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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts, Look-Back
grace
post Dec 6 2014, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Dec 6 2014, 02:25 PM) *
I humbly disagree with this. The high freq MJO wave will begin to exit the maritimes continent over the next few days and it will lose its superposition with the CCKW as it does so, hence the reduced amplitude on the RMM/OLR plots. Despite this reality, the fact that VP200 will be in a more classic weak WC position(E Pac-ATL forcing) the NPAC jet will be forced to contract(-MT event), strengthening the Aleutian low-AK high with a trough downstream. This is the pattern were headed to by ~12/20 IMO.



Moot...in the sense that if you have an impulse in phase 6, 7 etc....but impulse is weak & boderline COD then the usually impact of a phase 6, 7 or whatever is minimal at best as far as sensible weather impacts. Now I agree that IT IS SIGNIFICANT that it's weak & we enter COD again....this allows other significant factors to control.

BUT...I'm don't think that's why he posted it but not for sure. wink.gif
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ChiTownSnow
post Dec 6 2014, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 6 2014, 05:19 PM) *
The GFS is the "coldest" or most progressive with the torch, and it still has a couple days with highs in the upper 30's and lower 40's. That's still not warm enough for a rapid melt... but it should melt a bit. They'll maybe lose a couple inches. It's probably nothing to worry about.




'couple inches" is the key word though. Most areas only have a couple inches unless you get far north. there are definitely localized areas that have more, the UP of Michigan is one of those. but the localized areas are not enough to keep the cold air from moderating IF/when it comes to our neck of the woods
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 6 2014, 07:49 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 6 2014, 07:33 PM) *
Moot...in the sense that if you have an impulse in phase 6, 7 etc....but impulse is weak & boderline COD then the usually impact of a phase 6, 7 or whatever is minimal at best as far as sensible weather impacts. Now I agree that IT IS SIGNIFICANT that it's weak & we enter COD again....this allows other significant factors to control.

BUT...I'm don't think that's why he posted it but not for sure. wink.gif

Correct... sorry I made you guys play the guessing game with my intentions. At least I brought up an interesting discussion. smile.gif Was just showing the evolution of the MJO forecast, since Euro was the only one skipping the 4th phase and going straight into the COD. Euro wins again. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 6 2014, 08:01 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 6 2014, 08:28 PM
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SW Ohio got more rain over the past 2 days than we got in all of November (~1.7")

Very interesting past few months its been. Very dry September followed by a wetter October, followed by a very dry November, followed by what's likely gonna be a wetter December.

I did some amateur research back in early October, looking at the precipitation pattern for the months following a very dry September (generally <1" of rain). I've referenced it a few times in the Fall thread, but I want to bring it up again because this forum is now in full fledged winter mode.. a lot of people haven't seen it.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 2 2014, 01:38 PM) *
Since September/October/November are important for identifying the new annual pattern, I found something that gives me access to 119 years of precipitation records. Curious to see if there's any correlation between September precipitation and the following months, I skimmed from 1980-2014 to look for Septembers that were equally as dry as 2014.

Looking for Septembers like this:


I'm looking at the broad region east of the Rockies...

The best analogs I found were 2010, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1997, 1995, 1994, 1991, 1985, 1984.

October 2010, 1999, 1998, 1994, and 1991 turned out to be much drier than September
October 2004, 1997, 1995, 1985, and 1984 turned out to be wetter than September

Each November, except 1999 and 1998, turned out to be wetter than October.

December 2010, 2004, 1998, 1997, 1994, 1991, 1985, and 1984 turned out to be drier than November
December 1995 turned out to be wetter than November
December 1999 was approximately as wet as November

So...
  • There's a 50% chance of October being drier than the dry September.
  • There's an 80% chance November will be wetter than October.
  • There's a 70% chance December will be drier than November.
  • I think this supports the idea that a dry September translates to a dry December.
  • Novembers are most likely to bust droughts
Results... I just wasted an hour on researching something that doesn't mean much... yay me! laugh.gif
This research may come in handy once October is over. Then we can narrow it down a bit more.


Literally no years in the past 34 years match this general pattern... but 1995 and 1999 are the most similar of all. That's not to say those winters are the appropriate analogs though... in fact, it's quite the opposite. This goes back to my point that too many variables go into our weather to look just at the SST's in the past 65 years and call it an analog. If I were to go with the current protocol for seasonal analogs, I think 2002-2003 fits best... but meh.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 6 2014, 08:35 PM


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
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Stratocumulus
post Dec 6 2014, 09:01 PM
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Euro says AO goes off the charts positive by mid-month. Not sure why everyone here believes there's a pattern change coming soon and/or the warmth won't be bad. Next two weeks, at least, are very mild for the CONUS as a whole. CONUS snow cover is already essentially in a 2nd place tie for lowest of the past 12 years, and after the NE storm melts off, will probably be lowest.

Attached File  original_29976767.jpg ( 130.87K ) Number of downloads: 4
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brooklynwx99
post Dec 6 2014, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Dec 6 2014, 09:01 PM) *
Euro says AO goes off the charts positive by mid-month. Not sure why everyone here believes there's a pattern change coming soon and/or the warmth won't be bad. Next two weeks, at least, are very mild for the CONUS as a whole. CONUS snow cover is already essentially in a 2nd place tie for lowest of the past 12 years, and after the NE storm melts off, will probably be lowest.

Attached File  original_29976767.jpg ( 130.87K ) Number of downloads: 4


The presumed pattern change is probably going to occur outside of the range of the 240 hr OP Euro. The 18z GEFS later in its run says otherwise.



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Attached File  gfs_ens_z500a_namer_65.png ( 436.81K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 6 2014, 09:06 PM
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QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Dec 6 2014, 09:01 PM) *
Euro says AO goes off the charts positive by mid-month. Not sure why everyone here believes there's a pattern change coming soon and/or the warmth won't be bad. Next two weeks, at least, are very mild for the CONUS as a whole. CONUS snow cover is already essentially in a 2nd place tie for lowest of the past 12 years, and after the NE storm melts off, will probably be lowest.

Attached File  original_29976767.jpg ( 130.87K ) Number of downloads: 4

The models have toned down the warm-up, that's why people are saying the warmth won't be so bad. We'll probably have at least one day with highly positive anomalies, especially if the system on the 16th or 20th has a strong LLJ. But it won't be as long lasting as previously thought.



...and hires Euro is apparently an outlier.


An interesting development in the Gulf... the waters have rapidly warmed.. probably entering positive anomalies very soon. I think this implies that, if we get a southerly LLJ ahead of a system, the moisture/warmth return will be more anomalous until we get a deep sinking cold front. This should be good news for storm lovers.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 6 2014, 09:11 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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The Snowman
post Dec 6 2014, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Dec 6 2014, 04:36 PM) *
You can see the +MT event in the 6-10 day period on the 12z Euro. This is allowing the GOA trough to remain further east in a very unfavourable position. Eventually, when tropical forcing progresses we should see the E Asian MT pattern reverse... and this will allow a modified "Branstator retrograding North Pac Pattern" to take place allowing the EPO to dip considerably.
[attachment=244244:ecmwf_ms..._asia_10.png]

Refresh my memory, the positive MT event is identified by the low pressure anomalies over the mountains, not (necessarily) by the HP anomalies to the north?


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Gilbertfly
post Dec 6 2014, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Dec 6 2014, 08:01 PM) *
Euro says AO goes off the charts positive by mid-month. Not sure why everyone here believes there's a pattern change coming soon and/or the warmth won't be bad. Next two weeks, at least, are very mild for the CONUS as a whole. CONUS snow cover is already essentially in a 2nd place tie for lowest of the past 12 years, and after the NE storm melts off, will probably be lowest.

Attached File  original_29976767.jpg ( 130.87K ) Number of downloads: 4


It depends on what pattern you are looking at....regardless, the warmth already isn't as "bad" as had been forecasted by models....speaking of which....I don't trust H84 of any global model, let alone H240...

The "pattern change" is only in the minds of the long range models and it's scribes compared to it's other long range nonsense...
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OSNW3
post Dec 6 2014, 09:59 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Dec 6 2014, 08:06 PM) *


Seems there is a piece of energy missing from the dominant harmonic. ~mid 40s. (analysis)

Attached File  dwm500_test_20141023_27.gif ( 298.88K ) Number of downloads: 30



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Gilbertfly
post Dec 6 2014, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 6 2014, 08:59 PM) *
Seems there is a piece of energy missing from the dominant harmonic. ~mid 40s. (analysis)


and josh presents my "model" of choice...top notch image there btw...so cool
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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 6 2014, 10:22 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 6 2014, 09:59 PM) *
Seems there is a piece of energy missing from the dominant harmonic. ~mid 40s. (analysis)

Attached File  dwm500_test_20141023_27.gif ( 298.88K ) Number of downloads: 30

That's incredible


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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OSNW3
post Dec 6 2014, 10:27 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Dec 6 2014, 09:22 PM) *
and josh presents my "model" of choice...top notch image there btw...so cool


Lol. I should have stated it better, that there is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Dec 6 2014, 11:58 PM
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GFS has a very underwhelming system on the 14th/15th.

Looking good here...
http://i.imgur.com/T0ze8BO.png

...not so much here.
http://i.imgur.com/dSd3gSg.png

Here's the system in the Bering
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014112321.gif
http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hi....2014112420.gif

So it should be a strengthening system, not a weakening one.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Dec 6 2014, 11:58 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 7 (Last: 8/16/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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OSNW3
post Dec 7 2014, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 6 2014, 08:59 PM) *
Seems there is a piece of energy missing from the dominant harmonic. ~mid 40s. (analysis)

Attached File  dwm500_test_20141023_27.gif ( 298.88K ) Number of downloads: 30


QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Dec 6 2014, 09:27 PM) *
Lol. I should have stated it better, that there is a piece of energy missing from this current pattern compared to the dominant harmonic pattern from ~mid 40 days ago.


I suppose I can see the energy here...

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_namer_17.png ( 455.84K ) Number of downloads: 1

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...vort_namer.html


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grace
post Dec 7 2014, 09:16 AM
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Everyone also needs to keep in mind that the initial coming colder pattern this month will be primarily because of a strong -EPO. Now AO will go negative also but the punch looks to be the two together. I don't see a -NAO being able to develop until January. -NAO doesn't necessarily "bring" the cold but is needed to "sustain" the cold. Historically "prolonged" cold patterns "as a rule of thumb" (because there are exceptions) depend more so on a good -NAO that really puts the breaks on the pattern.
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blizzardOf96
post Dec 7 2014, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Dec 6 2014, 09:37 PM) *
Refresh my memory, the positive MT event is identified by the low pressure anomalies over the mountains, not (necessarily) by the HP anomalies to the north?


Exactly. HP anoms pressing up against the N and E side of a mountain range. In this case the TP would have -SLP anoms to its SW.


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grace
post Dec 7 2014, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 7 2014, 08:16 AM) *
Everyone also needs to keep in mind that the initial coming colder pattern this month will be primarily because of a strong -EPO. Now AO will go negative also but the punch looks to be the two together. I don't see a -NAO being able to develop until January. -NAO doesn't necessarily "bring" the cold but is needed to "sustain" the cold. Historically "prolonged" cold patterns "as a rule of thumb" (because there are exceptions) depend more so on a good -NAO that really puts the breaks on the pattern.



Well...right after posting this I do a quick ensemble run through & what do I see? A east-based -NAO on GEFS, GGEM, & NAEFS looking at me. -EPO also. So...don't know if that will verify but if it is my post above would obviously be wrong. I don't think it will be but I'd gladly be wrong. laugh.gif
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cary67
post Dec 7 2014, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 7 2014, 08:23 AM) *
Well...right after posting this I do a quick ensemble run through & what do I see? A east-based -NAO on GEFS, GGEM, & NAEFS looking at me. -EPO also. So...don't know if that will verify but if it is my post above would obviously be wrong. I don't think it will be but I'd gladly be wrong. laugh.gif

Whats wrong with an east-based -NAO?
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jdrenken
post Dec 7 2014, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Dec 7 2014, 10:03 AM) *
Whats wrong with an east-based -NAO?


Everything for people on the East Coast as it forces a storm track to either be a Panhandle Hook, Great Lakes Cutter, or Appalachian Runner.


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