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bigmt
Posted on: Today, 04:04 PM


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Impressive for within day 6; see if it makes it into the short range in such a state:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223698 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 03:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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newfie can leave those patio chairs out because they'll make for wonderful pics if this comes to pass, along with some well-padded stats just in the nick of time wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223697 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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12z ECMWF stays with it's outlook for Atlantic Canada, delivering substantial amounts of snow for NL between the end of month system and another possible low around around the 3rd of April.

Also support for storminess through the GL on the same general timeline as previous runs have suggested. Depiction is wet for S ON and messy into QC for the system around the 31st. Another notable disturbance on a similar track around the 4th as well.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223694 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 01:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

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Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

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Hour 360 - Day 15:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223690 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 11:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
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Canadian also broadly backing the Euro's take on the medium range, ejecting multiple lows into the east.

12z CMC @ hour 144:

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Hour 240:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223679 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 11:42 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
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From: Ottawa
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Latest from the GFS and CMC offering support for the possible storm in Atlantic Canada near the end of the month.

12z GFS @ hour 132:

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Total snowfall (cm) @ hour 156:

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12z CMC @ hour 132:

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Total snowfall @ hour 156:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223678 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 11:01 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,292
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From: Ottawa
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Accuweather - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...-march/70001216

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223675 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 09:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


I could use some assistance in the east during the home stretch or else it's a bit more crow for me - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=2201698

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223669 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 08:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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WPC surface forecast for day 5:

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Discussion - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
MULTI-DAY MEANS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAINTENANCE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN STATES WITH FLAT FLOW TO MODERATE
MEAN RIDGING PREVAILING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE EAST, WHILE A SEPARATE
NRN STREAM PROGRESSES ALONG EITHER SIDE OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WITHIN THIS CONSENSUS MEAN PATTERN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD FOR SOME EMBEDDED FEATURES.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFS ARISE ALREADY BY EARLY DAY 3 WED WITH A SYSTEM
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. RECENT GFS/GEFS MEAN RUNS HAVE BEEN
EARLIER TO CLOSE OFF ENERGY ALOFT RESULTING IN A DEEPER/WWD SFC
SYSTEM THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS.

THE COMBINED EVOLUTION OF THE ABOVE SYSTEM AND UPSTREAM FLOW
ALONG/N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE
STRONG UPR LOW AND ASSOC SFC SYSTEM INITIALLY OVER THE SRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS. THE PLAINS SYSTEM CLUSTERS FAIRLY WELL INTO EARLY
DAY 4 THU BUT THEN SOLNS RAPIDLY DIVERGE DEPENDING ON FLOW OVER
THE NERN U.S./SERN CANADA. GFS/GEFS SCENARIO OF MORE PERSISTENT
NERN U.S. TROUGHING ALOFT, NOW JOINED BY THE 00Z UKMET, RESULTS IN
A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED TRACK OF THE PLAINS SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES
THE EAST. THUS FAR THE MAJORITY SOLN HAS BEEN MORE IN THE REALM
OF THE ECMWF/CMC AND THEIR MEANS WITH A SFC TRACK INTO THE GRTLKS,
CLOSER TO THE PRIOR LOW TRACKS WITHIN THE ESTABLISHED MEAN
PATTERN. EVEN WITH THE DISPARITY IN TRACKS OVER THE EAST, THERE
MAY BE SOME CONVERGENCE IN SOLNS OFF THE EAST COAST.

THE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS, WITH POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR EACH UPR
LOW CENTER AND WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIP PERSIST, AS WELL AS LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING COOL ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223666 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 08:32 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
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Eyeballing it GWT seems to be doing well, although even he was underdone in YVR (just by the least amount).

That and overdoing the North York station seem to be the biggest misfires for the majority.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223665 · Replies: · Views: 1,746

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 06:57 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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06z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

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Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

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Hour 360 - Day 15:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223660 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 04:37 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


Today's snowfall numbers.

YYJ Victoria, BC - 58.3cm / 39cm (+0)
YVR Vancouver, BC - 69.6cm / 37.7cm (+0)
YYC Calgary, AB - 95.8cm / 84.1cm (+0)

YHM Hamilton, ON - 95.6cm / 146.9cm (+0)
YYZ Toronto, ON - 78.8cm / 103.6cm (+0)
YOW Ottawa, ON - 293.7cm / 208.2cm (+0)
YUL Montreal, QC - 229.3cm / 194.8cm (+0)
YSJ Saint John, NB - 298.2cm / 217.8cm (+0.4)
YYG Charlottetown, PEI - 324cm / 260.5cm (+0.8)
YHZ Halifax, NS - 357.1cm / 203cm (+1)
YQY Sydney, NS - 408.4cm / 258.6cm (+0.8)
YYT St. John's, NL - 395.1cm / 302.8cm (+0.4)
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223655 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 03:41 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


QUOTE(bigmt @ Mar 25 2017, 07:58 PM) *
Activity could just equal spring sogginess in some areas but a lack of QPF isn't a major issue via the GFS ensembles:


Still the case as of 00z:

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QUOTE
The 12z Euro was also intriguing for Newfoundland before the month is out.


Also still the case as of 00z, basically out to day 10 if that's accurate.

Good ol' fashioned potential anyway but one way or another I'm only in for a slice of it:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223653 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Today, 03:33 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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00z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223652 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 06:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


Activity could just equal spring sogginess in some areas but a lack of QPF isn't a major issue via the GFS ensembles:

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In terms of snow specifically there remains a threat for Atlantic Canada this coming week, hour 96:

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Hour 108:

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Hour 120:

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The 12z Euro was also intriguing for Newfoundland before the month is out.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223642 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 03:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Totals are completely insane! What's your average snowfall? I think I'd like to move to Newfoundland!


YYT averages 334.9cm annually. A big league player by that much sought-after metric.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223633 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:59 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 25 2017, 03:53 PM) *
Here's Pearson and Buttonville's top 10 list FWIW...


Nice work geek! Crowd-sourcing this information has advantages, no doubt.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223632 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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Dynamic & active - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml

QUOTE
THE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
PERSIST OF A RELATIVELY ACTIVE FLOW REGIME FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE U.S. NORTHWEST. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL SPLIT AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST, WITH A NUMBER OF
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
STREAM ACROSS CANADA, AND A MORE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS
THE CONUS. PARTIAL PHASING OF THE TWO STREAMS WILL OCCUR
PERIODICALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S.

SUCH PHASING WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF OCCURRING ON DAY 3 (12Z
TUE) ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
NORTHERN COMPONENT ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND A SOUTHERN COMPONENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MOVE EAST, WITH THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT BY
DAY 4 (12Z WED) OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
WHICH SKIRTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON DAY 5. CONSENSUS IS HIGH IN THE
GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, AS IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
AMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST, WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW POSSIBLE BY DAY 6 (12Z FRI) ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223629 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:16 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
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EC has stepped up to freezing rain warnings for parts of the region in advance of the low ejecting northward against the sagging arctic high.

12z ECMWF brings another system out of the south and into Eastern Canada for the end of the month into the beginning of April, then another on a similar trajectory near the 4th. The OP runs have been on the active side recently - wet / white and various shades of the kitchen sink between them.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223628 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 02:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


12z NAEFS temp probabilities, days 8-14:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223627 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 18,292
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From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


12z GEFS 500mb height anomalies / 2m temp anomalies.

Hour 240 - Day 10:

Attached Image


Hour 300 - Day 12.5:

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Hour 360 - Day 15:

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  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223626 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
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From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784


QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 25 2017, 01:14 PM) *
Our snowiest winter's on record can't touch any of those seasons regardless of what station's data at you look at around the GTA. It's a different world up there really.


We play a mean game of cold too, even with some seriously tough competitors across the country.

Hard to beat Winnipeg when it can pull off colder conditions than Mars if anyone remembers that one from 13-14 biggrin.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223625 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 12:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Mar 25 2017, 12:43 PM) *
I've never heard of that "west coast expression" before. I wonder who invented it.


Presumably EC right in that article but it's not so much a west coast expression as it is a 'wet coast' one - Dave Philips likely in on this one wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223623 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:29 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Ottawa
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QUOTE(newfiebrit @ Mar 25 2017, 12:15 PM) *
Not sure what our top 10 snowiest winters would be though I would love to see that list.


I have to say I'm now quite tempted to run a top 10 for all of the stations on my list but it would seem way too time-consuming even for me.

That aforementioned CBC graph just didn't sit right with me to the point that it drove me to do further research because there was no way they were going by the airport records based on the gap between 07-08 and 12-13 being so amazingly large, as well as factoring in the seasonal average vs the number of years in the dataset.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223621 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

bigmt
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:03 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 18,292
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
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QUOTE(snowgeek93 @ Mar 25 2017, 11:48 AM) *
2008 was an awesome year for weather here. Record breaking snowfall in the winter followed by record breaking rainfall in the summer with tons of T-Storms and plenty of sunshine to boot. Fall was great as well and it lead into yet another record breaking winter for snowfall tongue.gif

About as good as it gets here.


A summer worthy of a complaint thread maybe, depending on your preferences laugh.gif

https://ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?...mp;n=7122944B-1

QUOTE
At times this summer Canadians from Ontario to Newfoundland were not just complaining about the amount of rain or its intensity but that that it rained almost every day! Easterners even borrowed a "wet coast" expression, "If it isn't rainin', it's lookin' like rain." At times, the rainfall was sporadic and localized but always nearby, creating the impression it was a record wet summer. In Toronto it really was record wet; Sherbrooke was even wetter; and in deluged Quebec City the 400th anniversary celebrations were marred by close to 500 mm of rain – the second rainiest summer in 65 years.

Toronto Pearson International Airport eclipsed its rainiest summer mark with more than three weeks left to the season. The total rainfall of 396.2 mm shattered the former high water mark by more than 60 mm, and was three and a half times greater than the total rainfall of last summer. But it wasn't just Torontonians cursing the wet summer. Sarnia, Ontario did not have a single dry day in July. And Hamilton had the dubious honour of being the sound and light capital of Canada in 2008, with thunderstorms on 28 days and for 77 hours – well above the average of 16 days and 23 hours.

Residents and visitors to Montreal and Ottawa also voiced disgust over the soggy summer. Yet, rainfall totals between June and August in both cities were below normal by about 5 per cent. It was the classic water torture test…drip, drip, drip. Ottawa tied its previous record for the most number of days with rain or traces of rain for June and July.

Maritimers complaints came a little later in the season. Halifax got more rain in the first week of August than in June and July combined, and its June-to-September rainfall total (563.1 mm) beat last year's total by 11 mm – a close second to the all-time record of 571.3 mm in 1977. With nearly three times its usual August rainfall, Charlottetown, P.E.I. had the wettest month in its history with 240.2 mm. At 252.6 mm, Sydney, Nova Scotia was even wetter. August was the city's wettest month of summer ever and rainfall was three times the monthly average. The situation worsened in September with the passage of tropical storms Hanna and Kyle. For most of the Maritimes, it was the tale of two summers: sunny and warm through the first half, then grey skies and relentless rains in the last half.
  Forum: Current Weather - Canada · Post Preview: #2223615 · Replies: · Views: 21,226

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