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> Bering Sea Rule and Typhoon Rule and Southern Oscillation Index Delta, Forecasting based on the BSR and TR and SOID
OSNW3
post Oct 27 2015, 07:01 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 27 2015, 06:35 PM) *
Pretty nice stuff!

This could be fun to monitor mid-month...

[attachment=269419:a.jpg]

[attachment=269420:b.jpg]


Woo! Glad you think so.

Gosh I hope the code works tonight and updates the images like it did in the tests. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Oct 27 2015, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 27 2015, 07:01 PM) *
You probably seen it, but within the last week or so I seen in the blog where GL mentioned something about you'll be hearing some start talking about what's going on with Typhoons or in the Bearing Sea, can't remember which. Wondered if he was trying to jab at you guys or not.

The more all of this evolves the more confusing it becomes, for me at least laugh.gif

GL mentiins DH is still oart of the LRC team, yet they bith have their own cycles/patterns and never speak of the others. Ine is set and the othrr is 2 weeks from being set blink.gif


I haven't read anything about GL taking shots at the TR or BSR. When you put GL side by side with DH, I agree, the more confusing they both become. Their egos are mind blowing gigantic. My opinion of course. smile.gif


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WeatherMonger
post Oct 27 2015, 07:16 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2015, 07:08 PM) *
I haven't read anything about GL taking shots at the TR or BSR. When you put GL side by side with DH, I agree, the more confusing they both become. Their egos are mind blowing gigantic. My opinion of course. smile.gif


This is what I was talking about not sure how he meant it. Just thought of this thread when I read it.





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JDClapper
post Oct 27 2015, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2015, 07:56 PM) *
After a quick visual I would agree with you JDC.

If I quickly do the math in my head, seems the 3-day rate of change may be a day slow, with the bottom drop being the 7th via your AccuWx forecast image instead of the 6th like the BSR chart shows. smile.gif


Looks like just recently there started to be that few days extra lag, like you mentioned... but, considering this was forecast 18 days ago.. I'll let it slide. laugh.gif

Attached File  a.jpg ( 86.53K ) Number of downloads: 2


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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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OSNW3
post Oct 27 2015, 09:27 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 27 2015, 07:16 PM) *
This is what I was talking about not sure how he meant it. Just thought of this thread when I read it.


Thank you for sharing.

From cycle to cycle, one who followed the 2014-15 LRC would assume that simply comparing back to back weather patterns at lengths of 44-50 days would have showed a connection. But they did not.




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OSNW3
post Oct 27 2015, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 27 2015, 08:04 PM) *
Looks like just recently there started to be that few days extra lag, like you mentioned... but, considering this was forecast 18 days ago.. I'll let it slide. laugh.gif

Attached File  a.jpg ( 86.53K ) Number of downloads: 2


It is certainly not perfect. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Oct 28 2015, 05:52 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Oct 27 2015, 06:16 PM) *
This is what I was talking about not sure how he meant it. Just thought of this thread when I read it.


He's actually correct. There are people out there who claim it's the typhoon that caused the pattern. If y'all remember, one of the major things that I've tried to teach y'all is that the typhoon is mearly "eye candy" that allows those who can't see the pattern for what it is in the big picture. Does the typhoon "enhance" the pattern... Of course! When push comes to shove though...it's not the actual cause!


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OSNW3
post Oct 28 2015, 06:09 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 28 2015, 05:52 AM) *
He's actually correct. There are people out there who claim it's the typhoon that caused the pattern. If y'all remember, one of the major things that I've tried to teach y'all is that the typhoon is mearly "eye candy" that allows those who can't see the pattern for what it is in the big picture. Does the typhoon "enhance" the pattern... Of course! When push comes to shove though...it's not the actual cause!


However, he is very much wrong when he states "the cycling pattern we call the LRC." Just try to have the guy explain it. All I see is an imaginary index to measure an imaginary forecast method. wink.gif

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/657629439191330816
https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/657998099722309632

*stirring the pot*

EDIT: And on a super excited note, the maps updated over at the http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html #woo! wink.gif

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Oct 28 2015, 06:10 AM


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WeatherMonger
post Oct 28 2015, 06:27 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 28 2015, 05:52 AM) *
He's actually correct. There are people out there who claim it's the typhoon that caused the pattern. If y'all remember, one of the major things that I've tried to teach y'all is that the typhoon is mearly "eye candy" that allows those who can't see the pattern for what it is in the big picture. Does the typhoon "enhance" the pattern... Of course! When push comes to shove though...it's not the actual cause!

While you're around, is your blogging pretty much over? I'm sure you're busy and such, wasn't sure if you were waiting for a more active period to start it back up or if it was done.
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JDClapper
post Oct 28 2015, 12:57 PM
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Post on 10/22: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2031824

Post on 10/25 (below): http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032038

QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 25 2015, 03:43 PM) *
Just to document the progression of the forecast for the Thanksgiving time period (still in the very long range at this point)...

~11/24
[attachment=269362:a.png]

~11/25
[attachment=269363:c.png]

~Thanksgiving
[attachment=269364:d.png]

~Black Friday
[attachment=269365:e.png]

~11/28
[attachment=269366:f.png]


Getting in the under 300 hr's forecasts now! Ha.

If you compare to the 10/25 post.. major changes. Still way too long range to put much stock in it.. I'm just interested in watching the progession and hoping to see it settle down here soon so we have an idea of what the Thanksgiving week pattern will offer up for us.

~11/24
Attached File  a.png ( 366.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


~11/25
Attached File  b.png ( 362.54K ) Number of downloads: 1


~Thanksgiving
Attached File  c.png ( 344.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


~Black Friday
Attached File  d.png ( 335.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


~11/28
Attached File  e.png ( 344.57K ) Number of downloads: 0


This post has been edited by JDClapper: Oct 28 2015, 01:00 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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ClicheVortex2014
post Oct 28 2015, 02:11 PM
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Wanna start a thread for that system? wink.gif laugh.gif


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JDClapper
post Oct 28 2015, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Oct 28 2015, 03:11 PM) *
Wanna start a thread for that system? wink.gif laugh.gif


laugh.gif laugh.gif Memories of Nuri last year. hahahaha



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Oct 28 2015, 04:34 PM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Oct 27 2015, 07:56 PM) *
After a quick visual I would agree with you JDC.

If I quickly do the math in my head, seems the 3-day rate of change may be a day slow, with the bottom drop being the 7th via your AccuWx forecast image instead of the 6th like the BSR chart shows. smile.gif


Here's a better visual of the current 11 day hi temp forecasts for IPT (via AW) .. the idea is definitely there.. early warmth, a big dip with a recovery .. just a few days "late".

Attached File  a.jpg ( 132.79K ) Number of downloads: 4


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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OSNW3
post Oct 28 2015, 06:54 PM
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The 21-25 day #RRWT H5 anomaly has a classic #elnino look. I'd use #canonical but @webberweather & @antmasiello. wink.gif



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OSNW3
post Oct 28 2015, 06:55 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 28 2015, 04:34 PM) *
Here's a better visual of the current 11 day hi temp forecasts for IPT (via AW) .. the idea is definitely there.. early warmth, a big dip with a recovery .. just a few days "late".

Attached File  a.jpg ( 132.79K ) Number of downloads: 4


I like it. Nice work.

I hope it pans out, for the #BSR sake, of course. smile.gif


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jdrenken
post Oct 29 2015, 06:07 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Oct 28 2015, 12:57 PM) *
Post on 10/22: http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2031824

Post on 10/25 (below): http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=2032038
Getting in the under 300 hr's forecasts now! Ha.

If you compare to the 10/25 post.. major changes. Still way too long range to put much stock in it.. I'm just interested in watching the progession and hoping to see it settle down here soon so we have an idea of what the Thanksgiving week pattern will offer up for us.

~11/24
Attached File  a.png ( 366.27K ) Number of downloads: 0


~11/25
Attached File  b.png ( 362.54K ) Number of downloads: 1


~Thanksgiving
Attached File  c.png ( 344.74K ) Number of downloads: 0


~Black Friday
Attached File  d.png ( 335.89K ) Number of downloads: 0


~11/28
Attached File  e.png ( 344.57K ) Number of downloads: 0



I stay away from doing long range in the Bering Sea for the same reason we have learned to use the BSR in order to figure out the model mayhem.

However, in the 4-8 Day Range, keep tabs on the Alaskan WPC page and read their thoughts in the discussions!


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OSNW3
post Oct 29 2015, 08:06 AM
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Not entirely not related. wink.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/socialmedia/...-28_usradar.gif

A animated GIF radar loop of Patricia's moisture decent onto the CONUS at link above.


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jdrenken
post Oct 29 2015, 10:00 PM
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Hello gang!

I just got back from the 40th NWS CPC Diagnostic Workshop and my presentation. If you'd like to see it, go here.


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It's a work in progress!

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jdrenken
post Oct 30 2015, 08:04 PM
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It's official!


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Attached File  AMS2016.PNG ( 69.62K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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OSNW3
post Oct 31 2015, 07:43 AM
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Phasing of pattern correlation wave. R = 0.69 ~45 days. #BSR prog for 11/15 and #RRWT 45 days ago (10/1). Omega sig.

Frequency


BSR connection


RRWT pattern connection


Don't tell #LRC folk that this pattern recurred from a prior pattern in late and early August when R > 0.6 ~38 and ~56 days. smile.gif


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