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> ARCHIVE: CAT 2 HURRICANE ALEX, Saved for later searches! (2010 Atlantic Storms)
Blizzard09
post Jun 21 2010, 09:31 AM
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With 92L more-or-less gone, 93L has been declared, and currently possesses a 20% chance of tropical development. It is located in the eastern Caribbean.

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weather-major94
post Jun 21 2010, 09:45 AM
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hmm, i would bet on this one actually making it through any wind-shear, because this one just basically blew up in our faces, in the past 8 hours. 92l was to unorganized to survive, but i look at it like this, the bigger the storm, the better (for the storm, i guess). you might say that 92l had a mid level circulation, making it more organized, but organization does not just qualify to circulation.
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kab2791
post Jun 21 2010, 10:00 AM
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And so it begins...


--------------------
University of Detroit Mercy Math Minor 2009-2011
Central Michigan University Meteorology Major, GIS Minor


DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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MAC292OH10
post Jun 21 2010, 10:03 AM
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its my only day off till friday...I'll likely go into rapid fire mode with images, so more to come for sure... wink.gif

for now, 12Z early


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This post has been edited by MAC292OH10: Jun 21 2010, 10:04 AM
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Removed_Member_sub900_*
post Jun 21 2010, 10:04 AM
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Is this going to be a oil slinging monster? ohmy.gif
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 21 2010, 10:05 AM
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The ECMWF really goes to town with this system, making it a hurricane in the central Gulf next week. According to Dr. Masters, the only thing stopping this from developing in spin. Waters are at record warm levels, shear is 10kts or less. The GFS doesn't develop 93L, while other models suggest a weaker system hitting central America. NHC gives this a 20% to develop in 48 hours. Seems reasonable given where the system is. My prediction is a depression by Saturday.
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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(MAC292OH10 @ Jun 21 2010, 11:03 AM) *
its my only day off till friday...I'll likely go into rapid fire mode with images, so more to come for sure... wink.gif

for now, 12Z early


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Seems like they all agree we should/will have Alex by hour 72 as a tropical storm if not a category one hurricane, but we shall see.


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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:14 AM
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QUOTE(sub900 @ Jun 21 2010, 11:04 AM) *
Is this going to be a oil slinging monster? ohmy.gif


Could be.


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When feeling lost, follow the path of strongest warm air advection ;)
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kab2791
post Jun 21 2010, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-021

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST NEAR 16.ON 77.0W AT 23/1800Z.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:19 AM
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QUOTE(kab2791 @ Jun 21 2010, 11:15 AM) *


What exactly does this mean? huh.gif laugh.gif


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Blizzard09
post Jun 21 2010, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 21 2010, 11:19 AM) *
What exactly does this mean? huh.gif laugh.gif

Apparently recon are planning to investigate 93L.
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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(Blizzard09 @ Jun 21 2010, 11:20 AM) *
Apparently recon are planning to investigate 93L.


Ah I see, what's recon, sorry I'm a noob from Canada. laugh.gif wink.gif


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kab2791
post Jun 21 2010, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 21 2010, 11:19 AM) *
What exactly does this mean? huh.gif laugh.gif
It means recon may want to take a look at this on Wed.


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DTW Stats:
2011 Number of 90F+ days: 19
Max Temp: 100F (7/21)
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hurricanehunter
post Jun 21 2010, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 21 2010, 11:22 AM) *
Ah I see, what's recon, sorry I'm a noob from Canada. laugh.gif wink.gif


Recon aircraft possibly going to fly into invest 93, and take a look to see if it's a depression or not.
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Phased Vort
post Jun 21 2010, 10:25 AM
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Invest 93L 2KM IR:



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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:25 AM
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QUOTE(hurricanehunter @ Jun 21 2010, 11:24 AM) *
Recon aircraft possibly going to fly into invest 93, and take a look to see if it's a depression or not.


Ah OK, but what is recon?


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Torontoweather
post Jun 21 2010, 10:26 AM
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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Jun 21 2010, 11:25 AM) *
Invest 93L 2KM IR:



Looking pretty nice.


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Niyologist
post Jun 21 2010, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(Blizzard09 @ Jun 21 2010, 11:20 AM) *
Apparently recon are planning to investigate 93L.


I just realized something, if this Invest is going to enter into favorable environment, wouldn't its' strength increase exponentially?

Just think about:

Warm Waters+Low Wind Shear/Vertical Shear+High Instability=Explosive Development.

This post has been edited by Niyologist: Jun 21 2010, 10:28 AM
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Blizzard09
post Jun 21 2010, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Jun 21 2010, 11:25 AM) *
Ah OK, but what is recon?

Short for reconnaissance aircraft, aka the Hurricane Hunters.
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weather-major94
post Jun 21 2010, 10:28 AM
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the recon is a number of aircraft used by the NHC to investigate potential tropical systems.
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