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> The LRC Thread 2011/2012, A New Year...A New Pattern
jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 21 2012, 07:22 PM) *
Seen this today
Source
Source

and couldn't help to think back to mid-April
Source

and
Source

Doesn't seem to be as pronounced or potent this time though


Nice pick-ups! Reminds me of how we would relate systems last year by pulling prior quotes in earlier threads and how much they mimic-ed the "current" threads.


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jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 09:26 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ May 21 2012, 09:22 PM) *
jdrenken for moderator of the year!


I am no different than the other mods...except one. They have lives. wink.gif laugh.gif


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jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 11:40 AM
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Gary has issued his summer forecast...sadly, it looks like the parent company has stopped the youtube video.

LRC Blog


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grandpaboy
post May 22 2012, 11:39 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 22 2012, 10:26 AM) *
I am no different than the other mods...except one. They have lives. wink.gif laugh.gif



I didn't even know other MODs existed anymore.......... laugh.gif


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OSNW3
post May 22 2012, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 22 2012, 10:40 AM) *
Gary has issued his summer forecast...sadly, it looks like the parent company has stopped the youtube video.

LRC Blog


I do not agree with GL's claim of the cycle being 41-44 day cycle length right now.


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WeatherMonger
post May 22 2012, 11:58 AM
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Today's ILX AFD

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
259 AM CDT TUE MAY 22 2012

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SFC LOWS DEVELOPING IN THE PLAINS...AHEAD
OF A DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH...WILL CAUSE THE FRONT TO STALL OUT
IN/NEAR THE NORTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY. WITH STRONG WARMING IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS EXPECT CAPPING TO PREVENT ANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AGAIN IT APPEARS THE FAR NW CWA
AND POINTS NORTH WOULD BE MOST FAVORED FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
HAVE SCHC POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

FRONT SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND AS A STRONG
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...A HOT AND DRY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WILL BE ON TAP. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S WILL GIVE A TRUE SUMMERTIME FEEL TO THE AIRMASS.


BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODEL AGREEMENT TANKS...00Z GFS ADVERTISES
ADDITIONAL ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH TO FLATTEN THE
RIDGE...BRINGING A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO OUR PART OF
THE MIDWEST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LATEST ECMWF RUN WOULD POINT
TO A WEAKENING RIDGE BUT KEEPING THE MAIN STORM TRACK WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS TO SCHC/LOW CHC WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FARTHER NORTH.
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jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 12:19 PM
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Some other key points...

April 14-18 NE/Mid-Atl Warmup

May 26-? MidAtl/NE Heat Spell


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jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 12:41 PM
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GFS is going to be just a tad early for this to show up.

12Z 22MAY12 GFS

Hour 276


April 23rd


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OSNW3
post May 22 2012, 12:46 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 22 2012, 11:19 AM) *


Makes sense to me. Hot off the presses. smile.gif



http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDFNYC1112.html


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OSNW3
post May 22 2012, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 22 2012, 11:41 AM) *
GFS is going to be just a tad early for this to show up.


Not if GL's current thinking of cycle duration is correct... However, I have a sneaky feeling that GL's comparison had 5/16 tied to 9/30,11/17,1/2,2/17,4/3 which IMHO it is not...

And he saw the GFS output you show above for 6/3 tied to 4/23.

Like I said before, I do not agree with GL's claim of the cycle being 41-44 day cycle length right now.

My thinking is below, but in reality, who am I to disagree? smile.gif
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/Calendar1112.html

EDIT: I should specify that it is my assumption written above to how GL came to his 41-44 day duration conclusion mentioned in his blog entry referenced by jdrenken earlier. Also, I know that assumption is "to make an *bleep* out of u and me", so I apologize to you. smile.gif

This post has been edited by OSNW3: May 22 2012, 01:21 PM


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jdrenken
post May 22 2012, 04:12 PM
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Euro is showing the pattern is true and on course with mid-late April. Those with paid versions can see the 6hr increments support it.


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WeatherMonger
post May 23 2012, 04:37 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 AM CDT WED MAY 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO EJECT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD THEN INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY DAY5. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE DOMINANT
TN VALLEY RIDGE. VERY WARM EML WILL EXPAND NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD WITH 14C AT 700MB EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO SD
EARLY. ALONG THE NRN/ERN EDGE OF THIS WARM PLUME THERE WILL LIKELY
BE ROBUST ELEVATED CONVECTION DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE SEVERE BUT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHENING CAP WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD. HOWEVER...MUCH STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE EJECTING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY FOCUS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGES EWD. SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT
SHOULD ERODE THE CAP ENABLING MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.

..DARROW.. 05/23/2012
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jdrenken
post May 23 2012, 03:11 PM
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The Euro is showing a powerful system to hit the Alaskan Peninsula on June 2nd. This one I believe per the LRC match-up to April 18th with a system to it's West in the Aleutian chain and ridging in the Canadian Rockies.

April 18th



Euro
Attached File  12Z_Euro_30MAY12.JPG ( 214.46K ) Number of downloads: 1


A couple days later, this showed up on the 23rd.


to which it was hinted at earlier.


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jdrenken
post May 23 2012, 05:10 PM
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I am increasingly becoming worried about the late June period as that's when we saw record highs matching with early May and late March.


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OSNW3
post May 24 2012, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 23 2012, 04:10 PM) *
I am increasingly becoming worried about the late June period as that's when we saw record highs matching with early May and late March.


Indeed. If the ring of fire gets working again like it did in March, it's gonna be HOT. Take the months listed below with a grain of salt because I am just mentioning cycles defining the period you mention above... see trends linked below.

Oct - below avg
Dec - above avg
Feb - above avg
Mar - above avg
May - below avg
Jun - ???

I suppose we could go back to Aug and see what was happening as the cycle was morphing... ???

Odds are, above avg...

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDF1112.html
http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/TempDFCOU1112.html (MO)


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WeatherMonger
post May 24 2012, 11:49 AM
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Todays SPC 4-8 Day outlook



QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE...BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...THAT A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY4 PERIOD...THEN INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES DAY5. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ERODE THE WARM EML
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST SUCH THAT STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BY LATE IN THE WEEK
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE PLAINS. SRN EXTENT OF ORGANIZED
SEVERE EACH OF THESE DAYS IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION BUT LIKELY LIMITED
BY HEIGHT FALLS THAT SHOULD EXTEND INTO KS/MO.

..DARROW.. 05/24/2012




And 44 days ago



QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 10 2012

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY SEWD ACROSS CA/NV ON
D4/FRI INTO THE SWRN STATES/NRN MEXICO DURING D5/SAT AND D6/SUN
RESULTING IN DEEPENING OF THE WRN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL
SUSTAIN A SWLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM NM THROUGH OK/KS TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING FRI-SUN. ON D4...THE GFS DIFFERS WITH THE
ECMWF INDICATING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. DESPITE THIS
DIFFERENCE...EACH MODEL CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR WARM SECTOR
MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION EXTENDING NWD ACROSS OK AND CENTRAL/ERN KS ON
D4 AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD AND EXPANDED IN AREAL COVERAGE ON D5.

THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS REMAIN SIMILAR FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR FRI APR 13 AND SAT APR 14. SWLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ON D4 TO 50-70 KT WITH A FURTHER
INCREASE ON D5 AS A 70-90 KT JET MOVES FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN
TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH A STRONG SLY LLJ MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE OUTLOOK AREAS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
WARM SECTOR. VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL PROMOTE THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ALSO PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

BEYOND D5...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE WRN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BECOME PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING EWD...BUT MODELS TEND TO DIFFER IN THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS TROUGH. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON D6/SUN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...THOUGH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
MAY TEND TO LIMIT A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/10/2012
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Gilbertfly
post May 24 2012, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 24 2012, 11:49 AM) *
Todays SPC 4-8 Day outlook

And 44 days ago


nice monger!
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Gilbertfly
post May 24 2012, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ May 23 2012, 05:10 PM) *
I am increasingly becoming worried about the late June period as that's when we saw record highs matching with early May and late March.


yeah, there could be some crazy numbers going forward @ that time period
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OSNW3
post May 24 2012, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ May 24 2012, 11:33 AM) *
nice monger!


I actually wondered where he had taken you. smile.gif


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WeatherMonger
post May 24 2012, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ May 24 2012, 12:33 PM) *
nice monger!

Actually, I'm not too sure I got things lined up right. I'm not a skilled as the rest of you in this, there was a string of quite a few 4-8 outlooks with delineations. I might be a few days off
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