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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
grace
post Aug 9 2017, 07:22 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 9 2017, 07:02 AM) *




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jdrenken
post Aug 22 2017, 11:12 AM
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It's official we are published! Once you get past the editing stage we will have it available.
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Attached File  Screenshot_2017_08_22_08_38_19.png ( 121.08K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


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Undertakerson
post Aug 22 2017, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 22 2017, 12:12 PM) *
It's official we are published! Once you get past the editing stage we will have it available.

biggrin.gif cool.gif
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grace
post Aug 22 2017, 11:35 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 22 2017, 11:12 AM) *
It's official we are published! Once you get past the editing stage we will have it available.



Congrats!! wink.gif
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idecline
post Aug 24 2017, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 22 2017, 11:12 AM) *
It's official we are published! Once you get past the editing stage we will have it available.



QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 24 2017, 11:05 AM) *
Well done.

The analysis and forecast procedures I created during my intellectual contribution period are on GitHub at https://github.com/osnw3. From here one can generate analyses and forecasts of their own desire or help improve the analysis and forecast model. An example of this exists on my Recurring Rossby Wave Train website at the following url: http://consonantchaos.com/f-bsr.html. I anticipate collaboration with other enthusiasts of the BSR who also enjoy programming. Happy organicforecasting!


rolleyes.gif cheers to the both of you! The forces of nature are chaotic(as Quantum Physics has proven)...

and yet there is a subtle pattern that always underlies the fabric...nature is 'predictable in it's unpredictability'...thanks for expanding another method of man's quest to understand, and therefore 'predict' the 'patterns' that 'drive' the chaotic outcomes of this all too interconnected phenomena...




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"Science cannot solve the ultimate mystery of nature. And that is because, in the last analysis, we ourselves are part of nature and therefore part of the mystery that we are trying to solve."
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OSNW3
post Aug 25 2017, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(idecline @ Aug 24 2017, 09:28 PM) *
rolleyes.gif cheers to the both of you! The forces of nature are chaotic(as Quantum Physics has proven)...

and yet there is a subtle pattern that always underlies the fabric...nature is 'predictable in it's unpredictability'...thanks for expanding another method of man's quest to understand, and therefore 'predict' the 'patterns' that 'drive' the chaotic outcomes of this all too interconnected phenomena...


I appreciate this sentiment.


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jdrenken
post Aug 27 2017, 07:58 PM
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We Have Done It!


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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jdrenken
post Oct 15 2017, 12:45 PM
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Where Do We Go From Here?


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Oct 23 2017, 05:53 PM
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Watching

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 270.29K ) Number of downloads: 3
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JDClapper
post Oct 23 2017, 07:41 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 23 2017, 06:53 PM) *
Watching

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 270.29K ) Number of downloads: 3


What, this old thing?

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2017_11_November.php

Attached File  1.gif ( 129.09K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  2.gif ( 128.06K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2017, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 23 2017, 07:41 PM) *
What, this old thing?

http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2017_11_November.php

Attached File  1.gif ( 129.09K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  2.gif ( 128.06K ) Number of downloads: 2


Yep...his picture is once Lan dissipates in the BSR region. Looks like it will be roughly 15mb higher than what Nuri bottomed out at in 2014...920mb.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Oct 23 2017, 09:01 PM
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For comparison's sake...

Nuri '14
Attached File  Typhoon_Nuri.gif ( 75.79K ) Number of downloads: 2


Lan '17
Attached File  Typhoon_Lan.gif ( 304.74K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Oct 24 2017, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 23 2017, 06:53 PM) *
Watching

Attached File  P_96hrsfc.gif ( 270.29K ) Number of downloads: 3

Way out there yet, but this is now starting to get more and more interesting - IMHO, the overarching idea is there (in the LR GFS modeling)

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_us_53.png ( 207.84K ) Number of downloads: 7
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Boomer
post Oct 24 2017, 01:50 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 24 2017, 04:54 AM) *
Way out there yet, but this is now starting to get more and more interesting - IMHO, the overarching idea is there (in the LR GFS modeling)

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_us_53.png ( 207.84K ) Number of downloads: 7


A nice ridge in the East again? tongue.gif
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JDClapper
post Oct 24 2017, 02:21 PM
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First 5 days of November... so the BSR says.

Attached File  bsr.gif ( 1.21MB ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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JDClapper
post Oct 24 2017, 02:28 PM
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And here's the biggun mid-month.. via Lan/BSR.

Gonna be a whopper in the Plains .. I kind of expect one of those big, windy warm-ups here before a step-down as it passes.

Attached File  bsr.gif ( 946.56K ) Number of downloads: 2


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 0"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Cool, thanks.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 24 2017, 03:06 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Oct 24 2017, 06:54 AM) *
Way out there yet, but this is now starting to get more and more interesting - IMHO, the overarching idea is there (in the LR GFS modeling)

Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_us_53.png ( 207.84K ) Number of downloads: 7

If I'm not mistaken, I think the corresponding system would come sometime between November 11-14.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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Undertakerson
post Oct 24 2017, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 24 2017, 03:21 PM) *
First 5 days of November... so the BSR says.

Attached File  bsr.gif ( 1.21MB ) Number of downloads: 2

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Attached File  gfs_z500_vort_namer_37.png ( 196.09K ) Number of downloads: 3
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jdrenken
post Oct 24 2017, 07:37 PM
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The finalized paper...

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Oct 24 2017, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 24 2017, 03:06 PM) *
If I'm not mistaken, I think the corresponding system would come sometime between November 11-14.


True...but you know the GFS will more than likely be too fast. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
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