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> Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
snowsux
post Mar 25 2017, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 25 2017, 05:45 PM) *
Just to mention that KCXY (reporting for the Harrisburg region) is showing a very tepid 77F.

Despite clouds, it is too warm to go out in more than a T shirt. ohmy.gif

[attachment=324551:Capture.PNG]


Feels great, doesn't it?
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Undertakerson
post Yesterday, 04:50 AM
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QUOTE(snowsux @ Mar 25 2017, 11:09 PM) *
Feels great, doesn't it?

Indeed, it did SS. One of the finest days in quite a while actually. smile.gif

At around Noon, I had been inside completing the tax returns and had no idea how warm it had gotten. Earlier in the day, you could tell it was "nice" out, but at Farmer's Market a light jacket was just the ticket.

So when I finally stepped outdoors at 1, I was so pleased that I didn't come back in, other than to eat, until 8.
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NorEaster07
post Yesterday, 05:53 AM
Post #463




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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 25 2017, 05:45 PM) *
Just to mention that KCXY (reporting for the Harrisburg region) is showing a very tepid 77F.

Despite clouds, it is too warm to go out in more than a T shirt. ohmy.gif


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 26 2017, 05:50 AM) *
One of the finest days in quite a while actually. smile.gif

So when I finally stepped outdoors at 1, I was so pleased that I didn't come back in, other than to eat, until 8.


Were the birds singing all day and did you smell the ground?

Did you see Southern NJ hit 80s? ohmy.gif
I saw Harrisburg then realized where the front was because Binghamton was only in the mid 30s. blink.gif


QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Mar 25 2017, 09:38 PM) *
That "pneumonia" front was one of the most powerful fronts I've witnessed. I was purposefully standing outside when it passed, and you could literally feel it cool off from t-shirt weather to sweatshirt weather in just a couple minutes. Here is the weather station very near to my house that shows how impressive the drop was:

We dropped from 70F at 7:13pm to 47F by 7:48pm, but realistically, it occurred in only about 5 minutes. All after a high of 82F. Crazy stuff!


Wow, good stuff. Impressive.



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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Undertakerson
post Yesterday, 07:19 AM
Post #464




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Mar 26 2017, 06:53 AM) *
Were the birds singing all day and did you smell the ground?

Did you see Southern NJ hit 80s? ohmy.gif
I saw Harrisburg then realized where the front was because Binghamton was only in the mid 30s. blink.gif
Wow, good stuff. Impressive.

There was quite a bit of avian activity. So many small bugs emerging in vast hatches. Turkeys all over the woodlot (and again this morning, they gobbled for 45 minutes on the ridge across our "holler")

On the road, there were packs and packs of motorcyclists and the local boat launch was wall to wall.

Although imaginary, it was as if you could hear the blooms and buds bursting forth.

As we came back indoors (after an evening on the deck with a couple glasses of vino) we could feel the beginning of the wind shift that had the cooler tones. Even still, this mornings' mid 40's are not all that tough to take.

Back to less IMBY observations -

WeatherWorld 12 Day Trend segment (past Friday) emphasized the "topsy turvey" outlook moving forward. Something I mentioned on my Fb Wx page - nothing really "locks in" one way or the other, so enjoy warm days when they come - they probably do not dominate.
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Undertakerson
post Yesterday, 08:11 AM
Post #465




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The E PAC loop suggests complete mayhem on the inbound route

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/?select...;select6=Script
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ClicheVortex2014
post Yesterday, 10:16 AM
Post #466




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Wow. Well, I guess the severe weather season is upon us.



QUOTE
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Wed - TX/OK/LA/AR...
The upper system that is expected to result in severe weather over
west TX on Tuesday will track eastward and affect the Arklatex and
adjacent areas on Wednesday. 00z model guidance is in good
agreement on the timing of a shortwave trough rotating across TX and
into the mid MS Valley during this period. Ample low level
moisture/instability and strong wind fields indicate a risk of an
active severe weather day capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes. The ECMWF solution suggests that some risk of
strong storms extends northward into MO/IL, but will defer to later
outlook updates to refine this threat.

...Day5/Thu - LA/MS/AL...
Models begin to show significant divergence of solutions on
Thursday. The GFS suggests a strong shortwave trough and associated
low-level jet will move from LA to GA during the period. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF/UKMET solutions indicate the system tracks more
northeastward into the OH Valley. An overlap of these two scenarios
provides sufficient confidence to add a 15% risk area for parts of
LA/MS/AL. This area is also consistent with 12z ECMWF ensemble
output.

...Day7/Sat and Day8/Sun - OK/TX/LA...
Another strong upper trough is forecast to move into the southwest
states by Saturday, leading to another emerging risk of severe
storms. Models are inconsistent in the timing and location of this
trough, so will not attempt to forecast a 15% severe area at this
time. However, it is likely that parts of the TX/OK/LA region will
be included in later outlook updates.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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RobB
post Yesterday, 09:46 PM
Post #467




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3/26 12Z NAEFS and GEFS:



Attached File(s)
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Attached File  gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 110.15K ) Number of downloads: 0
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ClicheVortex2014
post Today, 12:27 AM
Post #468




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12z and 00z GFS has had this event, so uh... lock it in?







Spring has sprung!

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Today, 12:28 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 3 (Last: 3/20/17)
Slight risks: 0 (Last: 9/10/16)
Enhanced risks: 3 (Last: 3/1/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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