Stratospheric/ Ozone Information and Discussion 2016/17, Daily PV talk and model discussion Options

[Weatherjunkie]

Glad to see this thread pop up. A little late this season but it'll be something to look forward to in the future.

Watch Asia/Siberia as a +Mountain Torque event is building. Would like to see those +temp anomalies penetrate the arctic. Sharp temp rises will help disrupt the westerlies. Going to need a few repeated efforts to weaken the PV and I'm not sure we'll be able to in time to save the winter in the E US. Western and Central US peeps shouldn't really care one way or the other.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...emp10anim.shtml

[so_whats_happeni...]

Glad to see this thread pop up. A little late this season but it'll be something to look forward to in the future.

Watch Asia/Siberia as a +Mountain Torque event is building. Would like to see those +temp anomalies penetrate the arctic. Sharp temp rises will help disrupt the westerlies. Going to need a few repeated efforts to weaken the PV and I'm not sure we'll be able to in time to save the winter in the E US. Western and Central US peeps shouldn't really care one way or the other.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intr...emp10anim.shtml

Thanks for the post will continue this hopefully for each year and we can add to the discussions each year. Ill leave the site URL for each season in my signature area for people to check out then.

As you stated there needs to be multiple attempts at bringing this PV down with still a decent wQBO present sustaining the PV strength.

Not sure if I believe the models this far out but some very interesting signs. As many have posted we get a nice pulse from the Atlantic as we still have the PAC wave placement, not as strong as once before but gives a nice looking wave 2 attack.

 gfs_Tz10_nhem_3.png ( 179.17K ) Number of downloads: 0


As we progress further along the Atlantic wave gives a nice knock to the PV and get elongation of the PV at this point winds would have to take a bit of a hit and the temps would start to rise. The PAC wave is still there but in a weakened state probably some nice cold entering into EURASIA region. A warming event seems to take off from possibly the +AAM event taking shape and helps reinvigorate the PAC wave while the Atlantic side wanes.

 gfs_Tz10_nhem_15.png ( 185.18K ) Number of downloads: 0


We see one nice warming taking place from Jan 21st -25th before another stronger warming takes place around the 27th and the PAC wave enters into western Canada (Canadian warming??) and we see a strong surge of warming taking place over the western Arctic (north of Alaska) region at 10hPa that may just unleash some cold, cold air into the U.S. where exactly it hits this far out is uncertain but the signs are there, atleast aloft, for cold to spill in. Not really seeing a "split" per se but this can still be decent I feel for enhancing winter activity in the U.S.

 gfs_Tz10_nhem_29.png ( 177.52K ) Number of downloads: 0


While the Euro only goes out to 240 it looks as though it has a fairly similar progression through this time when comparing to the GFS. I want to take a look at the surface to see if I can pick out what may be causing this as well as jet level too.

[jdrenken]

This is what I have to put up with on a normal basis. lol @_NEweather on his FB account here.

[so_whats_happeni...]

We are starting to see some model discrepancy popping up as we know so far things have evolved, from both models, fairly similarly but now toward the medium/long range as we see the warming really taking place the Euro and the GFS seem to be handling how things progress differently.

Ill only go to hour 240 for GFS and Euro since the Euro only goes to 240. We seem to have multiple pushes of warming taking place at 10mb.

Initial warming:
 h.png ( 177.9K ) Number of downloads: 0


Second warming:
 i.png ( 176.69K ) Number of downloads: 0


Third warming:
 j.png ( 176.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


As we move along we see how this translates nice warming over the poles but not quite to the territory of a SSW the warming is there but the reversal of winds does not quite come.

 k.png ( 171.41K ) Number of downloads: 0

[so_whats_happeni...]

Wanted to throw this in a different post but with the Euro we see a different evolution take place:


 ecmwf10f96.gif ( 119.29K ) Number of downloads: 0

 ecmwf10f168.gif ( 119.58K ) Number of downloads: 0

 ecmwf10f240.gif ( 116.55K ) Number of downloads: 0


It seems as though with the Euro with the final large warming the model tries to produce a wave and try to give the PV a squeeze. Wave 2 activity? It is not in an ideal location for such a thing to occur but the winds show possibly a nice reversal taking place toward the end of the run. This only seems to take place at the 10mb level so again not a true SSW as this doesnt downwell much from here into the lower portions of the strat.

 U___lat_p_70N_90N_zm.pdf ( 108.45K ) Number of downloads: 2


Still a lot can evolve differently as this pushes close to a week away but as of now I would say wave 1 still seems to be the case warming aloft not making it much past 30-50mb and then what looks to possibly be a return to a normal state of the PV but at a fairly weakened mess. One thing that could very well be keeping this from occurring is the QBO which is still at this point remaining fairly set in a WQBO phase, still.

[ClicheVortex2014]

I'm the wrong person to ask. CV is pretty knowledgeable in that department, and non-biased as well. I've tried to form a better understanding of SSW events in recent years, however mid January through February seems to be agenda-driven wishcasting season on just about every front imaginable, so there's not much knowledge to be gained by reading the posts of even the most qualified LR winter forecasters. This is the time of year where I look at models and telleconnections, and opt to come to my own conclusions with what I know of them. Reading tweets and what not only creates confusion this time of year, as more professionals seem more concerned about driving up the price of heating oil futures than anything else. It's a sad, pathetic state of affairs if you ask me.

There's a long string of SSWs that'll happen in the next week that cross over the Pole. The zonal winds at 10mb get very close to reversing (thus making it a major SSW event), but never actually manage... at least in the latest run.

The fact that the Stratospheric warmings cross over the Pole makes sure that the PV stays in the Eastern Hemisphere. It's forecast to stay stationed over Finland/Barents sea. This is the thing that makes me uncertain about the future for us. The PV is far away from us... but that, theoretically, doesn't necessarily mean the Tropospheric PV will be far away from us as well. The Tropospheric PV could split and affect us.

Due to the relatively warm temps/high heights over the Pole in the Stratosphere, one thing that I think is certain is that we'll see -AO/-NAO for at least the first half of February. Again, that doesn't guarantee it'll be cold in the east US. The -AO/-NAO just tell you that the cold is not at the Pole... it's somewhere in the mid-latitudes. We've seen many cases where we have a -AO/-NAO but a warm US. I believe we've seen this case a few times this winter.

Toward the end of the 10 day period, heat fluxes look to shift back to being equatorward, which implies a strengthening PV. Stratospheric warmings may continue, but they won't do much for weakening the PV.



Another thing to note is that the PV doesn't stretch or split at any level throughout the period. It just stays in the circular shape. That's just another unusual factor about this case.

To put it simply... I expect -AO/-NAO and at least some chance for cold weather through the first half of February. The weather in the US should be volatile, and I don't expect any nonsense like February 2015.

This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 28 2017, 04:17 PM

[ClicheVortex2014]

Thanks, and good write-up as well!

I try

[so_whats_happeni...]

Since not many updates here i'll update later but was talking with a fellow met at work, I believe he works at WPC, quickly showed a model run believe it might have been the GFS (06z) but showed the warming we are currently going through with another shot of decent warming coming around Feb 7th. The upper level wave holding true over the Alaska/Canada region, but towards the end of the run shows the relaxation of the wave and a return of the PV, at a weakened state certainly, back over the pole with still a wave representation around the Alaska region and also possibly a second wave trying to get going in the European region (Scandinavia) maybe leading to something down the road? This was the first time I have seen this feature pop up and it is rather far out (LR timeframe) but none the less we started to see this type of warming quite far in advance so the real idea will be to see if this continues on future runs or just was a quick pop idea.

[MaineJay]

I figure QBO stuff should go here. Looks like we are at a westerly max right now, it's going to be interesting watching its behavior following it's odd skipping of the easterly phase.

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 qbo_wind.jpg ( 894.63K ) Number of downloads: 2

[so_whats_happeni...]

I figure QBO stuff should go here. Looks like we are at a westerly max right now, it's going to be interesting watching its behavior following it's odd skipping of the easterly phase.

 figt3.gif ( 20.81K ) Number of downloads: 0


 qbo_wind.jpg ( 894.63K ) Number of downloads: 2

Absolutely we can bring in talks about MJO/QBO and any others that help to explain the Strato PV developments that could translate down and then I feel we should then head over to LR for talks like that. I just don't feel we should bring in talks about storm systems or localized events to cloud up the thread, that's why we have LR for and regional threads to discuss storms. Now if we get an outbreak of cold or vice versa and it is affecting or going to affect the PV or driven by the PV then more info can definitely be placed here.

Social media tweets or posts are welcome talking about nacreous clouds is welcome, articles or anything else are always welcome. Want to see this actually help people learn as well as have good discussion in here about the PV. I get posting in the LR thread but not many even talk about it outside of maybe 5 people lol. Cliche posted a nice write-up on the PV in the LR thread that I saw.

I hope to at least bring this back every year as it seems it could beneficial to talk about and have a catalog we can reference when we ever have questions or want to see what happened in years past.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 29 2017, 09:17 AM

[ClicheVortex2014]

So close to a reversal at 10mb in 24 hours! Less than fourth of 1 m/s away.We might get it, but it certainly won't last long.



By day 10, Stratosphere almost goes back to normal. Heat fluxes turn back to the equator and wane in strength. Back to a +AO in the Stratosphere.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 31 2017, 11:22 PM

[ClicheVortex2014]

There ya have it. The (brief) zonal wind reversal.

[Mid Tn. Man]

The GFS wants to do the split.GEFS tries but don't quite get there

 GFS_Model___Tropical_Tidbits.png ( 457.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

[grace]

Here's a bookmark everyone will want!

This is new info...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/


Thanks to Amy Butler, who is:

Atmospheric Scientist at CIRES/NOAA ESRL, strat dynamics/chemistry-climate, Weather & Climate enthusiast, Colorado native.

https://twitter.com/DrAHButler

[so_whats_happeni...]

The GFS wants to do the split.GEFS tries but don't quite get there

 GFS_Model___Tropical_Tidbits.png ( 457.37K ) Number of downloads: 0

Ha well does not look to be the case as of now. Looks like we will have another warming/mountain torque event starting around this time frame with a minor pulse and then what looks to be a bigger pulse around the 21st-22nd to knock the PV back over to the Europe region.

 gfs_Tz10_nhem_21.png ( 166.7K ) Number of downloads: 0


Very similar in the way things have evolved thus far this season. With PV gaining some strength ahead of this and getting dislodged. I would assume similar results would occur with this from the recent event where it looks like the European region would get the 'brunt' of the cold as well as probably the Alaska/NW Canada region that would follow, it would look to follow the warming by about 2 weeks maybe more so since this progression again will be slightly different then the last. This go around there may not be quite the unleash over there as the PV seems still fairly stacked from 100mb to 10mb over in the European side as with the last event there was stretching of the vortex from disruptions in the troposphere helping aid as well.

The berlin wall (euro) also shows a fairly similar progression with the PV. This seems to match fairly well with the impending MJO wave from the Maritime/IO region progressing to about the dateline through the mid to late month.

[so_whats_happeni...]

Here's a bookmark everyone will want!

This is new info...

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/
Thanks to Amy Butler, who is:
https://twitter.com/DrAHButler

Cool another thing Ill have to check out as well. Gonna tackle a lot of things over the spring/summer.

[ClicheVortex2014]

GFS and Euro are both showing robust SSWs around day 9. Still no sign of a split.



PV looks very weak at the end of the run... it's that time of year

[idecline]

GFS and Euro are both showing robust SSWs around day 9. Still no sign of a split.



PV looks very weak at the end of the run... it's that time of year

I don't know...does this imply that the lower than usual latitude "Polar" jet will continue to prevail...with warm storms coming in off the Pacific?

Um...no PV influence...no solar activity...no change in pattern...?

Just sayin'

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 14 2017, 08:13 PM

[ClicheVortex2014]

Another 10mb zonal wind reversal. But remember when some used the late January SSW/early February brief reversal as a cause for a cold mid-late February?

[ClicheVortex2014]

Interesting. The position of the Stratospheric high and low are quite similar to early February. In a side-by-side comparison, you can see how much weaker the features are now than a few weeks before. Not much longer until we retire this thread for the season.