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> February 24-26, 2017 MidAtl/NE Storm OBS, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST and OBS
phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:10 AM
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Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Feb 16 2017, 04:51 PM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM
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0z GFS PARA:



0z CMC:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM
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The title literally says "rainstorm".

Wow.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 14 2017, 11:13 AM) *
The title literally says "rainstorm".

Wow.

I can change it if need be but.....


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 11:41 AM
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Figures I open the thread and the storm goes poof on the 12z GFS.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 01:21 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:41 AM) *
Figures I open the thread and the storm goes poof on the 12z GFS.


Maybe "Tranquil Period" should be added to the title.

laugh.gif

I'm just yanking your chain. Have a good day. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 02:08 PM
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--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 02:16 PM
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QUOTE(goblue96 @ Feb 14 2017, 02:08 PM) *

Not according to the 12z GFS. laugh.gif


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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LUCC
post Feb 14 2017, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:11 AM) *
0z GFS PARA:

0z CMC:

NJ gets flooded via CMC, 6" of rain, that God it's the CMC at 8 days out! rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by LUCC: Feb 14 2017, 02:37 PM


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 02:48 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 02:16 PM) *
Not according to the 12z GFS. laugh.gif


Attached Image


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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SteelerFan420
post Feb 14 2017, 03:07 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 11:10 AM) *
Opening a thread for this proverbially rain storm. Will assume rain storm for now, but last 2 runs of GFS not set in stone yet:
6z GFS:


0z GFS:

Looks vicious! Better get the boat tuned up, anybody in harm's way is gonna have areal flood


--------------------

Red sky at night, sailor’s delight.
Red
sky in morning, sailor’s heed warning!
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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2017, 03:10 PM
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QUOTE(SteelerFan420 @ Feb 14 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Looks vicious! Better get the boat tuned up, anybody in harm's way is gonna have areal flood

Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.


--------------------
Severe Weather 2017:

High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1, 6/19, 6/23
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1, 6/19
Flood Watch: 3/31-4/1, 4/6
Flash Flood Watch: 6/19

Pea Size Hail: 2/25
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2017, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 03:10 PM) *
Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.

18z GFS brings precip back - in the form of rain showers at least.
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yamvmax
post Feb 14 2017, 05:39 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 14 2017, 04:10 PM) *
Could use any form of precipitation, I don't want a repeat of last summer again.

Very true. Same here.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2017, 05:42 PM
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Last 6 GFS runs - try not to become nauseated while viewing (click to animate)

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 14 2017, 05:42 PM
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clindner00
post Feb 14 2017, 06:43 PM
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why do we have a thread opened for a rainstorm but not a snowstorm on March 2nd at hour 372 of the gfs?!?!? lmao! it's only 2 and a half weeks away and about 60 gfs runs away! 😃
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goblue96
post Feb 14 2017, 06:45 PM
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QUOTE(clindner00 @ Feb 14 2017, 06:43 PM) *
why do we have a thread opened for a rainstorm but not a snowstorm on March 2nd at hour 372 of the gfs?!?!? lmao! it's only 2 and a half weeks away and about 60 gfs runs away! 😃


LOCK IT IN!!!!!!


--------------------
First Day above 60: February 23 (2/20/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 65: February 23 (3/9/16, 4/2/15)

First Day above 70: February 24 (3/9/16, 4/13/15)

First Day above 75: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/2/15)

First Day above 80: April 10 (3/9/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 85: April 11 (5/25/16, 5/4/15)

First Day above 90: (5/28/16, 7/27/15)

First Day above 95: (2015 and 2016: Did not happen)

Days 90+: (2016: 9, 2015: 6)
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 07:51 PM
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EAR has some storminess .. a bit of phaseyness (north of MidAtl most likely)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 07:58 PM
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Member No.: 26,143





12z GEFS, decent storm signal. Lots of differences on placement of low's, high's and strength's (of course)

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2017, 08:08 PM
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RRWT .. currently 52 days is pretty hot .. so, 2/24 - 52 days = 1/3 .. showing 1/4 and 1/5 (what's a few days between friends)

Attached Image


Attached Image



http://www.organicforecasting.com/rrwt-for6.html

Attached Image

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Feb 14 2017, 08:09 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
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