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ILStormwatcher
Rank: Tornado
31 years old
Male
Belleville, Illinois
Born Feb-1-1987
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Weather, Astronomy, Economics, World Events, Animals (especially dogs), Vampires, Some Goth, and of Course Friends and Family!

The website listed is not my own, but I do post forecast as well as post about significant weather events there from time to time. The site is actually run by one of the St. Louis meteorologist from Fox 2, and is a fairly active community if anyone from the St. Louis, MO region wants to join.
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Local Time: Jun 19 2018, 03:36 AM
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ILStormwatcher

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28 Feb 2018
With February now closed/closing and Meteorological Spring upon us its time to look ahead to Summer in the US. Will it be a scorcher with sizzling drought, or will we see another very active hurricane season and or late season severe weather outbreaks. How many times will St. Louis hit 100 degrees or better. Will we see lots of 600 DM+ 500MB ridges? Let's discuss this and more for what's ahead for June. July, and August.

First impressions are for a drought to set up or re assert itself over the western Ohio Valley into the Missouri River Valley (especially south/central) with a wet and mild northeast and a very hot and dry west especially early before monsoon kicks in and the ridge of death shifts east into the plains/Mississippi River Valley. Tropics could get going early especially in the Gulf and Caribbean before shifting more into the middle of the Atlantic as the warmer anomalies shift north and the last traces of La Nina fade into Neutral/ENSO. Expect a couple of strikes mainly in the Gulf and perhaps in August for the east coast though if the ridge from the west shifts east enough that might protect the eastern seaboard, likewise a stronger Bermuda High could shift the track into the Gulf and Florida instead.
27 Jun 2017
"It's the one with the potential 'Mega Dome' aka a 594+ DM ridge."

NWS Hazardous Weather Outlook has officially placed a 'Excessive Heat" Hazard for the Mid-Mississippi River Valley from July 6th to the 7th.

Meanwhile most global models are showing some kind of strong 594-600DM 500MB ridge building in from that time till the 12th or so over the central states, spreading east into the corn belt. Bring excessive heat combined with 'Corn Sweat' as corn nears maturity, farther compounding heat index problems and creating 80*F dewpoints in places during this time.
2 Jun 2017
Looks increasingly likely that our first true blue heatwave for much of the nation is on tap for late next week into pretty much all of the following along with generally dry conditions for the heartland into the plains. Core of the heat according to the GFS and CFS is pointing towards the plains with the core shifting to the Mississippi River Valley towards the Day 10 to 14 period. Widespread 90s and even 100s could be on tap with the central plains into the mid-Mississippi River Valley most likely to cash in on the triple digit heat.

Feel free to post future model runs/predictions, and once we get closer observations here. Including graphics, charts, etc.

PS: GFS hinting at 600DM ridge in it's 12Z Friday run?
31 Jan 2017
It's only 141 days from the start of Summer, 121 if you start at Meteorological Summer (June 1st). This Summer has some significance at it could or at least was forecasted at one point that the sea ice in the Arctic would melt entirely for the first time. Seems like we're on pace to be at least close to that.

As for the Northern Hemisphere landmasses particularly North America, parts of Europe, and Russia it could be a very warm to hot one which may rival the notoriously hot and dry Summer of 2012. Looks like some similarities in the pattern are showing up. A mild winter across North America and a weakening La Nina going to ENSO (neutral) with a negative PNA which should shift to neutral to possibly positive by Summer's end. NAO/AO also should be trending positive to neutral. All of these things should help contribute to a very hot and in some place bone dry Summer. Tropics could be interesting however especially mid to late season despite the dissipating Nina.

On the USA looking for the heat dome to build across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley with several strong to intense MCS traveling on it's perimeter into the Great Lakes down to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with some action across the northern Plains. Long range outlooks are out as to where the strongest drought if it develops will sit, but if one where to go with my ideas it would put Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois, Missouri into Kansas south into Arkansas, Texas, and Oklahoma in the thick of it. In these regions several brief intense heatwaves or a few long duration heatwaves are possible with multiple 100+ degree days possible leading to a very high cooling demand along with water due to the heat and building flash drought. Southeast should come out wet from tropical activity and a few stalled backdoor fronts on the eastern side of the mean ridge. West could see some troughing action keeping a lid on temps there and depending on how active the eastern Pacific is; really help the Monsoon and provide at least localized continued drought relief. New England and the Pacific Northwest has a shot at facing a cool but damp Summer.

Also of major importance this Summer is the August 21st Total Solar Eclipse over parts of the lower 48 states namely Oregon to Missouri to South Carolina with a partial visible from most of the rest of North America. Hopefully the ridge dome is massive and strong during that time period so that everyone can catch a good view. Might be a tough one though as there is signs that the pattern could be shifting to a milder and wetter pattern towards the latter half of August into early September.
5 Feb 2016
La Nina building in, lackluster Winter in the Mid-Mississippi River Valley and snow in the Carolinas, shifting PDO to neutral to negative and positive AO/NAO trends so far herald a 2012 like Summer ahead especially for the heartland into the southern plains? Also will the tropics play a bigger role this Summer then last?
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