Arctic Sea Ice, What will happen this summer? Options

[so_whats_happeni...]

Just an update:

Amazing how one year can make a difference.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=12&sy=2012

Left side July 12, 2013 right side july 12, 2012

That is quite the difference and by this time last year their was a storm up there and by the end of the month the area near siberia was all but gone and the area of ice across northern canada and alaska region was all but non existent. This year may be the first year in awhile the NW passage may not fully open.

Temps still below average but still slightly above freezing lets see when we start to see our turn down to cooler temps across the area.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Just an update:

Amazing how one year can make a difference.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=12&sy=2012

Left side July 12, 2013 right side july 12, 2012

That is quite the difference and by this time last year their was a storm up there and by the end of the month the area near siberia was all but gone and the area of ice across northern canada and alaska region was all but non existent. This year may be the first year in awhile the NW passage may not fully open.

Temps still below average but still slightly above freezing lets see when we start to see our turn down to cooler temps across the area.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Temps 80 north and above are forecast to cool by the end of the month.

First image mean surface temp average form July 15th-July 23rd
Second image mean surface temp average from July 23rd-July 31st
(light blue is -5-0)

Should be interesting

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jul 15 2013, 01:40 PM

Attached File(s)

 pic_1.png ( 31.38K ) Number of downloads: 1
 pic_2.jpg ( 66.99K ) Number of downloads: 1

 

[The Snowman]

(I first posted this in the winter thread, it would appear to relate to this topic as well.)

Adding on to the Arctic gist, I reviewed a few years that matched up well with the amount of sea ice we are currently seeing. These years were 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009. I took those four years and created composites for the whole of their winters. Precipitation, temperature and 500mb anomaly charts are posted below.

Attached File(s)

 sea_ice_analog_500mb.png ( 11.89K ) Number of downloads: 1
 sea_ice_analog_temp.png ( 121.98K ) Number of downloads: 1
 Sea_ice_analog_precip.png ( 125.78K ) Number of downloads: 3

 

[so_whats_happeni...]

Temps 80 north and above are forecast to cool by the end of the month.

First image mean surface temp average form July 15th-July 23rd
Second image mean surface temp average from July 23rd-July 31st
(light blue is -5-0)

Should be interesting

Yea it will be might be able to sink below 273K across much of that 80N region which would not favor ice growth at all lol but rather slower melting rates and in some places just not melt. So far this entire summer we have had below average temps, since about the end of april.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

(I first posted this in the winter thread, it would appear to relate to this topic as well.)

Adding on to the Arctic gist, I reviewed a few years that matched up well with the amount of sea ice we are currently seeing. These years were 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009. I took those four years and created composites for the whole of their winters. Precipitation, temperature and 500mb anomaly charts are posted below.

Looks to me as if we have a lot of blocking that may show up too early to tell but would be an interesting year if we manage to come out of this summer with quite the decent ice sheet.

I had said earlier the NW passage and that is the area around Canada while it may very well still open im not sure for how long it will stay open and as far as areas along russia that passage may not break apart for the first time in awhile. We have about a month and a half before we hit our minimum usually occurs the first or second week of september. im curious to see how it all plays out. 2008 and 2009 seem to be the rest representations of the ice in the past few years. Weather patterns seem fairly similar too not many 90's but we would get hit with them in small bursts. Low arctic temps except this year is a step cooler than those years.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

I say we get close to those years as far as ice goes about 3.5 sq. km this year.

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Yea it will be might be able to sink below 273K across much of that 80N region which would not favor ice growth at all lol but rather slower melting rates and in some places just not melt. So far this entire summer we have had below average temps, since about the end of april.

I say we get close to those years as far as ice goes about 3.5 sq. km this year.

During arctic summer warm ocean currents such as the ongoing influx of heat into the Chuckchi Sea via the Bering Strait are the main driving factor in the melt rate. Also wind patterns play a significant role based on the ice being exported through the Fram strait. While air temps do play a role they are certainly not the main driving force. 3.5 sq. km? Even if you meant 3.5 million square kilometers that would still be a record minimum.

Beautfort Sea Ice is fairing rather well this year

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G...fort_Sea_ts.png

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jul 16 2013, 01:54 PM

Attached File(s)

 r01_Beaufort_Sea_ts.png ( 128.41K ) Number of downloads: 0
 screenhunter_138_jul_15_19_46.jpg ( 75.94K ) Number of downloads: 0

 

[so_whats_happeni...]

During arctic summer warm ocean currents such as the ongoing influx of heat into the Chuckchi Sea via the Bering Strait are the main driving factor in the melt rate. Also wind patterns play a significant role based on the ice being exported through the Fram strait. While air temps do play a role they are certainly not the main driving force. 3.5 sq. km? Even if you meant 3.5 million square kilometers that would still be a record minimum.

Beautfort Sea Ice is fairing rather well this year

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G...fort_Sea_ts.png

Oh i know ocean currents and wind patterns are also at play. I was merely pointing one factor in the whole equation that will certainly benefit the sea ice. Yes i did mean 3.5million sq. km and no last year we hit 2.25 million sq. km or there abouts when we bottomed in late august early october. By this time last year we were already hitting 2 SDs below the mean average beginning around 1978-79 and it only got worse from there. Also in 2007 when we saw what originally was the lowest recorded sea ice we were sitting at around 3million sq. km of ice. So to be at 3.5 million sq. km is an increase but to the point where it is not way out of the possibility this year. Many of the areas hit hard last year have definitely shown some good improvements.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/

fairly accurate from what I have seen some of the sites I have seen have been off in past years and in times where we have seen decreases and increases.

Meanwhile in the antarctic we have a surplus surpassing the departure we are currently seeing in the north. I don't fully understand that link between the two but there has to be something that causes the balancing effect.

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Yes i did mean 3.5million sq. km and no last year we hit 2.25 million sq. km or there abouts when we bottomed in late august early october. By this time last year we were already hitting 2 SDs below the mean average beginning around 1978-79 and it only got worse from there. Also in 2007 when we saw what originally was the lowest recorded sea ice we were sitting at around 3million sq. km of ice. So to be at 3.5 million sq. km is an increase but to the point where it is not way out of the possibility this year. Many of the areas hit hard last year have definitely shown some good improvements.

Perhaps you should look again. 3.49 million square kilometers is quite aways from 2.25 million square kilometers. September 16th to be exact was the minimum.

2012 holds the record for the minimum sea ice extent with 2007 coming in second. I took the liberty to highlight the minimum value in 2007 as well which is 4.25 million square kilometers.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jul 18 2013, 08:33 PM

Attached File(s)

 Arctci_Sea_Ice_Extent.png ( 1.77MB ) Number of downloads: 1
 2007.png ( 1.39MB ) Number of downloads: 0

 

[so_whats_happeni...]

Perhaps you should look again. 3.49 million square kilometers is quite aways from 2.25 million square kilometers. September 16th to be exact was the minimum.

2012 holds the record for the minimum sea ice extent with 2007 coming in second. I took the liberty to highlight the minimum value in 2007 as well which is 4.25 million square kilometers.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv

Whether you may be right or i may we will never know. I know your going to sit here and say your data is 100% correct and frankly i really don't care. These are two completely different sources and until the actual numbers are shown is when we will find out. Until we should not hit a minimum as we did last year but more along the lines of 2008/09 do you happen to have the data from then cause i would love see how much more it shows via your data then the data I have shown. Just wondering during its highest period of ice how much of an ice extent was it showing for the northern regions? Just curious

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Whether you may be right or i may we will never know. I know your going to sit here and say your data is 100% correct and frankly i really don't care. These are two completely different sources and until the actual numbers are shown is when we will find out. Until we should not hit a minimum as we did last year but more along the lines of 2008/09 do you happen to have the data from then cause i would love see how much more it shows via your data then the data I have shown. Just wondering during its highest period of ice how much of an ice extent was it showing for the northern regions? Just curious

Do not confuse sea ice area vs sea ice extent. Area and extent are different measurements. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC and everyone else primarily reports sea ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area. All the data is in the link I gave you. For every date it has the values back to the 1980's. So sea ice extent is the accepted method scientist use to measure sea ice values and also the content that is reported in the media.

In other news temps have peaked in the arctic for the summer and the decline to winter has begun. Weather models have the arctic well below normal for the next couple weeks. This should slow down the current ice melt rate. The summer of 2013 may end up as the coldest summer for 80 north and above in the satellite era.

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jul 20 2013, 06:43 AM

Attached File(s)

 decline.png ( 18.9K ) Number of downloads: 1

 

[grace]

Do not confuse sea ice area vs sea ice extent. Area and extent are different measurements. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC and everyone else primarily reports sea ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area. All the data is in the link I gave you. For every date it has the values back to the 1980's. So sea ice extent is the accepted method scientist use to measure sea ice values and also the content that is reported in the media.

In other news temps have peaked in the arctic for the summer and the decline to winter has begun. Weather models have the arctic well below normal for the next couple weeks. This should slow down the current ice melt rate. The summer of 2013 may end up as the coldest summer for 80 north and above in the satellite era.

The only reliable temps in our weather history.

It's pretty amazing...the arctic cold that is; however, I do still worry a significant melt can take place over the next month. Ice thickness is very, very shaky. It would be cool for temps to tank in the arctic over the next month to at least help minimize other factors that fuel ice melts.

This post has been edited by grace: Jul 20 2013, 10:50 PM

[grace]

This doesn't sound good for the ice:

In addition, the water is likely to get worse over the coming week, as an expected Arctic cyclone's strong winds and rain will loosen the ice coverage even further.

http://news.yahoo.com/north-pole-melted-again-221704292.html

If it's as strong as last years another minimum record will be set because the ice is much thinner than it was before last years cyclone. I really hope not.

[NYCSuburbs]

I'm no expert in the whole subject of ice in the north pole, but based on what I'm reading from last year's strong cyclone and this pattern, a 980-990mb cyclone doesn't sound like it will do much good... GFS initialization from 7/24 12z shows a 978mb low north of Alaska:

 GZ_PN_000_0000.gif ( 181.59K ) Number of downloads: 0

[grace]

I'm no expert in the whole subject of ice in the north pole, but based on what I'm reading from last year's strong cyclone and this pattern, a 980-990mb cyclone doesn't sound like it will do much good... GFS initialization from 7/24 12z shows a 978mb low north of Alaska:

 GZ_PN_000_0000.gif ( 181.59K ) Number of downloads: 0

It would destroy the thin ice! Two years in a row that look like baby steps in the right direction only to get slapped in the face.

Amazing that we could set another minimum if cyclone does develop in one of the coldest summers (80N) that we've had going back to 1958. Just convincing that air temps have very little to do with the melting up there....OCEANS.

[so_whats_happeni...]

Been on vacation this past week or so haven't really gotten to look at anything but that would certainly be bad for the sea ice especially into that region as we have greater area being covered their versus last year. So that will have to be watched.

[UFASUPERSTORM]

The storm this year is completely a different scenario then last years. In the set up the 850 temps were 4-12°C below normal over the high arctic. Lets look at how the ice has responded so far during this snowstorm.

This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Jul 26 2013, 09:47 AM

Attached File(s)

 ssmi1_ice_ext_small.png ( 178.98K ) Number of downloads: 3

 

[kpk33x]

The storm this year is completely a different scenario then last years. In the set up the 850 temps were 4-12°C below normal over the high arctic. Lets look at how the ice has responded so far during this snowstorm.

Looks like it went up! Funny how snowstoms'll do that!

[so_whats_happeni...]

I really wish I could link you guys to the forum we have in our meteorology department. There is one person on that forum listing multiple things as to prove anthropogenic warming and why he believes it is detrimental to life as we know it. He also brings up a few things on why he thinks the ice will be gone in a matter of ten years.

On the other side there is this website forum where a is explaining that in the next ten years we may be on track to experiencing a mini ice age starting. He seem rather knowledgable and lists many articles to back up his claims.

http://www.westernusawx.info/forums/index....725&page=40

Take a look through its pretty interesting.

The real interesting part will be whether the warming guy is right or the guy predicting cooling is right. I guess we will find out in the next couple of years. First we have to get through this summer. I have heard some claim that the ice will be close to being completely melted away this year. It is a shame we have only 30-35 years of good factual satellite data to tell us the tale. Anything outside of the past 300-400 years is a mystery even with ice core samples and tree rings it does not always tell the whole truth. Its a shame that this such a small window that we have to go off of to predict our future.

[MaineJay]

It would destroy the thin ice! Two years in a row that look like baby steps in the right direction only to get slapped in the face.

Amazing that we could set another minimum if cyclone does develop in one of the coldest summers (80N) that we've had going back to 1958. Just convincing that air temps have very little to do with the melting up there....OCEANS.

Quite a few warm anomalies around the Arctic circle, and virtually the whole northern hemisphere above the 30° latitude line is warm, save for a few smaller anomalies. Especially of note is the very warm anomaly off Finland and western Siberia.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

Attached File(s)

 sst.daily.anom.gif ( 100.8K ) Number of downloads: 2

 

[grace]

[quote name='MaineJay' post='1754912' date='Jul 26 2013, 02:10 PM']Quite a few warm anomalies around the Arctic circle, and virtually the whole northern hemisphere above the 30° latitude line is warm, save for a few smaller anomalies. Especially of note is the very warm anomaly off Finland and western Siberia.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml[/

What you posted is barely above normal. NAEFS has shown above chances for below normal temps there almost all summer long...which it still is for today's 8-14 day forecast:

http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html

Scroll down to global.

This shows that north of 80 it's been below normal for over 60-70 days straight. I can't find a colder summer dating back to 1958:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

This post has been edited by grace: Jul 27 2013, 01:12 AM

[grace]

Jesse Ferrell....on the melt lake at North Pole that for whatever reason the media has gone crazy over today. Turns out Jesse says its probably not the North Pole cam:

http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/...elting/15739869

BTW...here's a pic out of the naval archives at the North Pole in 1962:
http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/0858411.jpg
It says beside the pic:

Seadragon (SSN-584), foreground, and her sister Skate (SSN-578) during a rendezvous at the North Pole in August 1962. Note the men on the ice beyond the submarines.

I thought North Pole melt was a "new" thing.

Scroll down & you'll find the pic:
http://www.navsource.org/archives/08/08578.htm

This post has been edited by grace: Jul 27 2013, 01:13 AM