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> 2016-17 La Nina Watch, Long-range Forecasts and Observations
ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 8 2016, 11:00 PM
Post #41




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POAMA has a high-end weak Nina by September





This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 8 2016, 11:02 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 14 2016, 08:33 PM
Post #42




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Shame we aren't even at the Spring barrier yet




That's similar to the strongest Nina on record... but slightly weaker.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 14 2016, 08:43 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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andyhb
post Jan 14 2016, 08:51 PM
Post #43




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Pretty sure that's just as strong if not stronger over the central/western ENSO regions there. That is a classic +TNI configuration with relatively warm SSTAs in Nino 1+2 and cold SSTAs in Nino 4.

This post has been edited by andyhb: Jan 14 2016, 08:52 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 14 2016, 08:56 PM
Post #44




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QUOTE(andyhb @ Jan 14 2016, 08:51 PM) *
Pretty sure that's just as strong if not stronger over the central/western ENSO regions there. That is a classic +TNI configuration with relatively warm SSTAs in Nino 1+2 and cold SSTAs in Nino 4.

Yup. Would bode for very, very, very interesting weather in the OV and Dixie alley. Even if you knock 1C off that, it'd still be very impressive.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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JDClapper
post Jan 14 2016, 09:06 PM
Post #45




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Strong Nina Years..

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

73-74, 75-76, 88-89

December

Attached File  strongnina_dec_t.png ( 422.82K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  strongnina_dec_p.png ( 419.19K ) Number of downloads: 0


January

Attached File  strongnina_jan_t.png ( 407.28K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  strongnina_jan_p.png ( 416.54K ) Number of downloads: 0


February

Attached File  strongnina_feb_t.png ( 415.92K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  strongnina_feb_p.png ( 406.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 15 2016, 09:47 AM
Post #46




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JAMSTEC updated... very aggressive transition to Nina




Here's how it handled the 2010-2012 Nina in January 2010




Pretty good.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 31 2016, 10:57 PM
Post #47




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CanSIPS is still showing a strong west/central-based Nina as well as maintenance of the -AMO




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 31 2016, 11:02 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2016, 08:48 PM
Post #48




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Very surprised to see so many models showing a -PDO. I know we called for the PDO to flip almost a year ago because there were some signals in the west... but I thought if it was gonna happen, JAMSTEC and CFS would've picked up on something like that at least in the very long range. But nope. Who knows.





--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Feb 8 2016, 09:23 PM
Post #49




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Some of those models are quite aggressive with the -PDO AND La Nina by July.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 9 2016, 09:38 PM
Post #50




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NMME says west-central based Nina



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 11 2016, 02:55 PM
Post #51




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CPC says 50% chance of Nina by Fall smile.gif




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 11 2016, 02:56 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 11 2016, 02:54 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 11 2016, 01:55 PM) *
CPC says 50% chance of Nina by Fall smile.gif



Nice! Let's hope so


--------------------




Severe Thunderstorm Watch:3
Severe Thunderstorm Warning:7
Tornado Watch:2
Tornado Warning:1


2016-2017 Snowfall:6.3"
2015-2016 Snowfall:14.7"
2014-2015 Snowfall:27.8"
2013-2014 Snowfall:42.8"
2012-2013 Snowfall:24.4"


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 11 2016, 02:59 PM
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Comparison of current conditions to the Nino's peak




The entire Pacific basin (from the Equator northward) has cooled a whole bunch, too.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 11 2016, 03:00 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 11 2016, 11:21 PM
Post #54




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Brand new JAMSTEC is in. High-end weak Nina, but lasting for 2 winters




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Feb 11 2016, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 11 2016, 08:21 PM) *
Brand new JAMSTEC is in. High-end weak Nina, but lasting for 2 winters



It shows a +PDO in SON too.

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Feb 11 2016, 11:21 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 11 2016, 11:33 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Feb 11 2016, 11:21 PM) *
It shows a +PDO in SON too.

It and CFS are outliers in that regard. But they're some of the biggest/most well known seasonal models for a reason. A PDO flip makes sense with the ENSO flip, but you'd think one of those two models would see it first.



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 12 2016, 03:28 PM
Post #57




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The warm underwater anomalies in the east are re-strengthening again. The cool waters in the west have risen by a very small amount. Maybe 5-10 meters at most.

Attached File  enso212_1_.png ( 14.57K ) Number of downloads: 0

Attached File  enso212.png ( 14.79K ) Number of downloads: 0


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 12 2016, 03:39 PM
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blink.gif



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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stuffradio
post Feb 12 2016, 04:38 PM
Post #59




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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 12 2016, 12:39 PM) *
blink.gif


The CFSv2 trying to spoil the party!
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 15 2016, 03:10 PM
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Euro trended to a quicker transition to Nina. There's a cluster of ensembles that suggest region 3.4 will be around -0.5C in July, possibly as low as -1C. Believe it or not, the region 3.4 observations actually cooled quicker than most of the ensembles were expecting.




Here's the JMA

CODE
2016/02 2016/03 2016/04 2016/05 2016/06 2016/07 2016/08
ENS 2.14 1.71 1.43 1.00 0.03 -0.74 -1.02
UP 2.28 1.92 1.65 1.41 0.67 -0.06 -0.28
LOW 1.90 1.42 1.04 0.46 -0.69 -1.45 -1.83




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 15 2016, 03:13 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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