Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> May 13-15 MidAtl/NE Mothers Day Nor'easter
grandpaboy
post May 9 2017, 10:34 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,507
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





What no love for the Mom's... tongue.gif


Pattern is locked and loaded, most if not all models on board for moderate Nor'easter this weekend..

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image



Attached Image



My advise, i would plan an...indoor meal for Mom, if your not going out... wink.gif


--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 10 2017, 03:13 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,640
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 9 2017, 11:34 PM) *
What no love for the Mom's... tongue.gif
Pattern is locked and loaded, most if not all models on board for moderate Nor'easter this weekend..

Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image

Attached Image

My advise, i would plan an...indoor meal for Mom, if your not going out... wink.gif

Had to cancel the annual Mother's Day one the Deck and opt for an indoor venue - given the outlook.

00z GFS seems to move the storm along in time to make the afternoon not all that bad looking on Sunday (most of the "damage" in the MidAtl looks like Saturday)
Attached Image

Note that the next frame (Hr120) GFS has the storm move directly east - allowing warmth to nudge in on Sunday afternoon.

The Euro has it continue into NE - would be a much cooler outlook (and rainier for NE, of course)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 10 2017, 03:32 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,640
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





WPC Extended Disco

QUOTE
...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
FRI-SUN BACK TO I-81/I-88 IN PA/NY. SPECIFICS WILL CHANGE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS BUT TREND HAS BEEN WETTER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. 12Z GEFS MEAN QPF M-CLIMATE VALUES SHOW 'MAX'
VALUES WHICH ARE A STRONG INDICATOR OF AN ANOMALOUS RAIN EVENT FOR
MID-MAY.
ASSUMING THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LINGER LONGER THAN FORECAST,
CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE BY NEXT TUESDAY WITH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS
NEXT WEDNESDAY.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post May 10 2017, 06:44 AM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,999
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





10/0z storm tracks, UKie did the loop today, euro toyed with that yesterday.


Operational tracks
Attached Image



ECMWF ensembles
Attached Image


This post has been edited by MaineJay: May 10 2017, 06:55 AM


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 11 2017, 05:02 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,065
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





NWS NY discussion on this current pattern and the weekend coastal storm.

QUOTE
National Weather Service New York NY
424 AM EDT Thu May 11 2017

Upper level cutoff low continues to spin east of New England.
Should see diurnal clouds redevelop from late morning into the
afternoon especially across southern CT via weakly cyclonic H8
flow, along with positive theta-E advection at that level. A
sprinkle may even be possible across far eastern sections late
morning or early afternoon as a weak mid level shortwave passes
by. Temps should be slightly warmer than those of yesterday,
with mid 60s for NYC and most of NE NJ, and lower 60s elsewhere.



CLouds that develop this afternoon appear likely to hang on
tonight as combo of weakly cyclonic H8 flow and positive H8
theta-E advection at that level continue, with low temps in the
40s. Expect more maritime influence on Fri as easterly flow
gradually increases, with highs only in the mid and upper 50s.


Blocky pattern continues through the period, with a coastal
storm impacting the region over the weekend.

Models continue in good agreement on a SE-drifting Central
Canadian closed low interacting with approaching energy from an
opening southwest low this weekend. Models are still struggling
a bit with the timing and location of phasing between the two as
this complex pivots through the Ohio Valley into NE Sat into
Sun. This has been evident in the ensemble spread and
operational model run to run and model to model inconsistency
over the last couple of days, although there appears to be some
narrowing in this spread spread over the last 24 hrs. These
differences manifest in some subtle timing/track/intensity
spread of the developing coastal low along the SE/Mid Atlantic
coastal plain Fri Night/Sat as it intensifies and slowly tracks
NE to near or just SE of Long Island Sat night into Sunday.

The above details will ultimately determine exact location of
heavy rain and expanse of wind field over the region and timing
of associated peak rain/wind impacts. In general though,
confidence is high in a soaking windswept rain during the Sat-
Sun morning period, due to deep layered lift from difluent flow
aloft, strong low/mid-level frontogenetic forcing, and a
developing 45-55 kt SE LLJ pumping in a Gulf/Atlantic moisture
feed with +2 STD PW.

In terms of rainfall, models are converging on potential for a
1.5-3 inch rainfall, with longer window mesoscale models
indicating potential for locally higher amounts. Initially east-
facing higher terrain appears to be favored for heavier rain
based on E-SE inflow, then likely transitioning to location of
a coastal front. See the HYDROLOGY section for related flood
impacts.

In terms of winds, E-NE winds should increase through the day
Saturday, likely peaking along the coast late Sat/Sat Eve with
gust of 30-40 mph. Similar NW wind gusts appear possible late
Sat night into Sun on the back side of low. Where the winds
fall in this range and timing will again be dependent on the
afore mentioned low pressure evolution.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 11 2017, 05:08 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,065
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post May 11 2017, 05:20 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,999
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





GYX

QUOTE
Very energetic wave will dive into the base of 500 mb trough to
our west and allow it to phase with some southern stream
energy, and surface low over the mid-Atlantic states will begin
to intensify as it track N along the New England coast Saturday
night and Sunday. It`s not bombogenesis, but it still is a
potent system which should produce some heavy rain and perhaps a
short period of gusty winds on the coast Sunday. Rainfall total
will be an inch to an inch and a half, with some locally higher
amounts possible, but a lot of this will fall in a short period
late Saturday into Sunday morning. This could lead to some
localized flooding, but should not bring rivers to flood stage.

As the low closes off over the ME coast Sunday night, rain and
showers will linger into Monday with cool temps holding on.

This system does weaken and begin to fill by Monday night and
gets caught back into the flow and shifts eastward thru the
maritimes Monday night and Tuesday. The 00Z Euro is now very
bullish on developing ridging over the eastern CONUS and western
Atlantic mid to late week, which would mean warmer temps and
more fair weather than we have had so far this month.


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MD Blue Ridge
post May 11 2017, 07:57 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,927
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





Based on how every storm has been forecasted in the preceding weeks I'd expect this one to also be here ahead of schedule.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
gulfofslides
post May 11 2017, 08:38 AM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,079
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Hingham
Member No.: 12,082





QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ May 11 2017, 08:57 AM) *
Based on how every storm has been forecasted in the preceding weeks I'd expect this one to also be here ahead of schedule.

I agree if we are basing solely on previous weather events . My question is how will blocking effect the LP moving through the NE?

This post has been edited by gulfofslides: May 11 2017, 08:39 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bingobobbo
post May 11 2017, 03:06 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,612
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Endwell, NY
Member No.: 16,598





If this were only a December storm, there would be winter storm watches all over the place. Unfortunately, it is now too late in the season even for mountain snows.


--------------------
There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
so_whats_happeni...
post May 11 2017, 04:48 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,014
Joined: 23-March 08
From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Looking like Friday night into Saturday midday looks to be the heaviest with lingering showers into Saturday night for areas of MD and PA and into NJ.

This may move through a bit quicker then one may think until it gets into new England and closes off. Which could make for a better Sunday with maybe breaking skies as the day goes on.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 11 2017, 05:32 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,640
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ May 11 2017, 05:48 PM) *
Looking like Friday night into Saturday midday looks to be the heaviest with lingering showers into Saturday night for areas of MD and PA and into NJ.

This may move through a bit quicker then one may think until it gets into new England and closes off. Which could make for a better Sunday with maybe breaking skies as the day goes on.

Better, being a relative term I guess. Northwesterly flow will probably not allow for conditions to be "nice".
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post May 12 2017, 06:13 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,999
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Operational tracks (UKie, euro, CMC, NAM, GFS)
Attached Image


ECMWF ensembles
Attached Image


NCEP ensembles
Attached Image


SREFs
Attached Image



The spread in sref qpf exemplifies the importance of the track

Attached Image


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post May 12 2017, 09:06 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,187
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Where was this track in Jan/Feb!!!


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post May 12 2017, 09:09 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,187
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





Both GFS and NAM have this tucked into the Delmarva, decent amount of rain for NJ and points NE.





--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 12 2017, 09:42 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,065
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(LUCC @ May 12 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Where was this track in Jan/Feb!!!


You made me look at my storm track maps. Nice!

Looks like we did have a similar tracks

Dec 29, 2016 but was further north in Ohio Valley, exits NJ off coast curls back into Maine/Quebec

January 6, 2017 Gulf to Nova Scotia
January 24, 2017 Pacific to TN off NC and up coast

February 9, 2017 Pacific, TN, exits Virginia, up coast and east of Nova Scotia
February 16, 2017 Pacific, Gulf States, exits NC up coast and east of Nova Scotia

The 1/24/17 & 2/16/17 storms looks to be the closest to this one.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post May 12 2017, 10:08 AM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,187
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 12 2017, 10:42 AM) *
You made me look at my storm track maps. Nice!

Looks like we did have a similar tracks

Dec 29, 2016 but was further north in Ohio Valley, exits NJ off coast curls back into Maine/Quebec

January 6, 2017 Gulf to Nova Scotia
January 24, 2017 Pacific to TN off NC and up coast

February 9, 2017 Pacific, TN, exits Virginia, up coast and east of Nova Scotia
February 16, 2017 Pacific, Gulf States, exits NC up coast and east of Nova Scotia

The 1/24/17 & 2/16/17 storms looks to be the closest to this one.

biggrin.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
KENNYP2339
post May 12 2017, 11:22 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 783
Joined: 4-August 10
From: NWNJ
Member No.: 23,320





QUOTE(LUCC @ May 12 2017, 10:06 AM) *
Where was this track in Jan/Feb!!!

Don't give MJ flashbacks, he had that track all winter
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 12 2017, 02:39 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 21,065
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





http://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=OKX



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 12 2017, 04:23 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,640
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 12 2017, 03:39 PM) *

Sure looks like a typical Nor'easter precip pattern to me. A quick trip through the MidAtl and then looping as it exits near the coast of ME. cool.gif

Even with blocking downstream, it doesn't whack the MidAtl as hard as the coast. This go around that is due to the relatively disjointed nature of the two available energies.

The southern feed swings north along the coast, but the northern stream hangs back. The two don't meet until just about even with 40N, so when they do slow (due to merging/capturing) the combined system has a bit more to work with in the NE latitude.

Of course, that track will always hit the coast and leave the inland areas relatively "unscathed".
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd May 2018 - 09:55 PM