 The Organic Forecasting Method, Ongoing research, analysis, and forecasting based on the OFM |
AccuWeather.com Forums > Weather Forums > Current Weather - United States > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts  |
 Jul 2 2016, 06:57 AM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 2,863 Joined: 29-June 11 From: Oshkosh, WI Member No.: 25,792  |
The Organic Forecasting Method
Framework Utilize initialized conditions around the globe to formulate medium and long range forecasts for the contiguous United States. Goal Forecast skill of upper-air and surface weather trends. Testing Bering Sea Rule (BSR) East Asia Rule (EAR) Southern Oscillation Index Delta (SOID) Recurring Rossby Wave Train (RRWT) http://blog.organicforecasting.com/ http://www.organicforecasting.com/ This post has been edited by OSNW3: Aug 23 2016, 09:34 PM -------------------- |
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Jul 2 2016, 11:12 AM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 10,403 Joined: 28-October 11 From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581') Member No.: 26,143 |
QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jul 2 2016, 08:03 AM)  Potential heat for the Ohio River Valley...   New overlay map?  Any "significant" changes from the older version?
-------------------- Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"
Current Season: 44" Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63" Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼" Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½" ** "MoM" Certified ** |
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Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 7,463 Joined: 15-February 13 From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft. Member No.: 28,288 |
Guess this is the place for this now.
SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3? 
Screenshot_2016_07_14_17_32_18.png ( 282.63K )
Number of downloads: 1https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/ This post has been edited by MaineJay: Jul 14 2016, 04:39 PM -------------------- The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein |
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Jul 15 2016, 01:07 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 37,822 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.  Organicforecasting Blog Organicforecasting data 89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Aug 15 2016, 10:17 AM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 37,822 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jul 14 2016, 04:31 PM) Guess this is the place for this now. SOI drops 36.4 over two days. So severe weather August 3?
Screenshot_2016_07_14_17_32_18.png ( 282.63K )
Number of downloads: 1https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonal...30daysoivalues/ Unfiltered reports are 125 for the 3rd and 104 for the 4th. -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. Organicforecasting Blog Organicforecasting data 89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Aug 21 2016, 08:14 PM
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,773 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Tn Member No.: 17,230 |
Interesting anyways
The_Organic_Forecasting_Method__BSR_H5_Maps.png ( 737.47K )
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Numerical_Model_Prediction___Tropical_Tidbits.png ( 384.67K )
Number of downloads: 1This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Aug 21 2016, 08:15 PM -------------------- 1"
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Aug 21 2016, 08:32 PM
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#7
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,228 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
GFS is the land of cutoffs. 4 cut-off systems in the North Pacific
-------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17) Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17) Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Aug 29 2016, 11:40 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,228 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
(I assume this is replacement for the old multi-year thread?)
Bit of an oddity going on in the west Pacific. A typhoon has recurved away from Japan, and is currently just off Japan's coast. Instead of the typical sling toward the Bering, it's curving into Asia where it combines with a large closed trough. This trough amplifies and quickly retrogrades. Current:  It's where the 974mb is noted. Notice the isobars are much tighter on the northeast side than the southwest side. I assume that's some effects of the typhoon lingering.  Should mean a shot of cool weather around August 6-7, no? None of the models are seeing it, and the agreement about the pattern is impressive.  I assume the final turn toward Asia is the culprit. This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Aug 29 2016, 11:42 PM -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 - ILN Severe Weather Climatology 2017 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 6 (Last: 7/22/17) Marginal risks: 17 (Last: 7/21/17) Slight risks: 12 (Last: 7/22/17) Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17) Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png |
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Sep 2 2016, 05:40 PM
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 633 Joined: 19-January 11 From: Bloomington, IN Member No.: 25,152 |
QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 23 2016, 10:52 PM) #Typhoon and #Hurricane via the East Asia Rule and the ECMWF. #EAR   https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/767831463945469952 Can the BSR and EAR really see a hurricane out that far in advance? Seems like the dynamics for the Hurricane come from a much different place. New to the organic forecasting stuff so just curious! |
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Sep 30 2016, 02:32 AM
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#10
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 37,822 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. Organicforecasting Blog Organicforecasting data 89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 28th July 2017 - 01:41 AM |