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> Long Range Winter 2010/2011 Outlooks, All Winter Questions Here - Nov-Mar
BtownWxWatcher
post Sep 22 2009, 02:49 PM
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The reason that I have started this now is too get an early picture of what the Winter of 2010-2011 will be with the telleconnectors of the last winter, in this case it would be 2009-2010.

Here were the SST/ENSO value[s] of the Winters following an El Nino.

1951-1952 [Weak]=1952-1953 Neutral
1957-1958 [Strong]=1958-1959 Neutral
1963-1964 [Moderate]=1964-1965 La Nina [Moderate]
1965-1966 [Strong]=1966-1967 Neutral
1968-1969 [Moderate]=1969-1970 El Nino [Weak]
1969-1970 [Weak]=1970-1971 La Nina [Moderate]
1972-1973 [Strong]=1973-1974 La Nina [Strong]
1976-1977 [Weak]=1977-1978 El Nino [Weak]
1977-1978 [Weak]=1978-1979 Neutral
1982-1983 [Strong]=1983-1984 Neutral
1986-1987 [Moderate]=1987-1988 El Nino [Moderate]
1987-1988 [Moderate]=1988-1989 La Nina [Strong]
1991-1992 [Strong]=1992-1993 Neutral
1994-1995 [Moderate]=1995-1996 La Nina [Weak]
1997-1998 [Strong]=1998-1999 La Nina [Moderate]
2002-2003 [Strong]=2003-2004 Neutral
2004-2005 [Weak]=2005-2006 Neutral
2006-2007 [Moderate]=2007-2008 La Nina [Moderate]

Out of all of them

2 Strong La Nina's
4 Moderate La Nina's
1 Weak La Nina's
8 Neutral
2 Weak El Nino's
1 Moderate El Nino's
0 Strong El Nino's

7 La Nina Years
8 Neutral Years
3 El Nino Years

Have followed an El Nino


So with that, past telleconnectors and climatology would have a higher chance of supporting a Neutral or La Nina event for the Winter of 2010-2011.

Theo [Astromet], Matt [AtownWxWatcher], Brisr, anyone, want to chime in on this?

I won't be really looking at this until around March.

Note to Mods:This should remain the official thread for the Winter of 2010-2011.

This thead can be left open just like the 2009-2010 thread, or be closed when Winter arrives

This post has been edited by BtownWxWatcher: Jul 26 2010, 12:51 PM


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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 22 2009, 02:56 PM
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We're talking about winter of 2010-11 already?! We barely even got to winter 2009-10!

My first thoughts for the ENSO are a weak to moderate la nina for the winter, but it's just a thought, way too early to start talking in details.
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Removed_Member_max140_*
post Sep 22 2009, 03:00 PM
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to early dude, we havent even stated the winter of 2009 !
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BtownWxWatcher
post Sep 22 2009, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 22 2009, 03:56 PM) *
We're talking about winter of 2010-11 already?! We barely even got to winter 2009-10!

My first thoughts for the ENSO are a weak to moderate la nina for the winter, but it's just a thought, way too early to start talking in details.



QUOTE(max140 @ Sep 22 2009, 04:00 PM) *
to early dude, we havent even stated the winter of 2009 !

I do admit that it is way to early for detailed forecasting, though the reason why I opened this up is because so Astrometeoroligists and good forecasters could see what telleconnectors and climatology have in store, I think that the comparision I did is interesting.

All of the questions you have for me just PM me.


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Sep 22 2009, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Sep 22 2009, 04:49 PM) *
The reason that I have started this now is too get an early picture of what the Winter of 2010-2011 will be with the telleconnectors of the last winter, in this case it would be 2009-2010.

Here were the SST/ENSO value[s] of the Winters following an El Nino.

1951-1952 [Weak]=1952-1953 Neutral
1957-1958 [Strong]=1958-1959 Neutral
1963-1964 [Moderate]=1964-1965 La Nina [Moderate]
1965-1966 [Strong]=1966-1967 Neutral
1968-1969 [Moderate]=1969-1970 El Nino [Weak]
1969-1970 [Weak]=1970-1971 La Nina [Moderate]
1972-1973 [Strong]=1973-1974 La Nina [Strong]
1976-1977 [Weak]=1977-1978 El Nino [Weak]
1977-1978 [Weak]=1978-1979 Neutral
1982-1983 [Strong]=1983-1984 Neutral
1986-1987 [Moderate]=1987-1988 El Nino [Moderate]
1987-1988 [Moderate]=1988-1989 La Nina [Strong]
1991-1992 [Strong]=1992-1993 Neutral
1994-1995 [Moderate]=1995-1996 La Nina [Weak]
1997-1998 [Strong]=1998-1999 La Nina [Moderate]
2002-2003 [Strong]=2003-2004 Neutral
2004-2005 [Weak]=2005-2006 Neutral
2006-2007 [Moderate]=2007-2008 La Nina [Moderate]

Out of all of them

2 Strong La Nina's
4 Moderate La Nina's
1 Weak La Nina's
8 Neutral
2 Weak El Nino's
1 Moderate El Nino's
0 Strong El Nino's

7 La Nina Years
8 Neutral Years
3 El Nino Years

Have followed an El Nino


So with that, past telleconnectors and climatology would have a higher chance of supporting a Neutral or La Nina event for the Winter of 2010-2011.

Theo [Astromet], Matt [AtownWxWatcher], Brisr, anyone, want to chime in on this?

I won't be really looking at this until around March.

Note to Mods:This should remain the official thread for the Winter of 2010-2011.

I will not be looking at winter 2010-2011 until around February or March of 2010...

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Chicago Storm
post Sep 24 2009, 08:01 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Sep 22 2009, 02:49 PM) *
The reason that I have started this now is too get an early picture of what the Winter of 2010-2011 will be with the telleconnectors of the last winter, in this case it would be 2009-2010.

Here were the SST/ENSO value[s] of the Winters following an El Nino.

1951-1952 [Weak]=1952-1953 Neutral
1957-1958 [Strong]=1958-1959 Neutral
1963-1964 [Moderate]=1964-1965 La Nina [Moderate]
1965-1966 [Strong]=1966-1967 Neutral
1968-1969 [Moderate]=1969-1970 El Nino [Weak]
1969-1970 [Weak]=1970-1971 La Nina [Moderate]
1972-1973 [Strong]=1973-1974 La Nina [Strong]
1976-1977 [Weak]=1977-1978 El Nino [Weak]
1977-1978 [Weak]=1978-1979 Neutral
1982-1983 [Strong]=1983-1984 Neutral
1986-1987 [Moderate]=1987-1988 El Nino [Moderate]
1987-1988 [Moderate]=1988-1989 La Nina [Strong]
1991-1992 [Strong]=1992-1993 Neutral
1994-1995 [Moderate]=1995-1996 La Nina [Weak]
1997-1998 [Strong]=1998-1999 La Nina [Moderate]
2002-2003 [Strong]=2003-2004 Neutral
2004-2005 [Weak]=2005-2006 Neutral
2006-2007 [Moderate]=2007-2008 La Nina [Moderate]

Out of all of them

2 Strong La Nina's
4 Moderate La Nina's
1 Weak La Nina's
8 Neutral
2 Weak El Nino's
1 Moderate El Nino's
0 Strong El Nino's

7 La Nina Years
8 Neutral Years
3 El Nino Years

Have followed an El Nino


So with that, past telleconnectors and climatology would have a higher chance of supporting a Neutral or La Nina event for the Winter of 2010-2011.

Theo [Astromet], Matt [AtownWxWatcher], Brisr, anyone, want to chime in on this?

I won't be really looking at this until around March.

Note to Mods:This should remain the official thread for the Winter of 2010-2011.

It is not even a sure thing that this Winter will be a Nino. If it is, it will not be your typical Nino, as we have seen thus far.
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SnowMan11
post Sep 25 2009, 08:30 AM
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Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy tooooooooooooooooooo early for this.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Sep 25 2009, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Sep 24 2009, 10:01 PM) *
It is not even a sure thing that this Winter will be a Nino. If it is, it will not be your typical Nino, as we have seen thus far.


Very true... Before anyone should really say anything about 10/11 winter we need to watch the ENSO state this winter and then we may be able to go from there.

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Sep 25 2009, 09:18 AM


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maryland
post Sep 25 2009, 03:28 PM
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Mods. I think you should lock this.
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CrazyDon
post Sep 25 2009, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(maryland @ Sep 25 2009, 02:28 PM) *
Mods. I think you should lock this.


And I vote it remains open. There are some of us who are forward-looking enough that we would like a "beyond winter 2009/2010" thread to discuss where the following winter may be headed. We're in enough of a transitional period that our discussions would merit a separate thread from the impending winter season's discussion--that thread is bloated enough with its own details.

What can it hurt to begin discussing the factors leading into the upcoming year?

This post has been edited by CrazyDon: Sep 25 2009, 04:58 PM
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WNYLakeEffect
post Sep 25 2009, 05:14 PM
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If you don't like it, don't post here. It's not a problem now and won't be unless someone is an idiot an ruins it. If people don't want to post anything, it will drop down and be revived at the end of this coming winter.

Now let's stop debating on whether it should be open or not and just talk about the winter or forget about it until March. If you don't have anything Winter 2010/2011 to say, don't post. End of story.


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Winter 2010-11 Snow: 148.0"
Winter 2009-10 Snow: 128.3"
Winter 2008-09 Snow: 175.0"
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BriSr
post Sep 30 2009, 11:39 PM
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Winter ingress for 2010-2011

Attached File  Winter_ingress_2010_2011.gif ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 10



Uranus/Jupiter conjunct on the MC with Mercury in square brings strong, windy cold fronts. Sun/Lunar node/Pluto conjunct in a close square to meridian bringing stormy weather. Mars/Moon opp also in a close square brings stormy weather. Saturn over the NE equates to cold, stormy weather, as well. Wild weather east of the Rockies for this winter.


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Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Oct 1 2009, 12:00 AM
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QUOTE(BriSr @ Oct 1 2009, 01:39 AM) *
Winter ingress for 2010-2011

Attached File  Winter_ingress_2010_2011.gif ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 10

Uranus/Jupiter conjunct on the MC with Mercury in square brings strong, windy cold fronts. Sun/Lunar node/Pluto conjunct in a close square to meridian bringing stormy weather. Mars/Moon opp also in a close square brings stormy weather. Saturn over the NE equates to cold, stormy weather, as well. Wild weather east of the Rockies for this winter.

Well..i am not sure if i agree with the methods up above because well..thus far they have not worked out this season for a strong el nino. However...lets assume the role of going along with the above..that does not sound to me like a strong el nino like someone whom uses astro weather is predicting.
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BriSr
post Oct 1 2009, 01:40 AM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Oct 1 2009, 01:00 AM) *
Well..i am not sure if i agree with the methods up above because well..thus far they have not worked out this season for a strong el nino. However...lets assume the role of going along with the above..that does not sound to me like a strong el nino like someone whom uses astro weather is predicting.

Theo's outlook shows La Nina like conditions for the latter half of this particular Winter into Spring. Basically, these ingress charts give the weather trend for Jan-Mar, as it goes from Solstice to Equinox. I don't know how he is predicting these Nino events, but I'm just trying to interpret the weather trend as the chart shows it. Ninos are just a part of the patterns. To much focus on them, as other patterns come into play, and may overwhelm a Nino signal. Obviously the stronger the Nino, the stronger the signal. But as you have seen, this Nino is acting a little different than what has been observed. As has the Sun. And it was a very chilly Summer. He could be right, or not, on a strong one. Time will tell.


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Photo courtesy Dennis O'Hara of Northern Images Photography. Browse photos of the Duluth, and the surrounding area. Live web cam, also.

http://northernimages.smugmug.com/galleries
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post Oct 1 2009, 08:20 PM
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QUOTE(BriSr @ Sep 30 2009, 09:39 PM) *
Winter ingress for 2010-2011

Attached File  Winter_ingress_2010_2011.gif ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 10

Uranus/Jupiter conjunct on the MC with Mercury in square brings strong, windy cold fronts. Sun/Lunar node/Pluto conjunct in a close square to meridian bringing stormy weather. Mars/Moon opp also in a close square brings stormy weather. Saturn over the NE equates to cold, stormy weather, as well. Wild weather east of the Rockies for this winter.


Hi Brian,

This particular chart shows Saturn in Libra at the Nadir, and, in this position, as you correctly surmised, this equates to cold, stormy weather. Moreover, note the conjunction of Jupiter/Uranus close to the fixed star Scheat, which is very much associated with weather, and conditions at sea. At this time, in December 2010, we have nearly entered the La Nina phase I've forecasted for the Winter of 2011.
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CrazyDon
post Oct 2 2009, 05:26 PM
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QUOTE(AstroMet @ Oct 1 2009, 07:20 PM) *
Hi Brian,

This particular chart shows Saturn in Libra at the Nadir, and, in this position, as you correctly surmised, this equates to cold, stormy weather. Moreover, note the conjunction of Jupiter/Uranus close to the fixed star Scheat, which is very much associated with weather, and conditions at sea. At this time, in December 2010, we have nearly entered the La Nina phase I've forecasted for the Winter of 2011.


Theo,

Do you see any possibility for an El Nino next winter? I know what you're predicting, but from your teleconnectors, what are the chances, if any?
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post Oct 3 2009, 03:48 PM
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QUOTE(maryland @ Sep 25 2009, 05:28 PM) *
Mods. I think you should lock this.


YES lock it
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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Oct 3 2009, 04:13 PM
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I will say this much in regards to the winter of 2010-2011...I am expecting another El Nino..Strength yet to be determined but to go out on a limb.. I would be leaning towards a moderate el nino...

However..I see no reason for this thread to be locked...
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Sagebrusher
post Oct 4 2009, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(BriSr @ Oct 1 2009, 01:39 AM) *
Winter ingress for 2010-2011

Attached File  Winter_ingress_2010_2011.gif ( 17.5K ) Number of downloads: 10

Uranus/Jupiter conjunct on the MC with Mercury in square brings strong, windy cold fronts. Sun/Lunar node/Pluto conjunct in a close square to meridian bringing stormy weather. Mars/Moon opp also in a close square brings stormy weather. Saturn over the NE equates to cold, stormy weather, as well. Wild weather east of the Rockies for this winter.


Ok, I can see Jupiter having a small cyclical tidal affect on the atmosphere, but how does Pluto affect us? It's mass is only 17 percent of the moon, and it is over 30 times further from us than the Sun.
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DomNH
post Oct 4 2009, 09:39 AM
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Apparently the D8 Euro has a decent snowstorm for SNE....lol. I guess it's that time of year again - fantasy storms on the long range models.


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