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> Long Range Fall 2016 Forecast & Discussion, El Nino to La Nina? Hurricanes? Post your fall info here!
RobB
post Aug 28 2016, 01:31 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2016, 01:48 PM) *
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Uggh. So tired of having to run the AC so much.

Bring on Autumn!
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NorEaster07
post Aug 28 2016, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Aug 28 2016, 02:31 PM) *
Uggh. So tired of having to run the AC so much.

Bring on Autumn!


Its disgusting really. Not only that but I been closing my shades as if I'm living in a cave. Misery. Can't be outside long. Cant open the windows. Ugh.

We got 1-2 days worth of happiness coming then back to misery


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weather_boy2010
post Aug 29 2016, 09:38 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Aug 28 2016, 02:09 PM) *
Its disgusting really. Not only that but I been closing my shades as if I'm living in a cave. Misery. Can't be outside long. Cant open the windows. Ugh.

We got 1-2 days worth of happiness coming then back to misery


Attached File  Map3.jpg ( 248.82K ) Number of downloads: 2


I'm right there with you. I come home from work every afternoon and feel like I've walked into a cave. Can't wait until late October when 70s and 80s are more the exception than the norm.

Definitely makes me wonder how long this pattern will last and whether we can break it heading into winter.
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alczervik
post Aug 29 2016, 10:21 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Aug 28 2016, 01:48 PM) *
blink.gif




Bring on the reds. This has been the best summer we have had in a long time.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 29 2016, 12:40 PM
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The CFS forecast for September has almost completely flipped in the past week. It lost the Aleutian low and has been replaced with a massive Aleutian ridge






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 30 2016, 12:28 PM
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How about 40 degree highs in Montana in September?






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 31 2016, 11:41 AM
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Could be some Fall-like severe weather with a pattern like this. Heck, there'd be severe weather with this pattern at pretty much any time of the year. What a good pattern for it. Love seeing seasonal transitions... especially when a robust SE ridge is in place.









--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Aug 31 2016, 06:52 PM
Post #48




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Canadian and/or Alaskan wildfire smoke plume has engulfed the Plains




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 1 2016, 07:45 AM
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Fall 2016 in the CPC eyes....
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 1 2016, 07:47 AM
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summer like football
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 3 2016, 12:08 AM
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Nina forcing is forecast to continue through September. If I'm not mistaken, looks like the forcing will also continue to support an active Atlantic given other conditions not being an inhibitor (dry Saharan layer? Something like that)



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Sep 3 2016, 12:10 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 3 2016, 11:50 PM
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GFS keeps trying to drop trough after trough into the east around mid-month. We'll see how this goes.


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Sep 4 2016, 11:51 AM
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How about a comparison?


Feb 8, 2016 NorEaster with snow VS Sept 4, 2016 Post-Tropical Hermine without Rain.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 6 2016, 12:48 PM
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What's a better way to start Meteorological Fall than a 90 knot negatively tilted trough?




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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weather_boy2010
post Sep 6 2016, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Sep 6 2016, 12:48 PM) *
What's a better way to start Meteorological Fall than a 90 knot negatively tilted trough?




That trough spins up a gnarly western GLC...

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png ( 168.91K ) Number of downloads: 2


Too early for a thread?

This post has been edited by weather_boy2010: Sep 6 2016, 02:40 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Sep 6 2016, 05:34 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Sep 6 2016, 03:32 PM) *
That trough spins up a gnarly western GLC...

Attached File  gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png ( 168.91K ) Number of downloads: 2


Too early for a thread?

Yup sad.gif


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 6 (Last: 7/22/17)
Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17)
Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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NorEaster07
post Sep 7 2016, 05:28 AM
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Should be fun comparing soon. Here's a look at the 850mb temps and Upper Level Jet stream pattern this morning..

If you want cold you need thoughs troughs to start digging down into Canada so the Polar Air can bleed down in it. Next week we start to see this as the Vortex comes closer but it moderates a lot. Also need the Hudson Bay to freeze over eventually. Baby steps. Still early.

That's a lot of cold air building in the Arctic




Just to show you... here's next week. See the position of the Vortex difference? Wont be an extremely cold trough into the U.S, its only September but nice to see the Vortex making a visit to North America. (means nothing for winter, still early)


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 7 2016, 07:25 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 7 2016, 05:28 AM) *
Should be fun comparing soon. Here's a look at the 850mb temps and Upper Level Jet stream pattern this morning..

If you want cold you need thoughs troughs to start digging down into Canada so the Polar Air can bleed down in it. Next week we start to see this as the Vortex comes closer but it moderates a lot. Also need the Hudson Bay to freeze over eventually. Baby steps. Still early.

That's a lot of cold air building in the Arctic
http://i.imgur.com/EfwhKjb.jpg[/img]


Just to show you... here's next week. See the position of the Vortex difference? Wont be an extremely cold trough into the U.S, its only September but nice to see the Vortex making a visit to North America. (means nothing for winter, still early)


[img]http://i.imgur.com/uVgs1WB.jp]

Looks like Alaska is pretty chilly now and then....wonder how long its been like that....should make for a good season end to "Gold Rush" later this year for any other watchers laugh.gif
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NorEaster07
post Sep 7 2016, 07:55 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 7 2016, 08:25 AM) *
Looks like Alaska is pretty chilly now and then....wonder how long its been like that....should make for a good season end to "Gold Rush" later this year for any other watchers laugh.gif


lol. Looks like Anchorage finally got the break. Gees.


"Anchorage's run of consecutive days with a high of 60F+ ended today at 90 days."

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/...964651722092544

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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 7 2016, 08:08 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 7 2016, 07:55 AM) *
lol. Looks like Anchorage finally got the break. Gees.
"Anchorage's run of consecutive days with a high of 60F+ ended today at 90 days."

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/...964651722092544


blink.gif that's unbelievable
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