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Rank: F5 Superstorm
56 years old
Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
On Fb as the WxWiinii
Joined: 12-February 10
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Local Time: Feb 21 2017, 05:47 AM
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14 Feb 2017
Might as well...
To be voted as the least popular thread of the season.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Afterward...GEFS and EC guidance still indicates above normal
1000-500 mb thickness and 850 mb temps with a distinct split
flow pattern across the central and eastern U.S. The passage of
a weak northern stream trough that will bring a few periods of
clouds and generally non-measurable sprinkles to the northern
and western mtns later Saturday into Sunday, will be followed
by yet another sharp ridge aloft and sprawling sfc high will
bring fair and unseasonably mild air right through early next
week, with little threat for measurable precip before the middle
of next week.
For Sat night through Tuesday night, overnight low temps (in
the 30s Central and NW PA...to near 40F at times in the SE) will
be consistently mild and near normal highs in the greater
Harrisburg area, and as much as 8-10 deg above what we see at 2
pm in mid February across the NW mtns and Laurel Highlands.
Daytime highs during this same period will vary from the upper
40s to near 50F across the NW mtns...to the mid and upper 50s in
the SE (a whopping 15-20F above normal highs).
8 Feb 2017
7 Feb 2017
23 Jan 2017
15 Jan 2017
In the spirit of "why not", and particularly because we've been mentioning this time period in the 17-20th thread, I've decided to go ahead and open this for discussion within its own thread.
A few of us, who shall at present, remain nameless - have been looking at this time period for the potential of a multiple phase scenario, based on assessment of upper air pattern signals plus OFM signals (which may be for just beyond this time period, but I believe are comparable in the main)
To start off, I'll show the most recent 12z GFS Op run - and will add other thoughts and maps as I go along.
Verbatim, there have been mostly "warm" solutions for our region, but a few ensemble members suggest otherwise.
This GFS run features a SLP at MDBR's house, with flooding type rain for UTS Hill. Issue remains, how strong does this become and can it, therefore, manufacture (as it were) any cold air?
H5 look for next frame. HOLY MOLY
Here's a look at 00z EURO (via MeteoCentre site)
Whether the two shall meet, where they meet, how they meet - all important discussion points. Could create a separate thread for the dates past this one, to boot.
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