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> Nov 10-11, 2017, MidAtl/NE Storm/Cold front, Short Range [0-3 Days Out] forecasts and discos
MaineJay
post Nov 5 2017, 06:06 AM
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Okay, I wanted to keep things tidy. Not start any bad habits.

ECMWF


Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php


Last 7 GFS runs, everything is shifting. Notably, the northern stream looks far more progressive, and the southern feature looks like it might want to play. It's pretty close on the 5.06z.

Attached Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0


UKie, is like, um, no. Maybe next time?


Attached Image

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=144


CMC also a whiff


Attached Image



With tectonic shifts in the northern stream, hard to rule out any possibilities here. My opinion.


Real nice disco from Rubin-Oster.
QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 AM EST SUN NOV 05 2017

VALID 12Z WED NOV 08 2017 - 12Z SUN NOV 12 2017

...PATTERN OVERVIEW/GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT/PREFERENCES...

A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS NOTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH A FEW PRIMARY
FEATURES TO NOTE. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
..A STRETCHED OUT STRIP OF
VORTICITY SLIDING THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD REACHING THE MID-SOUTH BY THE FOLLOWING
MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SOME WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EXITING WAVY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE MAY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. LOOKING BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST...A POWERFUL UPPER
LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH FORECAST 500-MB
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 TO POSSIBLY 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE VIA THE 00Z GFS. THIS CLOSED CIRCULATION
SHOULD REACH THE NORTHERN CA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY WHILE GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE
THEREAFTER. A LIKELY PROGRESSIVE STACK OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY
NEXT WEEKEND. LASTLY...AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL
POTENTIALLY DRAW A SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO SECTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. MODELS EXHIBIT
EXTREME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS FEATURE
WHICH WILL BE NOTED IN THE
FOLLOWING SECTION. LASTLY...AMPLIFIED FLOW RETURNS TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.


REGARDING THE INITIAL STRUNG OUT SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARD THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY...MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE WAVE. THIS WOULD INDUCE A MODEST REGION
OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD DEEPEN WHILE MOVING
OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHIFTING FOCUS TO THE WEST
COAST...MULTI-MODEL CYCLE TRENDS SHOW AN EASTWARD JOG WITH THE
POSITION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE
LARGEST DIFFERENCES ARE WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WITH MANY OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
FAVORING A HIGHER DEGREE OF AMPLITUDE. AS THE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES ITS MARCH TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY...THE SURFACE PATTERN BECOMES COMPLICATED BY EFFECTS FROM
THE AMPLIFICATION IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. WITH THE PAST FEW RUNS
OF THE ECMWF SHOWING MUCH GREATER SOUTHWARD ELONGATION OF THIS
TROUGH...A ROBUST SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES WOULD BE
AROUND 1036-MB ON 10/1200Z BASED ON THESE ECMWF RUNS.
MEANWHILE...THE 00Z/18Z/12Z GFS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE CYCLONE IN
THIS EXACT POSITION WHICH LEADS TO QUITE A FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE
00Z GFS FROM YESTERDAY WAS THE LAST RUN IN ITS SUITE WHICH
DEPICTED THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION SHOWN BY THE ECMWF. UNTIL THE
00Z CMC ARRIVED LOOKING MORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF...THE CMC/UKMET
HAD NOT OFFERED MUCH RECENT SUPPORT FOR THIS AMPLIFIED SCENARIO.
COMPARISON OF MULTI-DAY ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI PLOTS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE CMC/GEFS HAVE BEEN
WAFFLING AROUND ALL OVER THE PLACE. SUFFICE TO SAY...A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST IS AT HAND HERE. FINALLY...ALL GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A RETURN OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC BY NEXT WEEKEND....A GENERAL REPEAT OF WHAT IS IN PLACE ON
DAY 3/WEDNESDAY.


GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...DECIDED TO LEAN MORE TOWARD ITS SOLUTION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AMONG THE GFS CYCLES...FAVORED THE PREVIOUS
00Z RUN AS IT HAD THE MOST IN COMMON WITH THE ECMWF WHILE ALSO
STAYING SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO CONTINUITY. GENERALLY TOOK AN EVEN
SPLIT OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHILE QUICKLY
INCORPORATING A MORE ENSEMBLE BASED APPROACH AFTER FRIDAY. DID
THROW A TOKEN AMOUNT OF THE 18Z GFS IN THE MIX TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY
SHIFT TOWARD A MORE DE-AMPLIFIED SCENARIO.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER/THREATS...

EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS WELL AS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION...MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE
ENTRENCHED IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
OF COURSE THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MODEL CHOICE WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF DIVERGING BY ALMOST 30 DEGREES BY DAY 5/FRIDAY
. GIVEN A
COLD SOLUTION WAS FAVORED...EXPECTED DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL WILL
BE AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. THE COLD SPOT
SHOULD BE FROM NORTHEASTERN MONTANA THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE SINGLE
DIGITS UNTIL FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR DAILY
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN.

THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE
CAROLINAS WILL BE AN INITIAL FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
ALL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVED TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ACROSS THE WEST
COAST...HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIED THE APPROACHING CLOSED LOW
WILL IMPACT NORTHERN CA UP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THE
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TOWARD THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR TO ALLOW SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
INCLUDING THE CASCADES...BITTERROOTS...SAWTOOTH...AND TETONS.
FARTHER DOWNSTREAM...SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNKNOWN HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN
THERE WILL BE. AND ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE MEAGER...SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE POSSIBLE

ACCOMPANYING THE POTENTIAL ARCTIC INTRUSION.


RUBIN-OSTER

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

GYX

QUOTE
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall 500 mb hemispheric pattern in the models looks fairly
similar to previous runs, with large scale troughing over
central providing mostly zonal flow to the nrn tier of CONUS.
Initially will see more of a SW flow, which will eventually
translate to a cyclonic tendency later in the forecast period.
Still looking at temps running normal, but skewing slightly cool
thru most of the week, with a possible brief shot of December
air Fri-Sat.

Digging trough extending equatorward from deeper closed low near
Hudson will swing SE across the CWA Fri into Sat. This could
produce some rain or snow showers in the mtns and foothills Thu
night into Fri and a shot of below normal air moving in Fri-Sat.
00Z Euro backing off a bit on the cold, but still look for below
normal temps with highs FR-Sat in the upper 30s to mid 40s and
lows Fri night in the 20s, and maybe some teens in the mtns. The
cold air will be quick to leave with temps climbing back to
near normal on Sunday.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Nov 9 2017, 04:23 AM


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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Undertakerson
post Nov 5 2017, 07:15 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Nov 5 2017, 07:06 AM) *
Okay, I wanted to keep things tidy. Not start any bad habits.

ECMWF


Attached Image

http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
Last 7 GFS runs, everything is shifting. Notably, the northern stream looks far more progressive, and the southern feature looks like it might want to play. It's pretty close on the 5.06z.

Attached Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...os=0&ypos=0
UKie, is like, um, no. Maybe next time?


Attached Image

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=144
CMC also a whiff


Attached Image

With tectonic shifts in the northern stream, hard to rule out any possibilities here. My opinion.
Real nice disco from Rubin-Oster.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd

GYX
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


Top notch kick off post, MJ. So much to talk about but I'll try to keep it brief.

If followers were to go to the Long Range Organic Forecasting Threads, they will note the discussion that Clapper, Cliché, JDR, among a few others perhaps, have had relative to this time period

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...p;#entry2251426

This thread's date is the erstwhile "first" of two threads I (only half jokingly) referred to when I said I would "bite" on JDR's bait of the BSR. Easy to understand, given my post on 10/23:

Attached Image


Followed by a post I made three days later, when the GFS LR came into frame.

Attached Image


In re - the model camp slit (in timing and latitude, IMO) is, to me, very expected. In the Autumn thread I chimed in about the N PAC block (I see it as a Rex Block - but that is secondary to this discussion) and how "jittery" I am when those synoptic features encamp within the flow regime.

Attached Image


Despite my trepidation, expressed in my thoughts about upstream blocking, I believe I'm going to "buy" this scenario as a decent storm with a decidedly "slushy" side for many, rain for most of the coastal plane, and decent accumulation inland at elevation.
Whiff scenarios, in some recent guidance, ( i.e. - too far east with the southern stream) are likely exhibiting their usual pattern of alternating between "hit or miss", ultimately showing "slowing" as we draw nearer the actual dates.

Among the models I am leaning towards, the 12z Euro of yesterday really caught my eye (and if I had not been so busy, I would have opened the thread at that time) - due to it's depiction of the northern and southern stream (H5 aspect) being so close to the BSR configuration (see fig 1 this post, for comparative purposes)



Attached Image

Attached Image


As I said, from the start....watching.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Nov 5 2017, 08:40 AM
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Undertakerson
post Nov 5 2017, 08:30 AM
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There is modest support found among the various GFS based ensembles - but nothing solid. A testament to how tenuous this is in the modeling world.

Attached Image
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MaineJay
post Nov 5 2017, 12:42 PM
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UKie drops a bomb. 1010MB+ down to 985mb in 24 hours. This is certainly not the final solution, not surprising the UKie would eventual phase one of these northern stream pieces. Fun to see these kinds of scenarios modeled though. smile.gif

Attached Image


http://wx.graphics/models/ukmet/ukmet.php


--------------------
Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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PoconoSnow
post Nov 5 2017, 02:39 PM
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Cmc is still eating boogies

Should this be the 13th. I don't think there should be three threads


--------------------
“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
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PoconoSnow
post Nov 5 2017, 02:47 PM
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Euro phases this a tad late but still gets there



Navgem corralary tells us this might slow down some as we approach, compare hrs below with all other majors




Appears there may be a dance on the 13th without little Japanese snowmen.

Must still be in hibernation

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 5 2017, 03:34 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Nov 5 2017, 02:52 PM
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A few late closed lows showing up in a nice cluster for NNE



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Nov 5 2017, 02:53 PM


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jdrenken
post Nov 5 2017, 05:07 PM
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Purely coincidental! wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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SnowMan11
post Nov 5 2017, 06:31 PM
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Upton has a possible mix even for the coast on sunday

"Sunday another shortwave with more energy is expected to pass through the area Sunday and Sunday night. With the cold airmass retreating and modifying Sunday precipitation could potentially begin as snow and/or rain inland with a mix possibly even down to the coast early Sunday."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


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BLIZZARD_OF_79
post Nov 5 2017, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Nov 5 2017, 06:31 PM) *
Upton has a possible mix even for the coast on sunday

"Sunday another shortwave with more energy is expected to pass through the area Sunday and Sunday night. With the cold airmass retreating and modifying Sunday precipitation could potentially begin as snow and/or rain inland with a mix possibly even down to the coast early Sunday."

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

I don't really trust any models predicting Wintry precipitation in early November be a use I think models have a hard time handling the season change, but it's still nice to see smile.gif


--------------------
Garry
]skywarn spotter, NWS.
sparrows point , md. 21219

Winter 2017-18 snow totals imby
0.0




last 7 previous winter snow totals...
09-10....79.5inches
10-11....21.7inches
11-12....2.5inches
12-13....11.3inches
13-14....44.1inches
14-15....28.25inches
15-16....32.50 inches
16-17....2.75 inches
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jdrenken
post Nov 6 2017, 02:35 AM
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I had deja-vu when I saw the euro depiction of a storm moving just south of i70 from the Foothills of the Rockies to the coast between 144-216 hours and scooting off quickly to the ne.


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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MaineJay
post Nov 6 2017, 04:41 AM
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With Pacific flow like this, and the potential for Arctic/polar energy to interact, how could the models be confused?

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480


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MaineJay
post Nov 6 2017, 04:54 AM
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Last 9 GFS runs. The interaction between the closed Pac NW low and arctic energy plays a significant role here, certainly affects wave spacing. You can see less interaction results in a better "dig". The Arctic energy looks likes it's a little more feisty with each run.

Attached Image
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...s=0&ypos=76


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EstorilM
post Nov 6 2017, 02:14 PM
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Wouldn't this almost certainly be an entirely NE type event? Doesn't seem to strengthen much on any models till way up there - at least as far as MidAtl is concerned. wink.gif

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Undertakerson
post Nov 6 2017, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Nov 6 2017, 03:14 PM) *
Wouldn't this almost certainly be an entirely NE type event? Doesn't seem to strengthen much on any models till way up there - at least as far as MidAtl is concerned. wink.gif

I can't imagine a scenario where only New England would get a storm, and the mid Atl be storm free.

Even if it's weak, it's still a storm down here.
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psu1313
post Nov 6 2017, 04:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 6 2017, 04:53 PM) *
I can't imagine a scenario where only New England would get a storm, and the mid Atl be storm free.

Even if it's weak, it's still a storm down here.


It's just more rain and less wind for the Mid-Atlantic. Is it too early to talk about getting the dry slot? laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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risingriver
post Nov 6 2017, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 6 2017, 04:53 PM) *
I can't imagine a scenario where only New England would get a storm, and the mid Atl be storm free.

Even if it's weak, it's still a storm down here.



Nah, happens all the time that NE gets different weather than Virginia. A coastal might give us down here just clouds and some breeze, but bomb further north and throw them snow and wind. Jose was the last system of note to do so. Much more impactful in Massachusetts than in Virginia.

Not sure what this setup will do, but it looks like impacts would be more, well, impactful, further north than MD/DC/NOVA - the center of the universe.

Only once in my life has it snowed significantly in Virginia before Thanksgiving. Nov. 1987 in CHarlottesville. We got a surprise 4-6 inch storm. I've seen more Easter snow than Turkey snow. rolleyes.gif

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plowxpress
post Nov 6 2017, 04:45 PM
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RC I see you there ph34r.gif

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Undertakerson
post Nov 6 2017, 04:51 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Nov 6 2017, 05:19 PM) *
Nah, happens all the time that NE gets different weather than Virginia. A coastal might give us down here just clouds and some breeze, but bomb further north and throw them snow and wind. Jose was the last system of note to do so. Much more impactful in Massachusetts than in Virginia.

Not sure what this setup will do, but it looks like impacts would be more, well, impactful, further north than MD/DC/NOVA - the center of the universe.

Only once in my life has it snowed significantly in Virginia before Thanksgiving. Nov. 1987 in CHarlottesville. We got a surprise 4-6 inch storm. I've seen more Easter snow than Turkey snow. rolleyes.gif

Yeah - I was just as vague with my answer.

My point (intended) was that there is a northern and southern energy situation, and it's unlikely that ONLY NE would get a storm out of such a set up. Maybe that is what Estori was saying all along.

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Ahoff
post Nov 6 2017, 06:07 PM
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So is there no good chance of anything for SW PA now? It seemed there was at least a chance of rain and in the best case a couple inches of snow, now are we just left out of everything again?

This post has been edited by Ahoff: Nov 7 2017, 08:28 AM
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