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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR
OSNW3
post Sep 20 2014, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 20 2014, 08:10 AM) *
Second week of November huh.....perfect timing for my deer hunting vacation and rut time. Granted that's mn


I am using one climate zone to work out the bugs. The rest of the conus will be ready the 2nd or 3rd of October. I am looking forward to dropping it and letting it do its thing. Hopefully it doesnt *bleep* the bed.


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OSNW3
post Sep 21 2014, 08:11 AM
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Seems like the 06Z GFS is picking up on the BSR connection from 9/12 ish for 10/2 ish. It's getting there. Give it some more time. Also, the 12-15 day short-term ISO/RR dominance pin points the upcoming patterns on harmonics that do not fall on the "LRC harmonic" (has anyone LRC related mentioned what it could be yet? 54-60 is my guess). One will need to utilize the Nth harmonic before and after it to find the best accuracy.

Attached File  iso52.png ( 70.14K ) Number of downloads: 2


Just an idea.


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jdrenken
post Sep 21 2014, 08:48 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:11 AM) *
Seems like the 06Z GFS is picking up on the BSR connection from 9/12 ish for 10/2 ish. It's getting there. Give it some more time. Also, the 12-15 day short-term ISO/RR dominance pin points the upcoming patterns on harmonics that do not fall on the "LRC harmonic" (has anyone LRC related mentioned what it could be yet? 54-60 is my guess). One will need to utilize the Nth harmonic before and after it to find the best accuracy.

Attached File  iso52.png ( 70.14K ) Number of downloads: 2


Just an idea.



Nice! Once again I am sitting back and letting it evolve while watching people tweet or post facebook status regarding a warm start to October.


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OSNW3
post Sep 21 2014, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 21 2014, 08:48 AM) *
Nice! Once again I am sitting back and letting it evolve while watching people tweet or post facebook status regarding a warm start to October.


That is one way to do it. smile.gif

I am attempting to document the always evolving standing wave frequency utilizing the BSR time space. It is buried in this thread. Only if I had the extra time and brain capacity to document it properly. For now this thread will do. LOL


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jdrenken
post Sep 21 2014, 08:59 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:54 AM) *
That is one way to do it. smile.gif

I am attempting to document the always evolving standing wave frequency utilizing the BSR time space. It is buried in this thread. Only if I had the extra time and brain capacity to document it properly. For now this thread will do. LOL


Preach it brother! Don't get me started on the "never-ending" juggle of time management. wink.gif laugh.gif


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blizzardOf96
post Sep 21 2014, 10:38 AM
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The 0z Euro is ending the warm period with a bang in the 15-20 day(~Oct 7-9th) as soon to be Kammuri recurves E of Japan with strong trough amplification on the model. GFS has a similar idea:
Attached File  gfs_asia_192_500_vort_ht.gif ( 63.53K ) Number of downloads: 4

GEFS has this as well:
Attached File  gefs_z500a_expac_41.png ( 137.7K ) Number of downloads: 3


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Sep 21 2014, 10:39 AM


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OSNW3
post Sep 21 2014, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 02:59 PM) *
It's so weird to see this much red for the east half of the US.

6-10 day


8-14 day


Not sure it lasts that far into October, but utilizing the cyclic nature of the atmosphere, the 3rd harmonic shows similar tendencies in same time frame - ish. I did a quick compare of 9/24 connecting to 8/22.

Attached File  compday.4tL68Wv29Y.gif ( 33.96K ) Number of downloads: 0


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2014, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 04:25 PM) *
Not sure it lasts that far into October, but utilizing the cyclic nature of the atmosphere, the 3rd harmonic shows similar tendencies in same time frame - ish. I did a quick compare of 9/24 connecting to 8/22.

Attached File  compday.4tL68Wv29Y.gif ( 33.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

Forgive my ignorance to the subject, and specifically harmonics... but is there an analog date for the upcoming warm spell? I don't recall a period this past year where the west is forecast to be wetter than the east. So I have a feeling the answer lies within this .gif... am I right?

QUOTE(MaineJay @ Sep 9 2014, 06:51 AM) *
I'm hoping to follow this thread much more carefully and learn more about what you are doing. It's wicked interesting, and just wanted to extend a thanks for all your efforts.

Guitar strings work in a similar way, however the forcing is not at the end, but along the string. It made me think, thicker and/or looser strings vibrate at lower frequencies and higher amplitude, and thinner/tighter ones at higher frequencies/ low amp, does the jet stream exhibit similar tendencies? I.e. a slow, broad jets more sinuous than a tight, fast regime?

Sorry if this is all just nonsense. Keep up the good work!



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 21 2014, 04:24 PM


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OSNW3
post Sep 21 2014, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 04:21 PM) *
Forgive my ignorance to the subject, and specifically harmonics... but is there an analog date for the upcoming warm spell? I don't recall a period this past year where the west is forecast to be wetter than the east. So I have a feeling the answer lies within this .gif... am I right?


If I put the chart in motion it's like watching an oscilloscope. I am certain there is an example buried in this thread somewhere. ~34 days is working back into the top-10, into dominance (heat-map type table I posted earlier today). ~34 days from when the trough settles into the west. I believe I compared 9/24 to 8/22 and moved ahead 10 ish days for your comparison. (Nth harmonic before)

Attached File  iso53.png ( 59.11K ) Number of downloads: 2


Also, see 18Z GFS 276. (Nth harmonic after) ~68 days

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1907075


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 21 2014, 08:53 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 21 2014, 09:41 PM) *
If I put the chart in motion it's like watching an oscilloscope. I am certain there is an example buried in this thread somewhere. ~34 days is working back into the top-10, into dominance (heat-map type table I posted earlier today). ~34 days from when the trough settles into the west. I believe I compared 9/24 to 8/22 and moved ahead 10 ish days for your comparison. (Nth harmonic before)

Attached File  iso53.png ( 59.11K ) Number of downloads: 2


Also, see 18Z GFS 276. (Nth harmonic after) ~68 days

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1907075

8/20 is a decent analog


There are noticeable differences, but it's alright... it's not supposed to be perfect anyway.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 21 2014, 09:12 PM


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- The Great Blizzard of 1978
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OSNW3
post Sep 22 2014, 06:31 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 21 2014, 08:53 PM) *
8/20 is a decent analog
There are noticeable differences, but it's alright... it's not supposed to be perfect anyway.


I didn't use 8/20 in my comparison. Perhaps I should have.

I am in the mode that a solid technique is to seek the dominant harmonic and project from that analog. Low 30 days seem strong yet, but upper 60 days are working back into the mix. Evident to me that the standing wave continues to oscillate. It is not a static cycle. If it were, and things were perfect, would this be as entertaining?

Attached File  iso54.png ( 46.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Glad to see the GFS long range catching onto the connection of the ISO/RR and BSR. It will be fun to watch the flow of this part of the wave. Some will say it's a brand new pattern in a brand new cycle.




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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 22 2014, 10:11 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 22 2014, 07:31 AM) *
I didn't use 8/20 in my comparison. Perhaps I should have.

I am in the mode that a solid technique is to seek the dominant harmonic and project from that analog. Low 30 days seem strong yet, but upper 60 days are working back into the mix. Evident to me that the standing wave continues to oscillate. It is not a static cycle. If it were, and things were perfect, would this be as entertaining?

Attached File  iso54.png ( 46.07K ) Number of downloads: 0


Glad to see the GFS long range catching onto the connection of the ISO/RR and BSR. It will be fun to watch the flow of this part of the wave. Some will say it's a brand new pattern in a brand new cycle.

Are you referring to the trough at ~hour 228 on the 06z GFS?


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

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Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 9 (Last: 5/24/17)
Slight risks: 7 (Last: 5/27/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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OSNW3
post Sep 22 2014, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 22 2014, 10:11 AM) *
Are you referring to the trough at ~hour 228 on the 06z GFS?


I have an image in my head of how it might look, resembling 7/26 and several days afterwards. It will be interesting to see how it is modeled in the coming days. I am connecting 7/26 to 10/2 based on the 5th harmonic of the 13-14 day dominant short-term, ~68 days.

Just an idea.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 22 2014, 12:42 PM


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OSNW3
post Sep 23 2014, 10:29 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 22 2014, 12:41 PM) *
I have an image in my head of how it might look, resembling 7/26 and several days afterwards. It will be interesting to see how it is modeled in the coming days. I am connecting 7/26 to 10/2 based on the 5th harmonic of the 13-14 day dominant short-term, ~68 days.

Just an idea.


13-14, 68-69, and 32 days. I see 32 days as the current pattern.

Attached File  wow005.png ( 594.59K ) Number of downloads: 2


Then as the wave evolves another harmonic takes dominance. 68-69 days. Neither of these harmonics are the LRC harmonic, which some say is upper 50s this year, (I agree with 54-60). Currently it just isn't correlating. 50-60 day correls below as of this AM.

-0.137090274 (50)
-0.287022532
-0.308953095
-0.234573699
-0.16274955
-0.079058749
-0.138721448
-0.234906878
-0.208052126
-0.08522911
-0.045593103 (60)

Using 32 days, the harmonic runs it's course using Aug 22 through Sep 1 ish. Then the trough digs in and the dominance is 68-69 days. Standing wave harmonics. We shall see. smile.gif

EDIT: Just an idea.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 23 2014, 10:31 AM


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jdrenken
post Sep 24 2014, 11:03 AM
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Well lookie here...


Don't have to think twice about what I am going to be advocating at the cpc st. louis conference!


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jdrenken
post Sep 25 2014, 08:44 AM
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Hello everyone,



This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area.

Tropical Storm Kammuri will recurve just short of Iwo Jima by the 28th and that gives Central Missouri an extra cold boost roughly around the 5th of October. Zonal flow follows on the 2nd of October and continues until the 5th when another strong trough pushes through matching my timeline of the 9th into the 14th being cooler than normal. I am watching the potential of an upper level low setting up over Sakhalin Island which will provide us with an extended period of below normal temperatures. I believe it’s sensing the pattern, just placing it a week early as it doesn’t match the Bering Sea Rule showing a ridge for the middle of October.

The Bering Sea is continuing the Omega style blocking as upper level lows are Southwest of Valdez, Alaska and Southeast of the southern tip of Kamchatka Peninsula. This forces ridging between them in the Bering Sea. Both systems are progressive in nature, so the block doesn’t stay for more than 3 days. That being said, we have a strong upper level low in the Sea of Okhotsk that will throw multiple systems into the Bering Sea and keep the trough pattern continuing until the 7th. This translates to Central Missouri being below normal in temperatures for the last two weeks of October.

Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.


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OSNW3
post Sep 26 2014, 07:36 AM
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This happened 20+ days ago. Source

Attached File  ASIA_TPW_20140903_12Z.png ( 305.06K ) Number of downloads: 4


Could this be the result in the recurring pattern?

Attached File  iso55.png ( 42.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Kinks in the long-term longwave...

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Sep 26 2014, 07:37 AM


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 26 2014, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 26 2014, 07:36 AM) *
This happened 20+ days ago. Source

Attached File  iso55.png ( 42.65K ) Number of downloads: 0


Kinks in the long-term longwave...

Im definitely behind the game this year......

could you explain what this chart shows with the correlating reds/blues....I have the normal assumption but more so the scales and numbers
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OSNW3
post Sep 26 2014, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 26 2014, 08:19 AM) *
Im definitely behind the game this year......

could you explain what this chart shows with the correlating reds/blues....I have the normal assumption but more so the scales and numbers


10-90 day correlation. Showing top 10 only. Just another way to visualize the recurring patterns and dominant frequency of the standing wave. Only two durations make the cut right now and are without sequence.


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JDClapper
post Sep 26 2014, 02:20 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 26 2014, 12:08 PM) *
10-90 day correlation. Showing top 10 only. Just another way to visualize the recurring patterns and dominant frequency of the standing wave. Only two durations make the cut right now and are without sequence.


I think I'm getting it... if it falls in the 1 slot, that is the most dominant frequency for that date (e.g., 9/12 was 10 days, but 9/26 is 33).. and one could surmise that on 9/22, if we went back 13 or 14 days (top 2) that would lead us to the best pattern comparison? And 68 or 69 days ago would also be a pretty close match?

Swing and miss?


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