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> March 17-18 Plains/MW/OV/GL Severe Weather, Long-range (6-10 days): forecasts and observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 15 2018, 02:59 PM
Post #21




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I don't understand what BMX means by "too veered" for a tornado threat... blink.gif

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
213 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...
Through tonight.

High clouds will spread into the area this afternoon and tonight
ahead of the next storm system. Lows tonight will be much warmer
than the previous two nights with readings in the upper 30s to
middle 40s.

58/rose

.LONG TERM...
Updated for severe weather potential Sunday night through Monday.

Model agreement has worsened regarding the potential for a QLCS
with damaging winds and tornadoes late Sunday night into Monday
morning along a warm front. This potential could be added to the
HWO in later updates if models come into better agreement.

A low confidence threat for severe storms has been added to the
HWO for Monday afternoon in association with a dryline/front and
the approach of an upper-level trough. This threat is conditional
on boundary layer destabilization in the wake of morning
convection. Steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to moderate
instability with CAPE values exceeded 2000 J/kg. Large hail up to
golf ball size or possibly larger, and damaging winds appear to be
the main threats. Surface to 850mb winds appear to be too veered
for a mentionable tornado threat at this time.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 15 2018, 03:41 PM
Post #22




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From: Morgantown, WV
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 15 2018, 03:59 PM) *
I don't understand what BMX means by "too veered" for a tornado threat... blink.gif

Agreed, seems like poor reasoning ...
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 15 2018, 05:02 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 15 2018, 09:32 AM) *
Not necessarily related to this system, but it seems like the dryline location associated with this system could be representative of the dryline location for the next couple weeks according to total QPF from the 00z GEFS. Given the location, more-or-less smack dab in the middle of tornado alley, it seems like severe thunderstorm season will be ramping up in line with climatology unlike last season. Have to wonder what the season looks like come May ph34r.gif

Looking at GFS and Euro, severe weather really is finally starting to ramp up. Bit of a suppressed storm track which is focusing the severe weather further south... I don't recall seeing this type of pattern very often except for a bit early last year. Excited to see what happens when the jet stream lifts further north and these systems start targeting the Midwest.

I suspect based on the ENSO evolution/TNI trends that late April/May may be more active than normal... at least that's what ENSO suggests. I'm expecting the TNI to be weakly negative or maybe even positive by then.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 15 2018, 07:10 PM
Post #24




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 15 2018, 06:02 PM) *
Looking at GFS and Euro, severe weather really is finally starting to ramp up. Bit of a suppressed storm track which is focusing the severe weather further south... I don't recall seeing this type of pattern very often except for a bit early last year. Excited to see what happens when the jet stream lifts further north and these systems start targeting the Midwest.

I suspect based on the ENSO evolution/TNI trends that late April/May may be more active than normal... at least that's what ENSO suggests. I'm expecting the TNI to be weakly negative or maybe even positive by then.

100% agree and yea the current pattern reminds me more of January last season.

Because the storm track is farther south, locations farther north are staying cool and moist. Thus, when stronger solar heating arrives later in the season evapotranspiration will be more effective at boosting CAPE values. Plus, if the storm track stays relatively suppressed through that time frame shear parameters will be more than adequate.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 15 2018, 07:11 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 15 2018, 08:52 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 15 2018, 07:10 PM) *
100% agree and yea the current pattern reminds me more of January last season.

Because the storm track is farther south, locations farther north are staying cool and moist. Thus, when stronger solar heating arrives later in the season evapotranspiration will be more effective at boosting CAPE values. Plus, if the storm track stays relatively suppressed through that time frame shear parameters will be more than adequate.

These storm tracks need to stay somewhat suppressed just like this weekend if one wants a firework of a tornado season. It'll be interesting for sure.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 15 2018, 10:12 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





00z experimental HRRR has no storms popping in the slight risk area FWIW


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 01:07 AM
Post #27




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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Day 1 marginal risk issued due to lack of confidence in storms popping


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 01:59 AM
Post #28




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





GFS and Euro are showing a pretty substantial severe threat in north Texas on Sunday. Be interesting to see what SPC does.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 16 2018, 01:59 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 16 2018, 10:34 AM
Post #29




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Just wow at the LR 12z NAM in central TN
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 11:29 AM
Post #30




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 16 2018, 10:34 AM) *
Just wow at the LR 12z NAM in central TN

Yup... went ahead and made a thread for it. BMX had an excellent discussion this morning.


Even if no storms pop today, gotta admire this dryline. Almost makes it to the Mississippi river.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 04:20 PM
Post #31




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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Got a dryline extending up into Missouri, popping some supercells in west-central MO.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 16 2018, 04:36 PM
Post #32




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From: Morgantown, WV
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 16 2018, 05:20 PM) *
Got a dryline extending up into Missouri, popping some supercells in west-central MO.

Nice looking severe warned cell east of KC, but I think supercells might be a bit of a stretch. They seem to be dying rather quickly


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 04:53 PM
Post #33




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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 16 2018, 04:36 PM) *
Nice looking severe warned cell east of KC, but I think supercells might be a bit of a stretch. They seem to be dying rather quickly

Yeah I agree with that now. The ones near Kansas City looked like it a little bit with a nice hail core, but whatever that was was short-lived.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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snowlover2
post Mar 16 2018, 06:47 PM
Post #34




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Tornado warned storm west of Rolla MO with a funnel cloud spotted.

QUOTE
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
642 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

MOC029-169-170000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0006.000000T0000Z-180317T0000Z/
Pulaski MO-Camden MO-
642 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PULASKI AND EAST CENTRAL CAMDEN COUNTIES...

At 642 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Richland, or 12 miles northwest of Waynesville,
moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a funnel cloud.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Richland... Crocker...
Swedeborg...


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:3

# of T-Storm Warnings:4

# of Tornado Watches:3

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 16 2018, 06:47 PM
Post #35




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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Mar 16 2018, 07:47 PM) *
Tornado warned storm west of Rolla MO with a funnel cloud spotted.

Talk about being discrete


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2018, 12:13 AM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,666
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





blink.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 17 2018, 12:16 AM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 17 2018, 06:24 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 22,666
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Got a number of supercells ongoing, from Tennessee and Kentucky to Texas and Mississippi. 'tis the season.
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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