Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

322 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2015-2016 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Enigma
post Mar 7 2015, 10:39 AM
Post #21




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 68
Joined: 8-October 14
Member No.: 29,954





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 7 2015, 09:57 AM) *
Picking and choosing which region he was correct/incorrect is just as bad as claiming someone has a blanket statement.

How can you be correct with one region and not others when the parameters for said forecast is the same? Hence...the forecast was wrong...period.




How did your forecast workout?
I didn't see it in the winter forecast thread?

From what I see there Huffman's forecast
looked pretty good.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 7 2015, 10:53 AM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Enigma @ Mar 7 2015, 09:39 AM) *
How did your forecast workout?
I didn't see it in the winter forecast thread?

From what I see there Huffman's forecast
looked pretty good.


I am quoted in multiple articles in Central Missouri for our region and didn't go into other regions. I busted on the snowfall amount as I thought we'd get more snow than we did, but was spot on for the temperature and "backloaded winter" thoughts.

Allan Huffman's forecast wasn't being questioned btw.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Mar 7 2015, 09:23 PM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,057
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Mar 7 2015, 09:53 AM) *
I am quoted in multiple articles in Central Missouri for our region and didn't go into other regions. I busted on the snowfall amount as I thought we'd get more snow than we did, but was spot on for the temperature and "backloaded winter" thoughts.

Allan Huffman's forecast wasn't being questioned btw.



Your backloaded winter call was what I remember the most from you and it was SPOT ON!

EDIT: All your snow was in my backyard...lol

This post has been edited by grace: Mar 7 2015, 09:24 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Mar 7 2015, 09:40 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,057
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 7 2015, 12:04 AM) *
I second this.


I 3rd this smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Mar 7 2015, 10:01 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,057
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(MotownWX @ Mar 5 2015, 10:36 AM) *
As long as the North Pacific feels like baby bathwater, my bets are on Western Ridge/Eastern Trough until proven otherwise.

At this point, it isn't about individuals wishing for such-and-such pattern to suit what they like. The West Coast needs troughiness and Pacific energy. Soon. Those few weeks in December barely put a dent in that drought. They might be enjoying waking up to gorgeous sunny days, every single day, but at some point you need a higher elevation snowpack.


if indeed those waters stay warm the Alaskan ridge will abound. If the NAO is more negative than the last 2 winters then watchout!! it's hard for me to buy a 3rd consecutive mostly positive NAO. Especially with solar activity past it's peak in this cycle
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 7 2015, 10:05 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,606
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Mar 7 2015, 10:01 PM) *
if indeed those waters stay warm the Alaskan ridge will abound. If the NAO is more negative than the last 2 winters then watchout!! it's hard for me to buy a 3rd consecutive mostly positive NAO. Especially with solar activity past it's peak in this cycle

It's hard for me to believe that we'll see 3 straight winters featuring a western ridge/eastern trough pattern, yet here we are. blink.gif

Any bets on how long until people start bringing up 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2013-2014? laugh.gif I'll take 4 months.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 7 2015, 10:10 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Mar 7 2015, 10:37 PM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,889
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 7 2015, 09:05 PM) *
It's hard for me to believe that we'll see 3 straight winters featuring a western ridge/eastern trough pattern, yet here we are. blink.gif

Any bets on how long until people start bringing up 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2013-2014? laugh.gif I'll take 4 months.


Lol. Our 2015-16 winter analog begins with late November 1978. Western troughs galore. smile.gif

http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdoc...ather_maps.html


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 7 2015, 10:42 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,606
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 7 2015, 10:37 PM) *
Lol. Our 2015-16 winter analog begins with late November 1978. Western troughs galore. smile.gif

http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdoc...ather_maps.html

That'd be nice... but as has been said already, that bathwater that is the eastern Pacific ocean needs to calm down.

Anyone else see the cruel irony of using bathwater as an analog to the eastern Pacific SSTs? Those "baby bathwater" eastern Pacific SST's are the reason why California doesn't have any water with which to bathe... rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 7 2015, 10:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Mar 8 2015, 02:04 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,057
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 7 2015, 09:05 PM) *
It's hard for me to believe that we'll see 3 straight winters featuring a western ridge/eastern trough pattern, yet here we are. blink.gif

Any bets on how long until people start bringing up 1976-1977, 1977-1978, and 2013-2014? laugh.gif I'll take 4 months.


As long as there is the super warm water there will not be a western trough for hardly any length of time...hence those who kept calling for the -PNA western troughs this winter failed.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 8 2015, 02:07 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,606
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(grace @ Mar 8 2015, 02:04 AM) *
As long as there is the super warm water there will not be a western trough for hardly any length of time...hence those who kept calling for the -PNA western troughs this winter failed.

I know but my point was that clearly anything is possible with respect to the NAO because we've had 2 years in a row now with a west ridge/east trough.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grace
post Mar 8 2015, 11:31 AM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,057
Joined: 21-January 10
From: Paducah, Ky
Member No.: 21,017





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 8 2015, 02:07 AM) *
I know but my point was that clearly anything is possible with respect to the NAO because we've had 2 years in a row now with a west ridge/east trough.


Oh...I definitely agree there. One of the main reasons I'm hopeful for the NAO next winter is the decline in solar activity or should be a decline, since the peak of this cycle has occurred. I'm not an expert in the relationship between solar activity & high latitude blocking but I do know that supposedly the spike in solar activity the last two winters has played a role in the ability for the stratospheric PV to recover. And also there is a supposed relationship between solar & ssw events & high latitude blocking.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Mar 8 2015, 02:08 PM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,122
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(grace @ Mar 7 2015, 09:23 PM) *
Your backloaded winter call was what I remember the most from you and it was SPOT ON!

EDIT: All your snow was in my backyard...lol


Thanks and just twist the knife a little bit why don't 'cha! laugh.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Mar 12 2015, 08:04 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,580
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





For personal pleasure, working on a little "heat map" of sorts... to see, at a glance, what dates tend to be the snowiest date in the Williamsport area. Doing a week a day, to keep my sanity .. but here's what I have so far, since tracking snowfall in the 2001-2002 season.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 42.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 12 2015, 08:47 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,606
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Wow, JB is hinting at ANOTHER cold winter forecast?! laugh.gif rolleyes.gif



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 12 2015, 08:49 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Mar 12 2015, 09:26 PM
Post #35




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,580
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 12 2015, 09:47 PM) *
Wow, JB is hinting at ANOTHER cold winter forecast?! laugh.gif rolleyes.gif



A trifecta?? laugh.gif wink.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Mar 12 2015, 09:42 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,889
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 12 2015, 07:04 PM) *
For personal pleasure, working on a little "heat map" of sorts... to see, at a glance, what dates tend to be the snowiest date in the Williamsport area. Doing a week a day, to keep my sanity .. but here's what I have so far, since tracking snowfall in the 2001-2002 season.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 42.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Cool. I look forward to the finished product.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Mar 12 2015, 10:11 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,394
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 12 2015, 10:42 PM) *
Cool. I look forward to the finished product.


Second that smile.gif


--------------------
“If you find life asking you the same questions, then you haven't learned the lesson"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Mar 13 2015, 08:46 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,580
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 12 2015, 09:04 PM) *
For personal pleasure, working on a little "heat map" of sorts... to see, at a glance, what dates tend to be the snowiest date in the Williamsport area. Doing a week a day, to keep my sanity .. but here's what I have so far, since tracking snowfall in the 2001-2002 season.

Attached File  a.jpg ( 42.82K ) Number of downloads: 0


Added another week.. appears 11/23 really kicks off the higher chances of measurable snow in these parts (recent history) and 12/5 kicks off the "bigger" storms.

12/14, only snowed twice in the past 14 years.. and they were both "Top 10" storms in MBY. ohmy.gif

Attached File  a.jpg ( 39.27K ) Number of downloads: 0



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 13 2015, 08:51 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,606
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 13 2015, 09:46 PM) *
Added another week.. appears 11/23 really kicks off the higher chances of measurable snow in these parts (recent history) and 12/5 kicks off the "bigger" storms.

12/14, only snowed twice in the past 14 years.. and they were both "Top 10" storms in MBY. ohmy.gif

Attached File  a.jpg ( 39.27K ) Number of downloads: 0

Sounds locked in--I'll create a thread for it right now laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 13 2015, 08:51 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Mar 13 2015, 09:02 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,580
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 13 2015, 09:51 PM) *
Sounds locked in--I'll create a thread for it right now laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif rolleyes.gif


LMAO .. based on your history .. I don't doubt that at all..

haha.. sorry, had to. wink.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = "

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

322 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 24th September 2017 - 01:37 AM