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Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 05:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


No end in sight on the 12z gfs, shows 40's and 50's for highs in the 3rd week of may..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227561 · Replies: · Views: 6,524

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 07:10 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


This would be a 1st for me..

QUOTE
Precip type will start off as all rain Saturday evening, but enough
cold air aloft and at the surface will wrap into the western edge of
the system to allow for wet snow to mix in late Saturday night
across Western NY. By Sunday morning precip type will likely change
to all wet snow across the higher terrain of Western NY, with at
least a mix with wet snow at lower elevations and possibly all snow
for a time. This will then continue through the day Sunday, with a
mix of rain/snow at lower elevations and potentially all snow across
higher terrain. Sunday night the airmass grows even colder, with
850mb temps bottoming out in the -7C to -9C range depending on model
of choice. This will allow even the lower elevations to change to
mainly wet snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The airmass aloft
remains very chilly through the day Monday, as does the boundary
layer, with all snow in the morning transitioning to a mix of rain
and wet snow in the afternoon as the diurnal cycle tries to warm the
boundary layer


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227518 · Replies: · Views: 6,524

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 5 2017, 06:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Another 3/4" in the bucket so far with plenty more to come, Gfs is close to some mangled flakes with surface in the mid 30s and 850 mb temps dropping down to -8c, won't happen here but north/elevation "may" see some flakes..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227517 · Replies: · Views: 2,957

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 07:41 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Not much severe here, just pouring out..Picked up 2.2" of rain so far..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227307 · Replies: · Views: 4,735

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 09:20 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
There is very high confidence that this will be a wet and unsettled
period. In fact...our forecast area will most likely be on the
receiving end of another significant rainfall...something that we do
not need after one of the wettest April`s in recorded history. The
GEFS and ECMWF based ensembles (including the operational runs) are
in strong agreement that an unusually well organized storm for early
May will track from the Tennessee Valley across our forecast area.
This system will be more typical of a mid winter storm...both in its
intensity...upper level support and overall structure. The only
difference is that temperatures will be some 5 deg c too high for a
major snowstorm. That being said...


QUOTE
The pending storm system will be supported by a highly amplified
pattern...again...more typical of mid winter. A very strong...full
latitude ridge will be anchored over the western states while an
anomalously deep trough (-3 STD) with an early May return interval
of once every 10 years will be found over the eastern third of the
country. Despite the impressive climatology behind this pattern...
there will initially be two distinct branches within the deep
trough. The wet storm system that will bring a substantial rainfall
to our region will be found within the southern branch...but as we
work through the weekend...very robust energy within the northern
branch will dive south across the Upper Great Lakes to phase the two
into a broad closed low that will largely reside over western Quebec


QUOTE
Digging deeper into the details of this storm system...it will
already be raining across all of our forecast area as we open this
period Thursday evening...but the most significant rain will be yet
to come. A strongly divergent upper level flow will be in place
across the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night...while even stronger
forcing aloft will be generated from a coupled H25 jet. Meanwhile in
the low levels...increasing baroclinicity in the H925-85 layer will
establish a steep surface for a 40-50kt low level jet to impinge up
on. All of this lift will be accompanied by a wealth of Atlantic
moisture that will extend back across our region from the Delmarva
Peninsula. This will boil down to a steady rain Thursday...which
could prove to be heavy at times...mainly over the western counties.
Have taken the lead and raised pops to 90 regionwide.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227210 · Replies: · Views: 2,957

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: May 1 2017, 09:15 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
SPC has Western New York in an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms. This is supported by forecast wind profiles with
850mb winds increasing to 50-60 kts resulting in shear due to the
increase in wind speed with height. If there is ample instability,
this wind profile can support bowing segments with damaging winds
and even isolated tornadoes. For this event, the main forecast
question is how much instability will develop ahead of the front. In
this case, it appears there will be considerable debris clouds, and
possibly some showers which develop ahead of the front but too early
to take advantage of daytime heating. This may limit surface based
instability in some areas, but even so there is enough dynamic
forcing ahead of the strong upper low to pose some severe
weather risk. The risk will be greater in areas which get more
sunshine ahead of the front, where wind profiles could support
supercell Development


QUOTE
Convection may focus on the cold front, or along a pre-frontal
trough, with some mesoscale guidance even hinting at the development
of a convective complex. The greatest risk for severe weather is
from mid-afternoon through this evening.


QUOTE
In addition to the severe weather threat, storms will produce
locally heavy rainfall with a risk for flooding. It now appears
that a line of showers will move across the area this morning.
There is another round of more significant rainfall expected
this afternoon and evening, with a potential for a large area of
convection to develop. It has been very wet, with flash flood
guidance quite low. There is a risk for both stream and creek
flooding and flash flooding depending on how the event plays
out. Rainfall amounts greater than 1.25 inches in an hour could
cause flash flooding in urban areas and areas with steep
terrain. Based on this have issued a flood watch for the entire CWA
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2227208 · Replies: · Views: 4,735

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 30 2017, 11:42 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Can't get much better then this for early may, at least for me lol

QUOTE
Tuesday
Showers likely, mainly between 10am and 3pm. Cloudy, with a high near 54. Southwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night Scattered showers, mainly before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. Southwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39.

Thursday A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Thursday Night Rain. Low around 44. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Occasional rain. High near 58. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Sunday A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2227193 · Replies: · Views: 67,447

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 20 2017, 08:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


No shortage of rain so far this year, picked up 3/4" two days ago, another 1/2" so far today with pouring rain,thunder and lightning..About 7" over the last 30days..
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2226410 · Replies: · Views: 67,447

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 10:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbgm wins the golden snowball award by 0.1"

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2225921 · Replies: · Views: 526,469

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 10 2017, 10:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Reached 82.8 degrees at my house, 81 at the airport..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225919 · Replies: · Views: 3,844

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 9 2017, 06:38 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Final statistics for Fulton NY, finished about 16" below normal..

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  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2225817 · Replies: · Views: 526,469

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 7 2017, 01:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Flipped to snow way earlier than expected, down to 34 degrees..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225673 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 11:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


1.5" liquid so far, temp down to 38 degrees..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225664 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 10:47 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Already flipped over at Kroc which is about 60 miles west of here, should bode well for the rest of the night..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225655 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 07:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Kbuf

QUOTE
This being an anomalous event with a tricky forecast, the event will
be closely watched for any possible expansion of Winter Weather
Advisories or even an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if QPF and
SLRs are higher due to dynamic and evaporational cooling if the low
deepens further than current model guidance and rain changes over sooner


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225629 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 07:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Almost an inch of liquid so far, 3.73 over the last 7 days, nearing 6" over the last 30 days..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225627 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 02:31 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Toasty

Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 76.

Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54.

Tuesday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2225582 · Replies: · Views: 67,447

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 02:21 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Rain starting to ramp up here..

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index...e=TYX-N0Q-1-12#
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225579 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 11:37 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Where was this over the past 3 months lol That being said almost all models have some kind of backend snow for W/WCNY, models seem to be trending a little east with this one as well..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225542 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 09:04 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


On the snowy side of things, 6z nam..


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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225508 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 6 2017, 01:58 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


It looks like wny could see several inches from this, especially higher elevations, may be able to eek out a little something here depending on the exact track..(How fast colder air rushes in)

0z euro

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225484 · Replies: · Views: 13,290

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Apr 4 2017, 08:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Picked up 1.66" of rain today, 3" over the last week and 5" in the last 30 days..
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2225178 · Replies: · Views: 3,758

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 30 2017, 10:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Moderate snow here with about 1/2"-3/4" of slop down which is more than any model not named the 18zNAM/hrrr showed..Temp down to 32.8..

Forecast for tonight

Tonight
Rain. Low around 36. East wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2224479 · Replies: · Views: 18,603

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 09:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Rainy season getting a head start, we need as much rain as we can get in the early going with how unpredictable summer/tstorms can be..Per usual the models still not in agreement..

6z Gfs weekly rainfall for upstate..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223210 · Replies: · Views: 19,421

Mike W IN herkim...
Posted on: Mar 22 2017, 09:02 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,224
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547


Picked up between 1/4"-1/2" but the real story is the cold/wind, absolutely brutal out , roads are a sheet of ice.

20 degree drop overnight..

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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2223207 · Replies: · Views: 4,400

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