Green Chrismas ? Options

[let_it_snow_more]

[Regg]

If there's something, it'll all be decided between dec. 20 to 24th.

Before it's rain (or no snow). So it's not a certainty, but it's getting quite close to it - sadly.

[JJ Snowlover]

That's right, we have 2 chances. Dec. 19 -20th and Dec.24th that are on the models now. The storm coming this week on the 14th - 15th seems to be a rain event (although E.Ont has a chance for it to start as snow)

According to TWN, Toronto has a 37% this year, and Montreal has a 68%, my area is not listed, so I'll go with 68% for Ottawa.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/stor...page_topstories

BTW - love that you're sticking with the snowmageden dreams

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Dec 11 2011, 09:45 PM

[Cre47]

That's right, we have 2 chances. Dec. 19 -20th and Dec.24th that are on the models now. The storm coming this week on the 14th - 15th seems to be a rain event (although E.Ont has a chance for it to start as snow)

According to TWN, Toronto has a 37% this year, and Montreal has a 68%, my area is not listed, so I'll go with 68% for Ottawa.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/stor...page_topstories

BTW - love that you're sticking with the snowmageden dreams

They are mentioning 79% on the EC site on the chances now column based on the 1991-2009 trend. But for this year I want numbers based on the forecast models for the next two weeks, not on some 20, 50 or 100-year average. So far, no media or weather agency has done it.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....mp;n=642F4B39-1

I know there is an article on Accuweather suggesting several storms starting on the 17 or 18th or so. Looking the 14-day trend of the Weather Network, I'm given no more then a 25% chance for now. I will check the models though.

This post has been edited by Cre47: Dec 12 2011, 12:51 PM

[Cre47]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...a-white-1/58820

They list us as probable which in NFL standards is 75% chance or more.

[Regg]

They are mentioning 79% on the EC site on the chances now column based on the 1991-2009 trend. But for this year I want numbers based on the forecast models for the next two weeks, not on some 20, 50 or 100-year average. So far, no media or weather agency has done it.

http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....mp;n=642F4B39-1

I know there is an article on Accuweather suggesting several storms starting on the 17 or 18th or so. Looking the 14-day trend of the Weather Network, I'm given no more then a 25% chance for now. I will check the models though.

That list is very interesting... Almost all of the cities have less chance now than before to get a ''White Christmas''. Not only the average is lower, the snow accumulation is going down and for some it's more than 50% less snow on average now. When all can be played on 1 or 2c degrees, that's all it takes to turn a snowy region into a brown (or even green) winter.

[let_it_snow_more]

That list is very interesting... Almost all of the cities have less chance now than before to get a ''White Christmas''. Not only the average is lower, the snow accumulation is going down and for some it's more than 50% less snow on average now. When all can be played on 1 or 2c degrees, that's all it takes to turn a snowy region into a brown (or even green) winter.

I would love to have snow for christmas, but i guess on the positive side no travel worries.....

It would be great to be snowed in for christmas though

[JJ Snowlover]

old' Davey Philips has his doubt for Ottawa's white christmas.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/touch+wh...3325/story.html

The 19th - 20th storm is our only hope. Common, just 2 cms please

[Bsim71]

Perhaps EC, Accuweather and the like should run some diagnostics on their satellites and computer models to make sure they're working properly. I'm beginning to think there is actually an El Nino going out there in the Pacific. lol.

This post has been edited by Bsim71: Dec 14 2011, 11:41 AM

[JJ Snowlover]

Perhaps EC, Accuweather and the like should run some diagnostics on their satellites and computer models to make sure they're working properly. I'm beginning to think there is actually an El Nino going out there in the Pacific. lol.

The media grabbed a hold of the El Nino, La Nina thing in the 90's (espicailly after the Ice Storm 98) and now blame everything on it, when really El nino and La Nina is just a small piece of the puzzle.

They can either mean something on the weather pattern or hardly nothing. Right now we have the lacking of blocking and a postitve AO & NAO to thank for all our warm whether (maybe a little Nina thrown in) as explained in the Winter 11 - 12 thread.

You are right, it certainly feels like an El nino winter

[Cre47]

Accuweather seems to have us on the direct path of the Dec 19th to 21th storm being in the area where the greatest potential for accumulating snow. EC only has us at 60% chance of snow for both Monday and Tuesday.

Considering also the talk of a storm further south on the 24th, any snow from the backside of tommorrow's snow (if any), the clippers and the 19th to 21th storm will most likely stay.

Still, considering the uncertainty, I'm given only a 50% chance of a white Christmas now which is better then my 25% chance based on TWN's long-range forecast of a couple of days ago. They are hinting at a bit of snow on Monday night.

[Cre47]

Of note, Sudbury had no green Christmas in its history so far as far as I know (it's listed as 100% probability of a white Christmas). As of the 14th there was only a trace of snow on the ground in Sudbury. North Bay also barely has any snow on the ground before this rain event.

According to EC for Sudbury, the only snow in the forecast for the next 7 days is a 40% on Wednesday. According to TWN, if the tendancy continues, it will be a Green Christmas in Sudbury. There is snow predicted for North Bay on Sunday based on EC forecast, but probably nothing much. According to TWN's forecast, North Bay will probably also have a green christmas.

So will Sudbury and North Bay get their first Green Christmas ever?

This post has been edited by Cre47: Dec 15 2011, 08:19 PM

[JJ Snowlover]

Of note, Sudbury had no green Christmas in its history so far as far as I know (it's listed as 100% probability of a white Christmas). As of the 14th there was only a trace of snow on the ground in Sudbury. North Bay also barely has any snow on the ground before this rain event.

According to EC for Sudbury, the only snow in the forecast for the next 7 days is a 40% on Wednesday. According to TWN, if the tendancy continues, it will be a Green Christmas in Sudbury. There is snow predicted for North Bay on Sunday based on EC forecast, but probably nothing much. According to TWN's forecast, North Bay will probably also have a green christmas.

So will Sudbury and North Bay get their first Green Christmas ever?

Wow that is pretty rare for their neck of the woods. Looks like Timmins still get's their 100% chance of a white Christmas.

This is an interesting article from Jessie at AccuWeather, maybe climate change has something to do with this?
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...ristmases/58991

For Ottawa, our 2 agencies keep teasing us with snow next week:

EC keeps us with rain on Monday and not much more then flurries for Wednesday

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/...8_metric_e.html

TWN looks better with 5 - 10cm for Wednesday, but if you look at the 14 day, it trys to wash it away with rain on Dec.23

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/c...12?ref=homecity

I like TWN's version better, guess we have to wait and see...

[tml78]

yeah so it's really starting to look like the GTA will have a green Christmas.
Most if not all of the weather agencys & TV stations are calling for above freezing temps the next 7 days

I'm sure the forcast will change again but I'm not sure if it will be enough to have that storm on wed/thursday to fall as snow.

[Regg]

The GFS 18z is now showing up to 20-23cm of snow for most of the south western part of Quebec (the area where currently there's no snow on the ground). That would be in two shots of 10cm, the first being on the 21st, and the rest on the 24th - but it might continue on the 25th to add on that total.

Call it, just in time delivery


EDIT (the day after):
Forget about the message above, GFS is back to about nothing with everything being pushed south (far away). At best (maybe/perhaps/might/if) a 5 cm on the 23/24. WTF with this winter...

This post has been edited by Regg: Dec 17 2011, 09:32 AM

[Regg]

Here's today's picture from space of the Ottawa and St-Lawrence valley. About no snow everywhere beside on the north shore. And even on that part we have to go quite far to get snow.

Quite noticable, no ice on the lakes (even the small ones).

Jpeg (6m - takes long to load)

[ottawasnowstorm]

As hard as it is for me to say this, I kinda want a green christmas this year and to break the record for december for the least snow ever. I mean, we've gone this far.......

[Regg]

An updated view of the same region without the clouds. Some dusting of snow on the south shore of Montreal - barely a trace just to turn it to white on the images.

JPEG (large 6m) - St-Lawrence valley snow condition (or lack of)

[an uncanny otter]

A Green Christmas seems like a certainty for my area. There would have to be some seriously significant changes in the next couple of days for snow to be on the ground by the 25th.

[cm023]

There's enough on the ground here after last night to make everything white, but I'm afraid tomorrow that will come to an end and we will be back to square one.