanger, Independence, Newport, Alexandria, Owenton,
Williamstown, Crittenden, Dry Ridge, Falmouth, Butler, Augusta,
Brooksville, Marysville, Delaware, Urbana, Springfield, London,
West Jefferson, Plain City, Columbus, Newark, Dayton, Kettering,
Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House, Hamilton,
Middletown, Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Springboro,
Wilmington, Blanchester, Cincinnati, Milford, Georgetown,
Mount Orab, Hillsboro, and Greenfield
323 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Plan on difficult travel
conditions. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice
accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky and
Central, Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 03:27 PM

3KM is still west...




Posted by: beaver56 Jan 11 2018, 03:27 PM

QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 11 2018, 03:18 PM) *
..not directed at him



I caught it for sure. Kirk is the owner of the storm of a lifetime. I just thought it was funny.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM

And the Winter Storm Warning drought continues laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 03:26 PM) *
ILN goes WWA for entire area


My condolences.

Posted by: Ahoff Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM

Pittsburgh area is upgraded to a winter storm warning. Been almost a year for the city, of course not as long as some places. Good to see some of those streaks ending. Will be a very wild ride for many people. Just stay safe everyone.

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 03:30 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 02:41 PM) *
Its a killer... ask that to the STL and some IL/IN crowd during GHD laugh.gif

Fortunately, I was in Columbia for GHD and that's still the best storm I've ever witnessed.

Posted by: ecanem Jan 11 2018, 03:31 PM

Well, Pittsburgh went WSW

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 03:30 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 03:26 PM) *
ILN goes WWA for entire area

Probably not a bad idea. They can always upgrade if strengthening trends continue.

Posted by: Big Ant Jan 11 2018, 03:30 PM

QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM) *
Pittsburgh area is upgraded to a winter storm warning. Been almost a year for the city, of course not as long as some places. Good to see some of those streaks ending. Will be a very wild ride for many people. Just stay safe everyone.


Congrats.

Posted by: ZumaRat Jan 11 2018, 03:31 PM

QUOTE(BuckeyeDiva @ Jan 11 2018, 03:21 PM) *
I do not envy the NWS offices at ALL. If I were ILN, I'd wait until at least the 0Z NAM. And even then, ee.


No kidding, I second that. And look at this. They are showing (with this product, anyways) almost equal chances of 2-4" as they are all the way up to 8-12". Then of course you have the larger percent at zero inches. Talk about a spread!

I picked Mercer Co just because that's where I am but it's nearly the same for most of their counties. That's nuts being one day out.

 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 03:34 PM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM) *
And the Winter Storm Warning drought continues laugh.gif rolleyes.gif



Indeed. Of course to me, having a drought of actual numbers that would give me warning conditions is what I miss. An actual winter storm warning itself doen't mean much to me. They could have issued that warning ending our streak. If we didn't get the mounts that were warranted then 'Meh'

Of course, I really wish the everyday population would treat a warning and an advisory the same. They should be as careful as possible no matter the advisory level.

Posted by: bradjl2009 Jan 11 2018, 03:36 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 03:27 PM) *
3KM is still west...


It's west, but it's still east of where it was at 12Z so closer to the 12KM than before. The regular 18Z has much more of heavier snow band in our neck of the woods than the 12z

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 03:37 PM

QUOTE(ecanem @ Jan 11 2018, 03:31 PM) *
Well, Pittsburgh went WSW

I'm a bit surprised at the advisory in MGW, I guess they don't have sleet criteria for WSW?

Oh well, headlines don't make or break a storm. Either way, I'm happy with where I'm at.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 03:39 PM

This snow hole over my back yard is quite amusing smile.gif




 

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 03:40 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 03:37 PM) *
I'm a bit surprised at the advisory in MGW, I guess they don't have sleet criteria for WSW?

Oh well, headlines don't make or break a storm. Either way, I'm happy with where I'm at.

Exactly! Headlines drought doesn't mean Headline criteria disruption hadn't occurred.

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 03:42 PM

QUOTE(Ahoff @ Jan 11 2018, 03:28 PM) *
Pittsburgh area is upgraded to a winter storm warning. Been almost a year for the city, of course not as long as some places. Good to see some of those streaks ending. Will be a very wild ride for many people. Just stay safe everyone.

I'm looking forwards to their afternoon AFD. However, based on my point forecast, I think they have spent more time tailoring forecasts for the more heavily populated areas (PIT) and just broad-brushed the southern areas (MGW) where more uncertainty exists.

Posted by: BrenK10 Jan 11 2018, 03:44 PM

heading out. Hope to return tonight to something good! enjoy the evening yall

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 03:44 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 03:39 PM) *
This snow hole over my back yard is quite amusing smile.gif


You have an admirable attitude towards snow holes.

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 03:40 PM) *
Exactly! Headlines drought doesn't mean Headline criteria disruption hadn't occurred.


No kidding, as jd pointed out yesterday, the slightest glaze of ice can result in dozens of accidents and travel woes.

Posted by: ValpoSnow Jan 11 2018, 03:44 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 02:34 PM) *
Indeed. Of course to me, having a drought of actual numbers that would give me warning conditions is what I miss. An actual winter storm warning itself doen't mean much to me. They could have issued that warning ending our streak. If we didn't get the mounts that were warranted then 'Meh'

Of course, I really wish the everyday population would treat a warning and an advisory the same. They should be as careful as possible no matter the advisory level.


Yup. I was under a warning last year and it sure wasn't valid.

Posted by: Juniorrr Jan 11 2018, 03:45 PM

1/2 of sleet in 24 hrs is a weird criteria for a warning.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 03:46 PM

QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 11 2018, 03:44 PM) *
You have an admirable attitude towards snow holes.
No kidding, as jd pointed out yesterday, the slightest glaze of ice can result in dozens of accidents and travel woes.



I try when it is a model representation. I am a bit less gallant went it comes to a snow hole obs in my area smile.gif

Course, one never knows when a band may give a bonus..

Posted by: Ahoff Jan 11 2018, 03:49 PM

I really didn't want to get excited with this one. I threw the towel, tentatively picked it back up, and now have hopes up. Please, don't crush them!

Posted by: osubucks30 Jan 11 2018, 03:53 PM

QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 11 2018, 03:45 PM) *
1/2 of sleet in 24 hrs is a weird criteria for a warning.

Agree... always thought sleet wasn't bad to drive on. Decent tires and should have no problem.

Posted by: ncinthenext3 Jan 11 2018, 03:54 PM

QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2018, 03:39 PM) *
This snow hole over my back yard is quite amusing smile.gif


I think the way this entire event has panned out is 'amusing' too.

Posted by: NWOhioChaser Jan 11 2018, 03:54 PM

Now under a WWA for 1-3"..

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 03:58 PM

QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Jan 11 2018, 03:53 PM) *
Agree... always thought sleet wasn't bad to drive on. Decent tires and should have no problem.



It is fairly easy to travel on at times but in heavy traffic areas, sleet will eventually be compacted down into a an icy rink like surface, especially heavy sleet that keeps adding up. Shoveling a half inch of sleet can't be that fun either with the added weight.

Posted by: JymGanahlRocks Jan 11 2018, 03:59 PM

Beyond frustration...ugh. Not one 6" storm in the past 5+ years...Starting to forget what it's like.



 

Posted by: snowlover2 Jan 11 2018, 04:02 PM

IND AFD - they do mention possible upgrade for the WWA areas if colder air moves in quicker or precip is heavier.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
320 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Warm and moist southerly flow will remain in place tonight ahead
of a strong cold front over the Illinois and Missouri. This will
result in warm and wet weather tonight. The cold front will sweep
across Indiana early on Friday Morning. This will result in a
precipitation type change over from rain to freezing rain and then
eventually to snow. The combination of ice and snow may make for
difficult driving conditions on Friday.

The front will exit the area on Friday night and snow will taper
off. A cold...arctic high pressure system will then build across
the region for the weekend and temperatures will plummet to below
normals for much of next week.

Yet another chance of snow will be possible on Sunday Night and
Monday as a quick moving clipper system sweeps through the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a strong cold front
stretching from Central Wisconsin across Western Illinois to
Central Missouri and Western Arkansas. Warm and moist southerly
flow was in place across Central Indiana ahead of the front. Temps
and dew point have risen in to the 50s across much of the
area...revealing a warm and moist air mass. Aloft water vapor
shows a deep and sharp trough in place over the Central Plains
sliding eastward. National Radar mosaics show scattered light
rain showers along and ahead of the front.

Forecast soundings tonight show a gradual development of deep
moisture withing the column...with excellent lift arriving after
06Z ahead of the upper trough. Model suggest after 09Z-12Z that
the colder air begins to arrive as forecast soundings show temps
in the lowest levels falling below freezing and revealing a
classic freezing rain sounding. Given expected QPF...light icing
of 0.1-0.2 will be possible...particularly across points across
the southern forecast area.

Will use a blend on overnight lows...with temps falling through
the overnight and the lows occurring at 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...

Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

Models suggest the cold front will be bisecting our forecast area
near 12Z as the Friday forecast period begins. As stated in the
previous period discussion...freezing rain should ongoing across
much of the forecast area near 12Z as the cold air continues to
filter in. By 15Z...forecast soundings show temperatures within
the column falling entirely below freezing resulting in a change
over to snow. However best lift will be quickly exiting the area
at that time. As moisture is lost by late afternoon forecast
soundings show dry air beginning to infiltrate the column as the
upper trough swings toward the Carolinas. Thus this should result
in snow tapering off.

Thus summing up this system...we start with rain...changing to
freezing rain on early Friday morning...before changing to snow
and snow tapers off and ends in the afternoon. This still could
result in a thin layer of ice put down across surfaces early
Friday morning...followed by some light snow amounts of 2-3
inches. Thus due to the combined possible impacts of different
precipitation types, will go ahead with a Winter Storm Warning
across the southern parts of Central Indiana with a Advisory in
place to points north. Better confidence in slightly higher precip
amounts across southern Indiana point toward better chances for
weather impacting events/travel.

It should be noted that should the freezing rain come in quicker
or heavier than expected...an upgrade to warning in the advisory
area is not out of the question...again...stay tuned
.

Posted by: RobB Jan 11 2018, 04:04 PM

QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 11 2018, 03:59 PM) *
Beyond frustration...ugh. Not one 6" storm in the past 5+ years...Starting to forget what it's like.



Now that is a more impressive streak than a Winter Storm Warning drought.

Posted by: ncinthenext3 Jan 11 2018, 04:04 PM

QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jan 11 2018, 03:54 PM) *
Now under a WWA for 1-3"..


DTX....crickets as far as any advisory as of the 3:15pm update

Posted by: StL weatherjunkie Jan 11 2018, 04:06 PM

Wow KPIT really went out of their way to discuss the details in their afternoon update. rolleyes.gif

Probably just spent too much time trying to untangle the various model solutions. Definitely Pittsburgh focused though.

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
344 PM EST Thu Jan 11 2018

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

As the aforementioned trough slides eastward and ejects a vort
center across the Upr OH on Friday night and Saturday, rain will
tranistion to a wintry mix, and eventually snow. Winter storm
warnings and advisories have been issued for the combinations of
ice, and then snow accumulation. Questions remain on placement
and magnitude of ice and snow amounts given the dispute between
freezing rain supporting warm advection aloft, and the
degradation of the dendrite-formation layer resulting from the
warmth.
At any rate, confidence is sufficient for the current
headline package with surface cold air encroachment timed for
late Friday afternoon over the northern tier of PBZ zones, with
all precip changing to snow in the predawn of Saturday.

By Saturday mrng, system departure will diminish the snow chances,
with cold advection in its wake dropping temperature rapidly
below the averages.

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