 Long Range Spring 2017 Outlooks and Discussion, Share thoughts, forecasts, trends, excitement, anxiety here. |
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 Feb 23 2017, 07:46 AM
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#41
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864  |
GFS6z data for NYC.
Just when I thought the mid levels would stay above freezing, nope. Normal is -3°C though but still. Negative teens and 20s coming?? Snowstorm around March 6-8th timeframe? 568DAM to 498DAM. lolol 
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Feb 24 2017, 06:33 PM
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#42
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
Euro 850mb temps Saturday 4th. Spring is over?
 Here was the 850mb temps this morning Feb 24th. +10C airmass was nice while it lasted. 
This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 24 2017, 06:33 PM |
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Feb 25 2017, 03:47 AM
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#43
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 22,067 Joined: 21-April 14 From: Athens, Ohio Member No.: 29,453 |
Best looking EML of the year (so far) goes to...
 FYI, there was a supercell <100 miles to the west of the sounding location. 
This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 25 2017, 03:55 AM -------------------- Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)
Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley: - The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more) - The 2012 "Super" Derecho - The Great Blizzard of 1978 2018 Weather for Cincinnati Days >90°: 0 (Last: 9/24/17) Days <0°: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7°) Marginal risks: 2 (Last: 4/2/18) Slight risks: 1 (Last: 2/24/18) Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17) Moderate risks: 1 (Last: 4/3/18) High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13) |
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Feb 25 2017, 12:46 PM
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#44
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Not bad...
R+1 R+2 obviously will perform better here. (rMultivariate 1 uses the present oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 2 uses the previous oscillation multivariate correlation wave(s) to select oscillation analogs. rMultivariate 1 + 2 represents the analogs of the two methods blended together.)  BSR  GFS 
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Feb 25 2017, 12:54 PM
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#45
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
I'll post these in both Spring and Winter long range thread until March 1st.
2/25 12Z GEFS...Not shockingly has backed off day 11 to 15 cold
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gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.82K )
Number of downloads: 1
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 108.08K )
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gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 106.87K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Feb 25 2017, 12:55 PM
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#46
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
QUOTE LarryCosgrove@LarryCosgrove 4m4 minutes ago
GFS. GGEM series, almost on cue, have discarded any chance at anything more than transient cold shots in the Midwest and Northeast. |
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Feb 25 2017, 03:14 PM
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#47
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Feb 25 2017, 03:15 PM
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#48
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
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Feb 26 2017, 08:40 AM
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#49
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
2/26 0Z NAEFS and GEFS:
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naefs.png ( 70.64K )
Number of downloads: 1
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.92K )
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gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 108.57K )
Number of downloads: 3
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 110.12K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Feb 26 2017, 08:46 AM
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#50
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
2/26 0Z 8 to 10 DAY 500MB MEAN looks quite zonal..
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Feb 26 2017, 12:36 PM
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#51
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Weatherboy article
QUOTE If the forecast comes to fruition, such a ridge over the central US will be associated with incredible warmth. Temperatures in the 80s and even 90s will be common for much of the southern and central Plains as well as the adjacent Mississippi valley region. Renken adds that the configuration of this warm air mass will be slightly different, which could have implications for New England. “There is a difference between this upcoming ridge and the one that was associated with all the warmth of the past few weeks as it will be centered a bit further to the west. This will leave the Northeast, particularly New England, more at risk of some backdoor cold fronts that will hold back the warming the more northeast one is.” But with lack of snowcover, anomalously warm southern Canada, and a gradually higher warming sun angle, cold shots for New England likely won’t be too long nor too harsh. “It should only be a matter of time until the warmth from the ridge across the central US is pushed eastward thanks to a continued unusually strong Pacific jet. So while New England may be cooler longer, they too will warm.”, Renken said.
-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Feb 26 2017, 12:53 PM
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#52
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
2/26 12Z GEFS:
Attached File(s)
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_1.png ( 112.96K )
Number of downloads: 3
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_6.png ( 109.71K )
Number of downloads: 3
gfs_ens_T2maMean_namer_11.png ( 109.97K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Feb 26 2017, 01:42 PM
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#53
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
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Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM
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#54
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 |
Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton!
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-------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
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Feb 26 2017, 02:04 PM
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#55
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,329 Joined: 29-June 10 From: Northeast Ohio Member No.: 23,068 |
Going green! It's the wonder of nature baby!! he's in it for the money not the science. RIP Bill
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM)  Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton! |
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Feb 26 2017, 02:22 PM
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#56
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM) Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton! Look at the Spotter Network tribute. Lining up their geo-locations to display BP 
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Feb 26 2017, 02:23 PM
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#57
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
It was also a sad passing of Phillip Seymour Hoffman. Stupid drugs
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Feb 26 2017, 03:05 PM
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#58
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
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Feb 26 2017, 04:57 PM
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#59
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 43,020 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
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Feb 26 2017, 05:14 PM
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#60
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 18,231 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 26 2017, 02:02 PM) Let's take a moment to remember Bill Paxton! Wow this is a sad day. RIP Bill. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:
# of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings:1 |
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 26th April 2018 - 12:41 AM |