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> 2017-2018 El Niņo watch, Forecasts and Discussions, long range.
ClicheVortex2014
post May 4 2017, 04:48 PM
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Still far out but would be funny to see this verify. El Nino SSTs are trying to emerge by itself, but getting absolutely no help from trade winds.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 4 2017, 04:50 PM


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
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scwxman
post May 8 2017, 09:32 AM
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Looking Weak



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ClicheVortex2014
post May 8 2017, 11:26 PM
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Will be interested to see the latest JAMSTEC. CFS doesn't even have an El Nino anymore, while last month's JAMSTEC has a strong Nino.

850mb wind anomaly forecast has weakened easterlies in the east (warmer anomalies in the east) and stronger easterlies in the west (cooler anomalies in the west). Nino 3.4 is right in the middle, suggesting not much change



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 10 2017, 01:08 PM
Post #124




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Poor JAMSTEC... too stuck in its own ways. Has a high-end moderate Nino... down from a high-end strong Nino.


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: May 10 2017, 01:09 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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grace
post May 11 2017, 12:30 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 10 2017, 01:08 PM) *
Poor JAMSTEC... too stuck in its own ways. Has a high-end moderate Nino... down from a high-end strong Nino.



Basically all the NMME page models have an El Nino except the CFS. some have a strong Nino
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 11 2017, 12:33 AM
Post #126




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QUOTE(grace @ May 11 2017, 01:30 AM) *
Basically all the NMME page models have an El Nino except the CFS. some have a strong Nino

Fair enough. It's funny how much of a difference each model is for lead 1 (valid June)



--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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MaineJay
post May 11 2017, 05:16 AM
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Pretty impressive SOI run here, doesn't mean much in May, but I think it's note worthy.

Attached File  Screenshot_20170511_055227.jpg ( 201.87K ) Number of downloads: 1


MEI
Attached File  comp__1_.png ( 12.07K ) Number of downloads: 1


QUOTE
With the MEI showing a sudden foray into El Niņo territory, one would expect a clear majority of key anomalies in the MEI component fields to indicate the same. Instead, we are seeing an equal number of key anomalies in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).
Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) flag warm sea surface (S) and air (A) temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific flag emerging El Niņo conditions, quite similar to last month. On the other hand, significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings indicate high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific and highly increased cloudiness © near the Philippines. Both of these anomalies indicate La Niņa conditions.


QUOTE
In the context of strong El Niņo conditions from April-May 2015 through April-May 2016, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niņo events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (March-April) MEI has increased by 0.85 standard deviations from -.08 up to 0.77, jumping up from ENSO-neutral to moderate El Niņo rankings. In fact, this increase is the largest on record for this time of year (and since 1950), bringing the recent ENSO-neutral spell to at least a temporary end.
Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and eliminating those cases when the previous three months saw a drop in the MEI, we find that five of the remaining eight cases ended up with an El Niņo event by the end of the calendar year, or more than twice the climatological odds (30%). The other three cases (1953, '80, and '81) dropped back to ENSO-neutral, while none of them flipped into La Niņa conditions (1953 did that in the following year).
Positive SST anomalies cover the eastern equatorial tropical Pacific, especially near the South American coast, while cold anomalies (below -0.5C) have disappeared altogether from the tropical Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map.



Here are the NMME plumes.

Amplitude corrected
Attached File  th.nino34.rescaling.NMME.png ( 34.53K ) Number of downloads: 0



Raw
Attached File  th.nino34.NMME.png ( 36.46K ) Number of downloads: 0


Linear inverse model

Attached File  currentgl.map.gif ( 21.42K ) Number of downloads: 0


This is a fairy high value, highest in a while, but still not an el Niņo.
QUOTE
The current (for FMA ) projection of the tropical IndoPacific SSTA pattern onto the optimal structure is 0.294 .


White el Niņo odds are likely about double the climatological *normal* it's still only a 50/50 position at best.


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grace
post May 11 2017, 07:59 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 11 2017, 12:33 AM) *
Fair enough. It's funny how much of a difference each model is for lead 1 (valid June)




I don't buy into the moderate Nino stuff. Think a weak at best but probably weak, positive ENSO that never reaches Nino.
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ClicheVortex2014
post May 13 2017, 03:52 PM
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CFS is trending to possibly cool-neutral ENSO by January.


CFS and GFS both have enhanced trades in the next week or two. Meaningful El Nino growth is unlikely in this time frame






--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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scwxman
post May 15 2017, 09:40 AM
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Warming up a tad



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StL weatherjunki...
post May 22 2017, 01:28 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 9 2017, 12:26 AM) *
Will be interested to see the latest JAMSTEC. CFS doesn't even have an El Nino anymore, while last month's JAMSTEC has a strong Nino.

850mb wind anomaly forecast has weakened easterlies in the east (warmer anomalies in the east) and stronger easterlies in the west (cooler anomalies in the west). Nino 3.4 is right in the middle, suggesting not much change

Sounds like a weak east-based Nino

Cool and wet west/dry and hot east

Break my record, play it on repeat laugh.gif


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

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ClicheVortex2014
post May 29 2017, 03:44 PM
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Lolnino




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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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grace
post Jun 2 2017, 07:22 PM
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CFS actually has slightly negative neutral now. That's quiet the change smile.gif
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scwxman
post Jun 4 2017, 08:51 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Jun 2 2017, 07:22 PM) *
CFS actually has slightly negative neutral now. That's quiet the change smile.gif


Had me curious, and yep, looking a little cool



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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 6 2017, 08:33 PM
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--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 7 2017, 07:04 PM
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Interesting

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/872592262290690048


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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MaineJay
post Jun 9 2017, 04:37 PM
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Interesting MEI update, surprising.

Attached File  comp.png ( 11.96K ) Number of downloads: 0



QUOTE
With the MEI showing a continued foray into El Niņo territory, a clear majority of key anomalies in the MEI component fields now indicate the same. Key anomalies refer to values in excess of one standard deviation, or one sigma in support of either ENSO phase (compare to loadings figure).
Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) flag high anomalously high sea level pressure (P) over the Maritime Continent, southerly wind anomalies (V) northeast of Australia, warm sea surface (S) and air (A) temperature anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and increased cloudiness near Galapagos Islands. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) indicate easterly wind anomalies (U) near Australia and off the Peruvian coast, while total cloudiness is decreased east of Hawai'i. All of these anomalies are consistent with El Niņo conditions. On the other hand, significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings indicate high sea level pressure (P) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, in one last remnant display of affinitiy to La Niņa.


QUOTE
In the original context of strong El Niņo conditions from April-May 2015 through April-May 2016, this section features a comparison figure with the classic set of strong El Niņo events during the MEI period of record.
Compared to last month, the updated (April-May) MEI has increased further by 0.69 standard deviations from 0.77 up to 1.46, jumping up from moderate to borderline strong El Niņo rankings. In fact, the increase over the last three months is the second largest on record for this time of year (exceeded only by 1997), bringing the recent ENSO-neutral spell to a more decisive end than indicated last month.
Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+6/-6) in this season, and eliminating five cases when the previous three months either saw a drop or only a modest increase of at most 0.5 standard deviations in the MEI, we find that five of the remaining seven cases ended up with a clear-cut El Niņo event by the end of the calendar year (including the Super-Niņo cases of 1997 and 2015). The two remaining cases occupied high ENSO-neutral/weak El Niņo rankings by the end of 1993 and 2014, respectively. This is a much stronger likelihood of an El Niņo outcome than last month. If one were to cast the net a bit wider in search of analogues, it is perhaps noteworthy that the next two weaker rankings in April-May are occupied by 1953 and 2012, both known for representing short-lived El Niņo events that reverted back to ENSO-neutral conditions long before their calendar years were over.
Positive SST anomalies currently cover less of the eastern equatorial tropical Pacific than last month, especially near the South American coast, while cold anomalies (below -0.5C) have almost disappeared altogether from the tropical Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html


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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 13 2017, 08:27 PM
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I'll be amazed if JAMSTEC still keeps a moderate Nino or stronger. Wouldn't rule out a weak Nino but leaning toward neutral. Not sold on a cold-neutral yet, much less Nina like the recent CFS ensembles suggest


This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jun 13 2017, 09:40 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

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idecline
post Jun 14 2017, 07:58 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Jun 9 2017, 04:37 PM) *
Interesting MEI update, surprising.

Attached File  comp.png ( 11.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html


...to my eyes...this is very convincing information as the likelihood of an "El Nino"...especially with PDO+ for the last 3 yrs.+...but alas...idee is an amateur...a reader of books...student of weather and physics...

...of course...idee is a native Californian...who was an eyewitness to the extended PDO+ of the last century wink.gif

...my semi-educated guess is for a slow-building moderate to strong 'El Nino'...will explore the angles soon...
huh.gif




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ClicheVortex2014
post Jun 14 2017, 08:01 PM
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JAMSTEC finally updated. Finally budging on the Nino. Interestingly, it has a -PDO now. Last month it almost had a -PDO, but not quite.







--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90°: 10 (Last: 8/21/17)
Marginal risks: 18 (Last: 8/11/17)
Slight risks: 14 (Last: 8/22/17)
Enhanced risks: 6 (Last: 7/7/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
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