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> Long Range Winter 2015-2016 Outlooks, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 13 2015, 10:15 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 13 2015, 10:02 PM) *
LMAO .. based on your history .. I don't doubt that at all..

haha.. sorry, had to. wink.gif

No worries, that's what I was getting at laugh.gif if you can't laugh at yourself, who can you laugh at?


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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JDClapper
post Mar 14 2015, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 13 2015, 09:46 PM) *
Added another week.. appears 11/23 really kicks off the higher chances of measurable snow in these parts (recent history) and 12/5 kicks off the "bigger" storms.

12/14, only snowed twice in the past 14 years.. and they were both "Top 10" storms in MBY. ohmy.gif

[attachment=263181:a.jpg]


Today's update.. I went through end of December b/c, well, not very eventful around the Christmas Holiday in these parts of Central PA. Look at how little snow events have occurred 3 days before and after Christmas! It's like Mother Nature knows this is when many would be sort-of happy to have a little white, and is like, "Yeah, no."

Attached File  a.jpg ( 54.98K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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OSNW3
post Mar 14 2015, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 14 2015, 12:08 PM) *
Today's update.. I went through end of December b/c, well, not very eventful around the Christmas Holiday in these parts of Central PA. Look at how little snow events have occurred 3 days before and after Christmas! It's like Mother Nature knows this is when many would be sort-of happy to have a little white, and is like, "Yeah, no."


What is your criteria? I want to do the same sorta comparison for my back yard. Also, reading your signature, if only my trends would not have had second thoughts about the 40+ inch winter in your area...



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JDClapper
post Mar 14 2015, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 14 2015, 04:54 PM) *
What is your criteria? I want to do the same sorta comparison for my back yard. Also, reading your signature, if only my trends would not have had second thoughts about the 40+ inch winter in your area...


Only criteria I really have is I document "events" of at LEAST 1/4" .. I don't fool around with 0.1 or 0.2"

For this map, I'm simply going back through my records and noting each event for that particular date and using a slightly darker shade of blue as there are more numbers of events.. (starting with a light red for 0 events, then a white shade for 1 event). Very Excel 101 indeed.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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OSNW3
post Mar 19 2015, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 14 2015, 07:16 PM) *
Only criteria I really have is I document "events" of at LEAST 1/4" .. I don't fool around with 0.1 or 0.2"

For this map, I'm simply going back through my records and noting each event for that particular date and using a slightly darker shade of blue as there are more numbers of events.. (starting with a light red for 0 events, then a white shade for 1 event). Very Excel 101 indeed.


Tossed them together quick. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/dws-dt.html

Snowiest date in Oshkosh, WI since 1893 is January 18th. 33 days with recorded snowfall out of 122 opportunities. smile.gif


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JDClapper
post Mar 20 2015, 04:47 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Mar 19 2015, 10:49 PM) *
Tossed them together quick. http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/dws-dt.html

Snowiest date in Oshkosh, WI since 1893 is January 18th. 33 days with recorded snowfall out of 122 opportunities. smile.gif


Yeah!!!

I'm doing too much manual work, I know I could make it easier with just a count then do a color scheme based on the numbers (I do it with my old "LRC" map actually) .. maybe I'll do 2.. a calendar with the amounts and years and something like what you did. I like it.

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Mar 20 2015, 04:47 AM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MotownWX
post Mar 20 2015, 06:55 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 12 2015, 09:47 PM) *
Wow, JB is hinting at ANOTHER cold winter forecast?! laugh.gif rolleyes.gif



I don't blame him. It's the easiest, safest forecast to make.

In other words, using March Madness analogy, I'd say "West ridge, East trough" is the automatic #1 seed at this point. It doesn't mean that it'll 'win', but being back-to-back annual returning champions, it's hard not to put it as top seed.

This post has been edited by MotownWX: Mar 20 2015, 07:23 AM
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JDClapper
post Mar 20 2015, 07:11 PM
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Attached File  a.jpg ( 10.97K ) Number of downloads: 6


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2015, 07:09 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Mar 20 2015, 08:11 PM) *
Attached File  a.jpg ( 10.97K ) Number of downloads: 6

Plot twist: Boston gets torched next winter laugh.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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JDClapper
post Mar 20 2015, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 20 2015, 08:09 PM) *
Plot twist: Boston gets torched next winter laugh.gif


laugh.gif Oh the drama.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Apr 10 2015, 05:32 AM
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More of the same in store??

http://phys.org/news/2015-04-blob-pacific-...nked-weird.html
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MotownWX
post Apr 10 2015, 11:43 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 10 2015, 06:32 AM) *


It sure makes long-range winter forecasts easier to predict. No more drama.

This pattern is pure heaven for those hard-core winter lovers who live in the Upper Midwest / Northeast (and Ontario/Quebec, which is the new Arctic Circle).

For everyone else, it's kinda depressing. Even those who are typically easy going about winter, like me, have found the long tundra-like winters to be tough to handle. And Californians might enjoy seeing the sun 365 days per year, but good luck getting a drop of water out of your faucet soon.

What's unnerving is it's really anyone's guess when it'll change. It could be next month, next year, or ten years, or who knows. But my betting money is on 2015-16 being another West Ridge/East Trough configuration and long streches of negative double-digit daily departures imby.
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snowsux
post Apr 12 2015, 08:33 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Apr 10 2015, 06:32 AM) *


Just more "well golly gee, what a wacky weather pattern that we don't know anything about" nonsense from the baffled meteorological community....for 2 years. Meanwhile there's a mountain of evidence pointing to a perfectly sound explanation, but most people rather remain dismissive of that icky, scary notion instead of taking a few hours and actually researching the theory.
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PGM
post Apr 12 2015, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(MotownWX @ Apr 10 2015, 12:43 PM) *
What's unnerving is it's really anyone's guess when it'll change. It could be next month, next year, or ten years, or who knows. But my betting money is on 2015-16 being another West Ridge/East Trough configuration and long streches of negative double-digit daily departures imby.

I find it very unlikely we'll get a third winter of well below average temperatures. Looking back we have had three cold winters in a row only once since the 19th century with the winters of 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79. Is there any indication to believe we will get another cold winter other than the warm blob in the Pacific? Has there been warm winters in the eastern US with the warm blob in the Pacific? The pattern looks to be changing with this past mild December, mild March, and mild April in the works.

This post has been edited by PGM: Apr 12 2015, 09:58 AM
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alczervik
post Apr 12 2015, 10:16 AM
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QUOTE(PGM @ Apr 12 2015, 10:47 AM) *
I find it very unlikely we'll get a third winter of well below average temperatures. Looking back we have had three cold winters in a row only once since the 19th century with the winters of 1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79. Is there any indication to believe we will get another cold winter other than the warm blob in the Pacific? Has there been warm winters in the eastern US with the warm blob in the Pacific? The pattern looks to be changing with this past mild December, mild March, and mild April in the works.


unless all that warm water goes away in the north eastern pacific, expect the same as past two years for winter. Comparing the last two winters reveals this has been a constant in the pattern. Vortex was mainly culprit in 13-14. This year was the western ridge eastern trough.

What is strange is that we have had a pretty decent spring so far. I dont think you can have a warm NE pacific and warm midwest/eastern us.

This post has been edited by alczervik: Apr 12 2015, 10:18 AM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 12 2015, 02:10 PM
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There's been a significant change in SST's in the north-central Pacific over the past 2 weeks... moving away from the classic +PDO signal that's been present for a while. We had a false alarm last October/November when it seemed the cool north-central Pacific was moving east... but that quickly stopped. Regardless, this is worth watching

March 29


April 11


Change in the past week:


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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MotownWX
post Apr 13 2015, 07:37 AM
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In the 'blob' column, I found this part interesting:

QUOTE
New research out of the University of Washington suggests that this blob of warmer water may be caused by a persistent high pressure ridge in the northeast Pacific, which has led to calmer ocean conditions over the past two winters.


Up until now, I thought it was the other way around, where the high pressure bubble was caused by the warm blob. If this is true, I've been assuming incorrectly this whole time.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2015, 08:11 AM
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QUOTE(MotownWX @ Apr 13 2015, 08:37 AM) *
In the 'blob' column, I found this part interesting:
Up until now, I thought it was the other way around, where the high pressure bubble was caused by the warm blob. If this is true, I've been assuming incorrectly this whole time.

It's a positive feedback loop... the warm pool encourages a ridge... through increased sunshine and warmth, it continues to warm the waters... but the warm pool isn't the only player for the weather in that area. If the warm pool was the main factor for the weather there, then that warm pool and ridge would become a permanent feature... it's not. That's why we've seen troughs come into that area every so often.... and that warm pool isn't going to last forever.

This warm pool wasn't even there in January... but then it "suddenly" appeared after February. Not shocking considering the pattern that month.






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 13 2015, 08:17 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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alczervik
post Apr 15 2015, 03:26 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 13 2015, 09:11 AM) *
It's a positive feedback loop... the warm pool encourages a ridge... through increased sunshine and warmth, it continues to warm the waters... but the warm pool isn't the only player for the weather in that area. If the warm pool was the main factor for the weather there, then that warm pool and ridge would become a permanent feature... it's not. That's why we've seen troughs come into that area every so often.... and that warm pool isn't going to last forever.

This warm pool wasn't even there in January... but then it "suddenly" appeared after February. Not shocking considering the pattern that month.






It seems like it is kind of permanent. Especially since the western ridge disappears for maybe a couple of days at a time.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 15 2015, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(alczervik @ Apr 15 2015, 04:26 PM) *
It seems like it is kind of permanent. Especially since the western ridge disappears for maybe a couple of days at a time.

That's why they call it semi-permanent... because it's not actually permanent and will never be permanent.
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Attached File  MonthTDeptUS__2_.png ( 16.89K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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