Feb 18-20 Great Lakes Winter Storm, Short Range OBS Options

[Aylmer]

It's hard to tell how much snow fell here, but I would be comfortable pegging it at about 10cm, with perhaps another couple of cm's before things clear out. I'll classify this system as 'hyped, over-downgraded, but a nice surprise in the end'

[bigmt]

There was some heavy snow for a brief spell and then on-and-off periods of lighter stuff but I definitely didn't achieve 10cm, likely not even 5. Was still a bit surprising since the expectation was basically for flurries this morning. A few bands are passing through now with heavier amounts farther east based on radar.

We're far from done with snow into the long-range if the models are to be believed.

[Cre47]

According to the French Weather Network, Gatineau was at 14 cm as of 12:00 (so looks like another 15+ cm storm for us this winter), I would say around 10-12 specifically at my place.

Edit: 16 cm as of 7:30

This post has been edited by Cre47: Feb 20 2013, 08:33 PM

[newfiebrit]

This is looking like quite the system over the next 24 hours or so with generally 20-30cm expected for a large part of the island (South and East), perhaps more locally, the GEM REG 6z even flirting with 40-45cm though that would seem an outlier for now. Considering though even 2 days ago it didn't look like we would get more than about 5-10cm from this it shows you what they mean by "upgrades in the short term".

The opening blows all ready look pretty intense on the radar, hopefully this time tomorrow I can report back on a foot of snow!:



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[bigmt]

TWN's map for NFLD - http://tinyurl.com/bx8zajp:

 NlSnowFeb21_art_7_33457.jpg ( 31.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

Another powerful storm moved into the Maritimes Wednesday bringing a mix of rain, freezing rain and heavy snow to some places.

As snow picked up across parts of New Brunswick, several school boards cancelled classes for the day.

That's the second time this week that poor weather conditions prompted school closures in the area.

A messy mix of freezing rain and heavy snow has officials closing schools in parts of Newfoundland as well on Thursday.

Up to 30 cm of snow is forecast in the hardest hit places through Friday.

[newfiebrit]

TWN's map for NFLD - http://tinyurl.com/bx8zajp:

 NlSnowFeb21_art_7_33457.jpg ( 31.54K ) Number of downloads: 0

Pretty moderate wet snow here now accumulating nicely, winds fairly light so should be nice even accumulations, much prefer these falls than the usual storms here with it all blowing into a few big drifts!

All the schools had closed early on today, think the freezing drizzle overnight made that decision even easier as was very very slippy out. Generally though closures/snow days should be kept to a minimum elsewhere with it being steadier snow over a long period rather than a windy/stormy few hours dumping huge amounts in a short space of time.

Now if I could just borrow Ryans plow. Best thing is we can all be cleaned up for the weekend in what looks the first dry/settled entire weekend since 11 weeks ago, turning colder too over the next week too so good chance to get out on the weekend and enjoy it all!

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 21 2013, 09:11 AM

[newfiebrit]

Having doubts at the minute we will see anything like was being forecast and shown by the models! Probably around 3cm down so far but it has literally stopped in St Johns, the main band has pushed Northwards and has been weakening the further North it moved, the weather guys on twitter seem adamant it will all pep up later this afternoon and tonight and shift back bringing us back into the proper snow but with such a long pause in accumulations on the cards at a time when it was forecast to be it's most intense is this going to be a bit of a forecasting/model fail? It will be if we don't see much more than a few cm's, the sun is trying to break through now! blink:

Latest radar:



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This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 21 2013, 12:14 PM

[bigmt]

Having doubts at the minute we will see anything like was being forecast and shown by the models! Probably around 3cm down so far but it has literally stopped in St Johns, the main band has pushed Northwards and has been weakening the further North it moved, the weather guys on twitter seem adamant it will all pep up later this afternoon and tonight and shift back bringing us back into the proper snow but with such a long pause in accumulations on the cards at a time when it was forecast to be it's most intense is this going to be a bit of a forecasting/model fail? It will be if we don't see much more than a few cm's, the sun is trying to break through now! blink:

Heavier snow should build back in later this afternoon and continue through the overnight, no worries.

[newfiebrit]

Heavier snow should build back in later this afternoon and continue through the overnight, no worries.

Hope so, cheers, do you think we will see lower accumulations with this dry slot occurring? I can't figure if it was forecast or not, the general forecast was for 24-36 hours of light to moderate snow with the afternoon being the most intense. It's looking like the schools should of stayed open if the main snow is not expected until later on now though hindsight is a wonderful thing.

[bigmt]

Hope so, cheers, do you think we will see lower accumulations with this dry slot occurring? I can't figure if it was forecast or not, the general forecast was for 24-36 hours of light to moderate snow with the afternoon being the most intense. It's looking like the schools should of stayed open if the main snow is not expected until later on now though hindsight is a wonderful thing.

I'd still expect a general 15-25cm before things wrap up tomorrow. Looks like another shot with a retrograding system next week as well.

[newfiebrit]

I'd still expect a general 15-25cm before things wrap up tomorrow. Looks like another shot with a retrograding system next week as well.

I just read EC have dropped the warnings for the South West/East Avalon which is not surprising given the look of the radar. They have kept the warning for us though and North Avalon for 15-25cm by Friday morning, so they must agree too.

http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/bulletins..._211740___25719

It's still line with what was forecast despite this dry spell so here's hoping, I would be delighted with anything near 20cm now after earlier hopes of 30cm.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 21 2013, 12:50 PM

[newfiebrit]

Its filling in over st johns/north avalon in ,the last hour, hopefully will keep it up. The forecasts seem to keep changing the timings and amounts down slightly but should still end up with 15 to 20 when its all done tomorrow. Think the models have struggled a bit with this system in placement of the heaviest stuff?

Edit: Died off again here, pretty brief burst of hour or less. Main band is still sat just North of the Avalon as it has been most of day some areas up there must be getting quite a pasting. Hopefully it will shift back this way but it's meant to move away Eastwards which wont really help us, I'm starting to think the models got the amounts right (30cm) just not quite the placement, you are probably only talking about a 50km shift Northwards but is the difference between basically a few cm's here so far and probably 15cm so far a bit further North with another 15cm to come tonight.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 21 2013, 05:13 PM

[Cre47]

Some parts of eastern Quebec ended up with 50 to 70 cm of snow. Gaspe had another 45 cm on top of the 70 cm from last weekend (some areas actually ended up with 100-120 cm from that one).

Here in the Ottawa-Gatineau area we ended up with 17 cm in two days. Montreal barely 10 cm

This post has been edited by Cre47: Feb 21 2013, 07:43 PM

[shane o mac]

Looks boring the next week or so

[newfiebrit]

Well the forecast was a complete bust for yesterday, apparently the band/trough of snow was narrower than modelled and parked itself 100km further North than modelled.

But boy has it made up for it overnight, 19cm down as of 6:30am and still coming down pretty heavy, I say we will have got our 25cm or more come when it's done just not as planned!

[newfiebrit]

Tapering off here now, would say a touch under 25cm when it's all said and done (including the 5cm we had yesterday). Probably have to say they called it about right, the tiiming off yesterday, can't help think what sort of totals we'd be facing today had it gone as forecast yesterday, or would we not have got so much overnight snow and still be looking at simular amounts. Interesting too see the totals the likes of Clarenville end up with. I was looking at the radar around 11pm before bed last night and had still had doubts as it was still all sat well North and looked to be weakening and given how the forecast failed yesterday confidence wasn't high with the overnight predictions. This is the historic radar loop from 8:30pm last night and can see wasn't untill around 1:30-2am we started to get in the action:

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/rad...ageType=Default

EC got alot of stick for yesterday with all the schools closing for nothing but they have saved face somewhat now, shows how hard precise snowfall prediction is even in this day and age.

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 22 2013, 08:41 AM

[bigmt]

EC got alot of stick for yesterday with all the schools closing for nothing but they have saved face somewhat now, shows how hard precise snowfall prediction is even in this day and age.

A similar situation happened here a while back with freezing rain warnings and (I believe) cancelled school buses which never really materialized.

It's always going to be tricky to forecast snowfall totals on the more localized scales but EC wisely errs on the side of caution, especially when people's safety could be at risk. I think most even-minded folks would be willing to accept a failed forecast here and there.

[newfiebrit]

A similar situation happened here a while back with freezing rain warnings and (I believe) cancelled school buses which never really materialized.

It's always going to be tricky to forecast snowfall totals on the more localized scales but EC wisely errs on the side of caution, especially when people's safety could be at risk. I think most even-minded folks would be willing to accept a failed forecast here and there.

I know I say more than nine times out of 10 they get it right, I think yesterdays system caught everyone out as it didn't go as modelled in terms of the timings and placement/size of the heaviest band. Talk about a comeback overnight though we got near 20cm from about 1am to 11am, official totals including yesterday look to be around 23/24cm....the warnings was for 15-25cm by Friday morning so bang on in that respect.

Snowbanks and snowpack pretty impressive around here now with alot of snow still around from the previous 2 storms with this storm on top and looks like will be around or below freezing for least the next week....wonderful winter weather!

This post has been edited by newfiebrit: Feb 22 2013, 10:04 AM

[newfiebrit]

Love this guy, good explanation of Thur/Fri on/off storm and the coming week:

http://www.cbc.ca/nl/blogs/ryansnoddon/201...-to-return.html