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> Arctic Sea Ice, What will happen this summer?
so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 3 2013, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 2 2013, 11:44 PM) *


Very thin!! If it gets rolling then it will free fall. Extent is good but the volume is very, very shaky.

This will continue to lead to big melt seasons. It will take several very low melt years to make any recovery at all in volume. It would take 100 yrs of very cold weather to get a 1/3 of the volume back that has been lost the last 30yrs.


Im really curious to see what happens though. Yes the ice is thin versus the last 30 years it will not recover within a year or two you will have to wait of course, but using that website we are seeing a much greater ice volume in areas that last year were virtually none existent like in regions of canada/alaska and areas of siberia or russia the ice overall is doing well with us less than 1 SD from average. It will take time for it to recover but signs have been pointing toward a recovery process starting.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Temperatures north of 80N have been below average for the past 3 weeks I wonder if we may not go above 273K but this is too premature for us to know. One thing I did notice is the amount of thick ice has decreased overall in the main ice sheet. If we manage to not destroy that much ice this year as past years with storms I believe many will be surprised by the increase in ice volume we are experiencing.

I dont know what there was but towards the end as we get closer to the actual date it almost looks like a storm crosses near the pole.


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grace
post Jun 3 2013, 11:49 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 3 2013, 10:15 PM) *
Im really curious to see what happens though. Yes the ice is thin versus the last 30 years it will not recover within a year or two you will have to wait of course, but using that website we are seeing a much greater ice volume in areas that last year were virtually none existent like in regions of canada/alaska and areas of siberia or russia the ice overall is doing well with us less than 1 SD from average. It will take time for it to recover but signs have been pointing toward a recovery process starting.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Temperatures north of 80N have been below average for the past 3 weeks I wonder if we may not go above 273K but this is too premature for us to know. One thing I did notice is the amount of thick ice has decreased overall in the main ice sheet. If we manage to not destroy that much ice this year as past years with storms I believe many will be surprised by the increase in ice volume we are experiencing.

I dont know what there was but towards the end as we get closer to the actual date it almost looks like a storm crosses near the pole.


I agree bro but it's just going to take a long time....I think.
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The Snowman
post Jun 4 2013, 10:55 AM
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Haven't been looking into this thread much, but this is the ensemble forecast for sea ice coverage as of 6/3.
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Attached File  latest_sea_ice_forecast.png ( 13.35K ) Number of downloads: 4
 


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 5 2013, 02:24 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 4 2013, 12:49 AM) *
I agree bro but it's just going to take a long time....I think.


Yea time will tell

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jun 4 2013, 11:55 AM) *
Haven't been looking into this thread much, but this is the ensemble forecast for sea ice coverage as of 6/3.


Well is that starting from just yesterday cause as far as i know the average for 6/3 cause according to this site we are looking at an average of around 10.792 million sq. km where our daily total is sitting at around 10.498 million sq. km.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

It will be interesting to see as it shows quite the decline near the bottom.


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telejunkie
post Jun 5 2013, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 5 2013, 03:24 AM) *
It will be interesting to see as it shows quite the decline near the bottom.


Considering that only the coverage depicted in the yellow-greens and darker while be the ice most likely to survive the summer thaw, it's not too surprising to see that type of decline depicted.


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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NorEaster07
post Jun 7 2013, 03:27 PM
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Russians drive from Russia to Canada over North Pole, in a bus.

Ice must be thick enough.

http://phys.org/news/2013-05-russians-russ...north-pole.html

http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/cold-hard-news/

http://iceagenow.info/2013/06/russians-cro...sia-canada-bus/
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 18 2013, 12:06 PM
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Little update:

Temperatures from 80N to the pole

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

rather below average still

Have had some rather big losses in ice over the past week and a half almost on schedule to the other seasons. Above last year and 2007 but may not be quite the 2009 thought. Have to keep an eye on this area.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...cent.arctic.png


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NorEaster07
post Jun 19 2013, 08:05 PM
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http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Mid June Arctic Ice most since 2005. Continues to ride the most line rather than the least.

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bingobobbo
post Jun 19 2013, 11:09 PM
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I was at a discussion on climate change, and last summer, 97 percent of greenland was ice-free (I believe it was late July).

BTW, I don't mean to be a nitpicker, but every time this thread comes up, so does the spelling error.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 20 2013, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Jun 20 2013, 12:09 AM) *
I was at a discussion on climate change, and last summer, 97 percent of greenland was ice-free (I believe it was late July).

BTW, I don't mean to be a nitpicker, but every time this thread comes up, so does the spelling error.


Sorry i thought i had sent it to one of the moderator as I do not remember how to change it myself, but i guess it never went through. I will send something either today or tomorrow about it.

Im not sure that first statement is true greenland still had much of its north and NW side still covered with ice. The southern edge has been ice free for years now and has not sustained ice growth for quite a while.


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NorEaster07
post Jun 21 2013, 05:07 AM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 20 2013, 03:07 PM) *
Sorry i thought i had sent it to one of the moderator as I do not remember how to change it myself, but i guess it never went through. I will send something either today or tomorrow about it.


Simple. Go to the first post, hit Edit, full edit, fix the spelling, scroll down to submit modified post. Done
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grace
post Jun 24 2013, 08:29 AM
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We now have a two year trend of higher extent. Not sure what it means but we could be in a baby step leveling off or recovery. With that said, with old thick ice scarce July & August will continue to open up a lot of water & probably approach minimums challenging records...but it's interesting nonetheless of the high extent.

Looks like this year we are in "one of" the longest stretches of below normal temps in the Arctic for this time of year according to DMI that I can find dating back to 1958 when their records begin. Looks like about 50 straight days of below average temps in Arctic. Impressive!!

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

EDIT: by recovery I'm not stupid enough to mean a return of Ice Age ice levels...just a possible slow, baby step rise of larger extent staying longer through the year. We'll wait & see.

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kpk33x
post Jun 24 2013, 09:40 AM
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I think the wording of the article about Greenland was misleading. I think it was 90% of the surface experienced some melting, but it did not mean that 90% of the ice sheet had melted completely. "Some melting" could mean that the temperature reached 1C for 2 hours one day.

Time will tell this summer regarding the nadir of the current melt season. Different wind patterns, slightly cooler waters...both could quite quickly turn around a lower valley trend. Temps are VERY marginal that far north at best, a degree or two swing either way gives us 2012 minimums or a flatline melt season with thicker ice next year. Remember much of what caused the 2012 huge melt was an unusual fierce storm that stirred the pot last August.

We do have a weaker sun and ocean currents entering cold phases. If anything, the trend should head up overall though it might take a couple years.


--------------------
Summer 2017 - Intervale, NH

# of 90 degree days:
May - 3 (through 5/22)

Season TD - 2

# of thunderstorm days: 2
Severe events/description:
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grace
post Jun 24 2013, 11:05 AM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Jun 24 2013, 09:40 AM) *
I think the wording of the article about Greenland was misleading. I think it was 90% of the surface experienced some melting, but it did not mean that 90% of the ice sheet had melted completely. "Some melting" could mean that the temperature reached 1C for 2 hours one day.

Time will tell this summer regarding the nadir of the current melt season. Different wind patterns, slightly cooler waters...both could quite quickly turn around a lower valley trend. Temps are VERY marginal that far north at best, a degree or two swing either way gives us 2012 minimums or a flatline melt season with thicker ice next year. Remember much of what caused the 2012 huge melt was an unusual fierce storm that stirred the pot last August.

We do have a weaker sun and ocean currents entering cold phases. If anything, the trend should head up overall though it might take a couple years.


You are correct about Greenland. I thought he meant 97% of the sea around Greenland was ice free, which is believable during melt seasons & not that alarming. If he meant 97% of Greeenland "ice sheet" was gone that's bogus...satellite. Now if he meant 97% of ice sheet experienced "some" melting then I could buy that...summer -NAO...big high over Greenland last summer
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 24 2013, 01:09 PM
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There is still 50-75% of the hudson bay covered in ice still pretty impressive at this time last year much of the arctic region was rather low in ice extent. Will be interesting to see what happens in the next month since this will be the main melt time before reaching a minimum late august and early september.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jun 24 2013, 09:14 PM
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To add to the cold weather being associated with areas 80N

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

We actually went down yesterday into today barely sitting right at freezing. nice to see this with virtually little melt going on in this region. One thing we will have to watch for is a possible storm ruining the ice sheet as we saw last year around mid july.

Last time we saw extended cold weather in this region was in 09 during this time of the year we had temp right at freezing for 20 days or so.

We should see how well the ice does over the next month as this is the critical time before it reaches the minimum


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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jun 26 2013, 05:35 PM
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Meh....my prediction is 4.5 millions of square kilometers. This should come as no surprise. The current trend in the northern hemisphere for sea surface temps and land surface temps has been declining for the last 10 years. We are in a transition phase of warmer temps from the high solar activity from the 90's back to cooler temps due to lower solar activity.

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jun 26 2013, 05:51 PM
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grace
post Jul 4 2013, 02:32 PM
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It's looking shaky. I'm thinking we may have a tank before refreeze.
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grace
post Jul 5 2013, 02:52 PM
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The plunge...



I'm not sure where it will end up but even with colder arctic temperatures as soon as it gets around freezing & a little above with sunshine....that thin ice is going to melt. With not as much to melt to expose the water the extent plunges like it is now.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 6 2013, 02:27 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jul 5 2013, 03:52 PM) *
The plunge...



I'm not sure where it will end up but even with colder arctic temperatures as soon as it gets around freezing & a little above with sunshine....that thin ice is going to melt. With not as much to melt to expose the water the extent plunges like it is now.


not sure but i see a completely different look to the decline than observed through that chart.

not sure why there are discrepancies

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/ar...nteractive.html

I know yours only shows till 2005 but the difference between the two is night and day. Not sure what but something is either skewed with map im using or you are using but somewhere there is misinformation being thrown out. I have seen recently that yes we have had a rather continuous decline but we have not pushed under 1 S.D. from the mean average for a good bit. Something just seems fishy.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IM...cent.arctic.png



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