Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

27 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Summer 2016 Outlooks and Discussions, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here.
NorEaster07
post Apr 11 2016, 05:03 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,421
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2016, 04:57 PM) *
That subtropical high is always there in the summer, but how it extends west is what differentiates extreme summers.

Here's July 2009. You can clearly see the ridge in the south-central Atlantic... but there's effectively no

They're basically saying the SE ridge will make its presence known to those of us in the east US... opposed to months like July 2009.


Thanks. Right, I know, that's a given based on living and forecasting in the region. I like your thinking of picking a very cool summer and looking into that, looks like was tough for it to be a factor in Summer 2009 however 4 week Avg doesn't tell us if it happened or not.

I found this Accuweather image from 2009. Apparently it did show up at the end of May. Just didn't last long.

Attached File  Map83.jpg ( 29.62K ) Number of downloads: 0


Looking at all the days that summer, Wow. It was like front after front, LP after LP and when it tried to show up, it was gone 2 or 3 days later. Hence why it wasn't a big factor and why monthly maps wont show it.

Here's August 10, 2009. SouthEast Ridge




So is my thinking going to be accurate that it always happens in the East? Need to study it more.

I think it always happens every year for Eastern U.S, sometimes lasting longer than other years of course.. But it shouldn't be a surprise or even mentioned in a forecast as "don't be surprised if it shows up".

I say instead of saying that, maybe add a little more thought like how long they think it will be around or if it will be a dominate feature, ect.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 11 2016, 06:28 PM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,974
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Ok, yeah, I misinterpreted the point you were trying to make. You're right then. It's a very good bet that you'll see the robust SE ridge at some point in the summer, but as you said, how long it stays is what differentiates summers.

If someone were to say something along those lines, I'd interpret that to mean they wouldn't be surprised to see a sustained SE ridge since it's assumed that it'll show up at some point in the summer.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 11 2016, 06:31 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Apr 12 2016, 07:18 AM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,214
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 11 2016, 06:28 PM) *
Ok, yeah, I misinterpreted the point you were trying to make. You're right then. It's a very good bet that you'll see the robust SE ridge at some point in the summer, but as you said, how long it stays is what differentiates summers.

If someone were to say something along those lines, I'd interpret that to mean they wouldn't be surprised to see a sustained SE ridge since it's assumed that it'll show up at some point in the summer.


Sustained is the key word. Also...the SE ridge did not dominate July 2012. It was a Sonoran style heat wave from the SW that migrated into the Plains/MW.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Apr 12 2016, 08:31 AM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,421
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Looking for years we went from a moderate or strong El Nino Winter/Spring into a Neutral Summer... Only 3 times? (someone correct me if that's wrong). The rest either went fast into La Nina or came from a weak Nino or continued with Nino through summer.

Here is the temp departure result of those 3 years..

1966

Hartford hit 102° July that year with a couple of heat waves

Attached File  Nino1.jpg ( 110.85K ) Number of downloads: 0


1983

Hartford hit 90°+ 30 times that summer including hitting 98° in June.

Attached File  Nino2.jpg ( 112.73K ) Number of downloads: 0


1992

Wow. I don't remember this summer. Hartford did hit 90° twice in July and August but all 3 months ended up below normal that year.


NYC had 1 heat wave July 1992 and close to one in August but all months ended up below normal

Attached File  Nino3.jpg ( 109.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


The blend of all those years.

Attached File  Nino4.jpg ( 116.94K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 12 2016, 08:55 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post Apr 12 2016, 09:51 AM
Post #45




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





I am wondering if we are overlooking moisture in this brief analysis. If it is a wetter pattern, daytime highs will be suppressed a bit more while overnight lows will be more elevated. In a year like 2012 and especially 1983 (and for that matter, 1988, 1991, and 1995), those were dry summers and the afternoon highs would tend to spike more while overnight lows would drop off. In the summer of 1988 for instance, it was hot nearly the whole summer but yet record lows were set across the east July 1 and 2.

It can be hot AND moist, but it is more common for it to be cool and moist e.g. summer 2000 in the east, due to daytime high suppression via cloud cover and rain. Thunderstorm distribution will greatly impact station rainfall totals, so it is harder to gather much info on that.

Given experience, if the spring stays relatively moist then the chances of an ultra hot summer are less. But if spring is warm and dry, like 2010 or 2012...or 1988 and 1991...the chances of a very hot summer increase. There are exceptions...1983 was a sluggish spring, for instance, with a cool April, but it then dried out and 1983 was hot in August and September rather than the middle of summer. The Plains are greater impacted by changes in relative moisture versus the east coast, however.

I don't know if anyone has numbers that can verify/disprove this line of thought, but just going from experience.


--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 13 2016, 03:06 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,974
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Newest JAMSTEC has a hot and dry summer for most of the eastern US... cooler out west




How does it compare to previous April forecasts?






2015 - not bad.. only off the of the general pattern by a couple hundred miles
2012 (chose because of hot summer) - bad
2011 (chose because of hot summer) - good
2010 (chose because of hot summer) - good

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Apr 13 2016, 03:07 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Apr 13 2016, 03:32 PM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,947
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





Potential for some chilly nights in the Northwoods this Summer per the latest #RRWT. #wiwx #campfiresnuggle





Lol.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phils1
post Apr 21 2016, 09:15 AM
Post #48




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 149
Joined: 23-August 11
Member No.: 25,921





"2016 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook" by Vencore Weather:
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/4/...amu9ykmmmfdtrmi

Highlights:
1) Odds favor a hot and dry summer in the Mid-Atlantic region
2) Based on analog years, it looks like Atlantic Basin tropical activity will be slightly above normal this year with approximately 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 "majors"
3) Primary target area of Atlantic Basin tropical activity should be the Southeast US, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea regions
4) Tropical system rains not likely to “help out” much in the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer months

Major factors:
1) Weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the beginning of La Nina conditions
2) Mixed sea surface temperature signals across the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico
3) Six analog years featuring similar "El Nino-to-La Nina" transition: 1954, 1964, 1988, 1998, 2007, 2010


(composite temperature anomaly map for June/July/Aug based on six analog years)
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Analog_temp_composite.png ( 159.56K ) Number of downloads: 0
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Stratocumulus
post Apr 21 2016, 02:43 PM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 841
Joined: 21-November 11
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 26,192





QUOTE(phils1 @ Apr 21 2016, 10:15 AM) *
"2016 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook" by Vencore Weather:
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/4/...amu9ykmmmfdtrmi

Highlights:
1) Odds favor a hot and dry summer in the Mid-Atlantic region
2) Based on analog years, it looks like Atlantic Basin tropical activity will be slightly above normal this year with approximately 14 named tropical storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 "majors"
3) Primary target area of Atlantic Basin tropical activity should be the Southeast US, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea regions
4) Tropical system rains not likely to “help out” much in the Mid-Atlantic region during the summer months

Major factors:
1) Weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the beginning of La Nina conditions
2) Mixed sea surface temperature signals across the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico
3) Six analog years featuring similar "El Nino-to-La Nina" transition: 1954, 1964, 1988, 1998, 2007, 2010
(composite temperature anomaly map for June/July/Aug based on six analog years)


Love it. Hope he's right! smile.gif smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Apr 22 2016, 02:56 PM
Post #50




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,974
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





mmm... I'll take it.



Compared to 2012


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Apr 23 2016, 06:23 AM
Post #51




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,847
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 22 2016, 03:56 PM) *
mmm... I'll take it.



Compared to 2012

cool.gif cool.gif cool.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 4 2016, 04:21 PM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,863
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Weather World put out a Summer forecast on last night's show. Paul Knight (ret.) returned to do the honors. Basic message for PA (and MidAtl in general)

Summary: Cool June, Hot July, Cool August. Mostly due to influence of declining El Nino transition to Nina coupled with climatology for the first part of this year.

I'm sure it's on their web or Fb page, so if I find it, I'll post it.

I have serious doubts about a cool August following a hot July - ENSO signal seemingly not enough influence to turn around like they suggest. Otherwise, the forecast is pretty well reasoned. For the record, their Winter Forecast only verified on one of three points and that one point was not relative to the temps (IOW -they busted their call, as did many) - so it's a grain of salt to be sure

Ah - found some of it on Twitter



QUOTE
Weather World
‏@WeatherWorldPSU
Paul Knight's PA summer forecast is out: coolish Jun/Aug, w/ a hot July in between. Wetter east than west #pawx


There's more on their Fb page if you're interested.





This post has been edited by Undertakerson: May 4 2016, 04:24 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post May 4 2016, 05:01 PM
Post #53




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,863
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Looks like Accu has released their own Summer-cast

Attached File  650x366_05021744_2016_summer_highlights_adc.jpg ( 98.39K ) Number of downloads: 6
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2016, 06:22 PM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,974
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 4 2016, 06:01 PM) *
Looks like Accu has released their own Summer-cast

Attached File  650x366_05021744_2016_summer_highlights_adc.jpg ( 98.39K ) Number of downloads: 6

Sucks about the west coast, but I like what I see for the east. Looks good for derecho season. The question is... will this year's forecast actually verify?
QUOTE
Hot, dry pattern to grip the Midwest and northern Plains
Dryness and heat will be another common theme in the Midwest and northern Plains states.
Heat will develop late spring and early summer across these areas and tighten its grip throughout the season.
"Actually we are seeing evidence of this in parts of the region already," Pastelok said. "If the rest of the spring works out as planned, then these areas may fall into a drought with frequent heat waves during the summer."
Indianapolis, Indiana, Chicago and Minneapolis could enter a minor to moderate drought, he said.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 4 2016, 06:22 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 5 2016, 11:32 AM
Post #55




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,421
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Paulie P says if the Euro Weeklies tonight shows the change, he's going to go with that. Otherwise stays warm for the East.

The change means "wetter" which would put the well above normal temps on hold in Summer. The SOI values dropped recently which suggests El Nino conditions which we have seen with all the moisture around lately.

"I will have a better look at the European weeklies that come in tonight. If they change from Monday, then I would suggest we will lean toward the change. I still feel the crash in the SOI value to more negative supports El Nino lingering conditions, which may be the reason for so much wetness the past week or two across the nation which then impacts temperatures. This is a different from the pattern in mid-April when it got warm and dry in the East, Ohio Valley and Great Lakes."

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post May 5 2016, 12:14 PM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,815
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 4 2016, 05:21 PM) *
Weather World put out a Summer forecast on last night's show. Paul Knight (ret.) returned to do the honors. Basic message for PA (and MidAtl in general)

Summary: Cool June, Hot July, Cool August. Mostly due to influence of declining El Nino transition to Nina coupled with climatology for the first part of this year.

I'm sure it's on their web or Fb page, so if I find it, I'll post it.

I have serious doubts about a cool August following a hot July - ENSO signal seemingly not enough influence to turn around like they suggest. Otherwise, the forecast is pretty well reasoned. For the record, their Winter Forecast only verified on one of three points and that one point was not relative to the temps (IOW -they busted their call, as did many) - so it's a grain of salt to be sure

Ah - found some of it on Twitter
There's more on their Fb page if you're interested.


You are right sir....at least for there. I think up here in New England the proximity of potential backdoor fronts would give us a different experience...I'll have to find that data.

Using BWI data it was very difficult to find where a hot July (79.0F or above) turned into a cool August (74.0F or below)...this translates into a July greater than +2 to normal turning into an August cooler than -1 to normal. I tried to go +2 to -2 but couldn't find any examples.
1986: This was a hot July (79.4F) and August was running normal until the memorable cool snap to close out the month to 73.1F. A couple record lows were set in late August 1986.
1921: Went from 80.2F (July) to 73.9F (August)
2 going back to 1871 - that's it. 1887 was very close with a change from 81.1F July to 74.1F August. The normal spread from July to Aug is a 2.0F decrease

Going the other way (cool July, warm August)?
2001 - July was very cloudy and wet, avg 72.8F. August turned hot and dry (77.0F). There was a nasty heat wave in late August which buckled some local roads.
1960 - July was 74.6F, Aug was 76.9F
2 examples there, and a few close calls.

Therefore, odds are highly against a hot July being followed by anything but a hot or at least normal August, at least in your neck of the woods. Odds are maybe <2% that a hot July is followed by a cool August.

I checked June versus July but found a bunch of examples where a hot June preceded a cool July and vice versa.




--------------------
Autumn 2017 - Mahomet, IL

First day with...
...Low below 40F: Oct. 16
...Frost: Oct. 25
...First sub-freezing low: Oct. 29
...Snow reported: Oct. 28

Foliage: As close to peak as we'll see here (Nov. 4)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ILStormwatcher
post May 6 2016, 11:24 PM
Post #57




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 192
Joined: 14-October 08
From: Belleville, Illinois
Member No.: 15,903





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ May 4 2016, 05:01 PM) *
Looks like Accu has released their own Summer-cast

Attached File  650x366_05021744_2016_summer_highlights_adc.jpg ( 98.39K ) Number of downloads: 6


I'm generally one to lean on the side of high heat and drought in the Midwest, but I'm think that isn't in the cards this go around, the patterns that would of favored this are breaking down or shifting, also the position of the "Ridge of Death" that big upper level high that forms every Summer in the west and central states will be farther west this year more into New Mexico and that will put the Midwest in northwesterly flow and on the 585-588 500MB DM line where MCSs love to track along. Normally it isn't a wet flow, but if southeast ridging can bump in even a little it will add juice to the fires and allow it to be more active across the corn belt into the Ohio Valley. This will keep the core heat away from the Midwest and focus it farther west into the northern plains down into the eastern Rockies. Precipitation will also average close to normal if not above for the Missouri River Valley into the mid-Ohio River Valleys. The Great Lakes will likely be on the receiving end of backdoor fronts and Canadian highs which will make for drier conditions as indicated, but the 'heat' will be more of a day thing and not extreme with crisp nights keep temps close to normal overall. Afternoons could get toasty, but humidity will be below normal for these areas.

For those in the St. Louis, MO area I'm going with the following:

June: Active with several rounds of storms and heavy rains (Above normal precipitation), Seasonable to Slightly Below normal month for temps.

July: Looks typical, ridge of death may push into Texas sending the heat and dryness closer, but think it will still be just short of St. Louis. Looking for a few to several storm/rain events and seasonable to slight above average temps. Areas along and north of I-70 will have a better shot of more rains, less south with a bit more heat. Humidity will be a bear though not expecting actual air temps reaching 100+, Heat Index though will more then make up.

August: Pattern starts flipping again, think August could be active and seasonable to start, then drier and warmer to finish, this will lead us into a mild and dry Autumn in St. Louis. Tropical remnants will be a concern this month as the ridge location will make tropical moisture more likely to spin up from the western Gulf, especially mid to late month. Going average temps and precip for the month as a whole, but watch for increasing dry times/spells.

Season overall: Close to normal temps with slightly above normal rainfall for Summers in St. Louis. Flooding is a concern in June, watch the big rivers and small rivers locally.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2016, 10:46 AM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,974
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





JAMSTEC looking good




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 11 (Last: 9/24/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 7 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post May 12 2016, 04:43 AM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,421
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Sounds like Paul thinks it will take till mid-end June for a pattern change. But then the other day he talked about the window of opportunity for heat will be end of May into early June. I guess he thinks another swinging trough is coming back after that (or just seasonable I guess).

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...l-june/57316053

Pastelok stated that some reasons for the persistent cool, wet weather during May were due to a stronger than expected blocking pattern in southeastern and western Canada and a slight bounce back from El Niño.

"El Niño was keeping the storm train active in the Pacific, while the blocking pattern was helping to funnel the rainfall into a fairly narrow corridor centered on the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states," Pastelok said.

"We are still a few weeks away from a pattern change during June," Pastelok said. "We still expect rounds of hot weather to fight back during June, July and August."

"Areas from the Midwest to the Northeast will trend progressively drier this summer as well."
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
joeman
post May 12 2016, 01:34 PM
Post #60




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 451
Joined: 6-February 08
From: CT...(Watertown)
Member No.: 13,465





SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS

BOTH OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
INDICATE A CONTINUED WEAKENING EL NINO STATE OVER THE PAST MONTH, WITH A
TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL FAVORED DURING THE LATE SPRING OR EARLY SUMMER 2016.
THE LIKELIHOOD OF LA NINA DEVELOPING THEREAFTER INCREASES QUITE RAPIDLY WITH
THE CHANCES EXCEEDING 50 PERCENT BY LATE SUMMER 2016, EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL ASSESSMENT.

THE MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2016 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
AND ALL OF ALASKA, WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING AN AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHEST FOR
SOUTHERN ALASKA, THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE ODDS EXCEED 50 PERCENT.

THE MJJ 2016 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS
OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA AND A REGION IN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. THAT
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SOUTHWARD AND THEN
EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THE GREATEST ODDS FOR ABOVE-MEDIAN SEASONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FOR
NORTHERN ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CHANCES ARE
VERY MODEST. BELOW-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

27 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 17th November 2017 - 10:01 PM