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monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 13 2017, 09:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Snowing in West Chester❄️❄️⛄️
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2218252 · Replies: · Views: 288,733

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 12 2017, 09:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(RickRD @ Mar 12 2017, 09:18 PM) *
at 36 Philly getting slammed on 0Z NAM, Not even close to this on 18Z


Previous run did not include all new data which caused such a different result cool.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2215087 · Replies: · Views: 1,286,509

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 12 2017, 03:10 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


I'm seeing pretty crazy energy here and believe it or not, late season pattern changer is being suggested for more🚨❄️ We shall see. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2214112 · Replies: · Views: 1,286,509

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 10 2017, 06:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 10 2017, 05:01 PM) *
Oh my!

[attachment=321568:gfs_z500...rt_us_16.png]


Just finishing up work, wow
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2209186 · Replies: · Views: 1,286,509

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 10 2017, 01:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Henry doesn't get enough credit for this forum and it's popularity. It's a thankless job what he does and he, like bastardi, made tracking winter storms a 'thing'. Cut from the same cloth as those, I found myself getting lots of kudos and praise while also getting angry replays when things don't pan out. Happy that you guys have taken the Baton and made this place even better!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2208554 · Replies: · Views: 1,286,509

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 10 2017, 12:54 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 10 2017, 12:51 PM) *
A Monsoonevans sighting??! ohmy.gif

Must be a big un brewin

If Junkie does come back, time to yank the blower back out of storage.

wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2208524 · Replies: · Views: 1,286,509

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 5 2017, 06:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 5 2017, 07:23 PM) *
A rare Monsoon appearance. Always good to see ya bud.


Amen! Thanks for all your awesome posts.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2170270 · Replies: · Views: 17,903

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 5 2017, 06:23 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Light flurries on and off. Most recent update from 6abc

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2170267 · Replies: · Views: 17,903

monsoonevans
Posted on: Dec 31 2016, 09:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(stretchct @ Dec 31 2016, 12:49 AM) *
Not sure if it was Henry M, Bernie, Joe B or one of you guys that had a saying that a storm likes to exit where it comes in. Should have been off NJ. [attachment=308112:image.png]
I liked this run. It's different than the last few runs, with at least a stale high in place, which I thought the low would have followed. There's just nothing to make the trough go negative.



That was The big dog Henry!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2165362 · Replies: · Views: 360,413

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 25 2016, 01:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


This is definitely something to keep an eye on! The high-pressure system sitting over the Midwest and western part of the country if it can hold up, which I think it will, then I would anticipate the low coming further west. Also don't believe the strength of the Northern great lakes low-pressure system will be as strong in future models. This will also help a further west progression. Things will have to start being monitored and tonight's 00z GFS will reflect these features.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2073696 · Replies: · Views: 92,278

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 23 2016, 11:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 23 2016, 07:15 PM) *
Nice! Closeup shot around the area..


As I said previously that nam mailed this
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2073027 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 23 2016, 03:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(skidooer16 @ Jan 23 2016, 03:34 PM) *
32.5 officially here as of 3pm in Frederick, MD. Let's see how much longer it lasts!

You guys were always in my jackpot zone! Enjoy it!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2072235 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 22 2016, 09:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


View from downtown West Chester. Surprisingly quite.
Attached Image

Attached thumbnail(s)
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  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2069317 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 22 2016, 08:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(sheabird32 @ Jan 22 2016, 08:30 PM) *
I went to college @ WCU and lived there for 8ish years until I finished laugh.gif Just moved down to DE recently. I remember some great storms in WC. its a great location for storms geographically and because the town is so foot friendly. ENJOY!


Heading to Ryan's Pub now and possible stop at Pietros steak house for a late cocktail for the beautiful walk home! Live on Miner st. Your absolutely right...perfect town for a blizzard❄️🍸🤗
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2069206 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 22 2016, 08:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Jan 22 2016, 08:15 PM) *
Hey you!!! Did you relocate?

20 minutes south west of Wayne PA in west Chester PA.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2069148 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 22 2016, 08:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Intensifying here in west Chester PA. My thoughts had been we would get more SE ridging today and the low would be further south and west but looks like that didn't happen. NAM seemed to get a great start. Thinking Frederick MD up to Harrisburg gets walloped.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2069122 · Replies: · Views: 717,158

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 19 2016, 04:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


The last frame of the most recent Nam run shows what I'm talking about. Nova Scotia Greenland pressures completely dissipate which will certainly allow the further west progression. The GFS run holds that pressure together a little too long in my opinion.

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2058268 · Replies: · Views: 2,017,245

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 19 2016, 04:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Scratch that, 00Z and 12Z are more reliable with GFS. This particular 12Z not so much though...
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2058239 · Replies: · Views: 2,017,245

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 19 2016, 03:56 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


The 12 Z runs I don't put much faith in. Generally speaking the O0Z and 6Z suites are the more reliable. The key components are all still positive.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2058223 · Replies: · Views: 2,017,245

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 18 2016, 04:58 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(risingriver @ Jan 18 2016, 04:46 PM) *
Why? Thought it was the negative cut off lows that went epic on us?

What precursors can a casual fan look for to get a heads up on which way the wookie wobbles? High placement? Ridge shape out west?

I thought the big daddy hat had recently been the biggest poo pile out there?


Take a look at this hieghts map from most recent NAM run. Notice the Nova Scotia/Greenland area. The tight pressure readings are indicating perfect blocking placement and strength. The gulf low is thereby 'allowed' to take its time gathering strength and feed straight up to the benchmark. Fantastic placement IMO!

Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2055767 · Replies: · Views: 2,017,245

monsoonevans
Posted on: Dec 10 2015, 11:46 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 10 2015, 10:08 AM) *
Familiar with olyphant?

I have some relatives in olyphant🍕 Great pizza places up there. Andy's is the best! Thinking we might have some nice snow up there couple days after Christmas for our visit!❄️❄️❄️
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2038030 · Replies: · Views: 41,001

monsoonevans
Posted on: Mar 5 2015, 11:57 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


Unofficial reading from monsoon in west Chester Pennsylvania is 6 inches on the ground. Best guess is we'll have a little mid afternoon followed by a few strong bursts probably totaling close to 9 inches is my best guess❄️⛄️
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2007354 · Replies: · Views: 259,527

monsoonevans
Posted on: Feb 14 2015, 01:18 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


From The looks of it we have a very good consensus on the general idea is still ironing out the particulars.as much as it pains me to say, because I have been a long time supporter, that the EURO has been under performing and I have little confidence in it until probably Sundaynights and Mondays runs. I know it sounds crazy but I actually have had more confidence in the NAM recently. Not that it has a great record and doing things so far out but here's what its showing on it's last frame of the most recent run. Certainly been more western with the LP and the jet. If you follow trends, then this at the very least should be a system that is, if not a solid hit for the MidAtlantic regions that have been missing out, its a much closer call. Details to follow.
Attached Image
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1983556 · Replies: · Views: 341,645

monsoonevans
Posted on: Feb 5 2015, 07:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 5 2015, 04:44 AM) *
The CMC solution makes no sense, I'm trying to give it credit but it's hard. The reason why it makes no sense is that at Hr96 it actually has the strongest SHP in Canada, yet it places the warm air far too north - I see that the NAM is guilty of that as well. The CMC does that because it places the pressure of the storm (at that hour in S IN) at 4 mb stronger than any of the other models which keep the advancing SLP as a weak system in the 1008mb range.

So the CMC is probably overestimating the storm strength in the early hours - and it still lagging the pack in that it pushes the SLP off the coast and towards just n/e of Bermuda? blink.gif
[attachment=256894:CMC120.gif]
Some day, someone may convince me that this model is useful beyond D2, but I don't think anyone has a lunch big enough or a lantern bright enough to ever do that.

All the other guidance is now coming off the coast near the VA Tidewater Region but the GFS is way out in front. That is because the arctic jet is not phased at that point
[attachment=256889:f120.gif]

Well said sir, fantastic overview👏

Here's the Euro at the same time period Hr120. I'm seeing a much better consolidation of short wave energy from our SLP and this allows a close phase potential, pinning the system closer to the coast (yeah, I can hear the throng now saying its because of the SHP - I have made myself clear on what I think of that ) this allows the system to come up the coast as we obtain "capture" status.

[attachment=256890:Euro_120.gif]
So I don't have a 4 panel view of UM - but here's the cool site track view. we can see that the path is in the consensus and the placement near s/w PA and then exit off the coast is reasonably placed. The exit trajectory though looks very Euro like. I've not observed any bias with the UK relative to how it handles moisture fields at D3+, do no comment there. Again, the path is along the coast suggesting a phase or partial phase with the Arctic Jet.

[attachment=256891:83_phase1_zoom.png]
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fc...phase1.zoom.png

The CMC 4 panel is showing a weak phase at Hr 120, but it already has the slp way too strong at that point and that seems to cause it to allow the SLP to break that bond as it hits the coast. That is why it tries to drop a lobe towards Bahamas. The main packet stays back though and eventually reigns in the southeast lobe and they exit stage north at the end of the event - well off shore and influencing maybe the Maritimes.
[attachment=256892:CMC120.gif]

Lastly I wanted to put up Hr240 of the Euro - as a bonus.
[attachment=256893:f240.gif]

Well beyond this next event - another week out in the mini cycle and we see what eastern snow lover weenies dream of . Red lines and purple circles outline the upstream and downstream Rex Block in a slightly negative Omega configuration. The NAO region is teleconnected to the upper reaches of the Western Ridge structure (blue arrow) - all of which should force the multiple energies in the Jet stream branches to move in the direction indicated by the yellow arrow.

I went out this far because this storm This weekend storm sets up the block by moving into the Atl Ridge and kicking a piece of it back towards the NAO region. I believe, but can't prove yet - that this system becomes the base of the Atl Rex Block that finally plugs the currents downstream and allows the latter Jet energy to retrograde into Canada, poised there to invade the region with a hammer blow of cold, energy filled systems that would be slow to move through.

Now go enjoy your GFS model viewing. It took me so long to type this, I need another cup of coffee. tongue.gif

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1975930 · Replies: · Views: 360,333

monsoonevans
Posted on: Jan 24 2015, 07:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Moderator
Posts: 776
Joined: 11-January 08
From: Wayne, PA
Member No.: 12,210


QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 24 2015, 06:56 PM) *
You know it's on for a big one gang. A rare Monsoon Evans appearance graces our presence tonight. Good evening fine sir.


Nice to be here. I'm Chyna like the groundhog where I only pop my head out every once in a blue moon. I heard Bastardi talking about this last week so I figured I'd pay more attention. Carry-on young man!⛄️
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #1953506 · Replies: · Views: 484,583

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