Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 4/27/2011 torndao outbreak anniversary coming
Too close
post Apr 20 2016, 01:29 PM
Post #1




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





April 20, 2011 started like this on the Accuweather Forum:

Dates will be fixed as we get closer to the event. Models bring a very potent long-wave trough moving into the Central Plains around Tuesday of next week. With the Bermuda high off the east coast we manage to keep southerly flow at the surface bringing in warm-moist Gulf airmass across the entire region, with widespread Tds in the 60-70 degree range, well in advance of this developing system. This is still a week out, but taking a look at last night's 0Z model group, something pretty significant looks to be brewing.

FWIW...a pro met on American just started a threat for approximately these dates and also stated the potential for a major outbreak around this time.


Threw up a little tidbit about this one and the possible crazy May across the Great Lakes. Gonna be a reall interesting next few months that's for sure. Hopefully this year I don't almost get killed again night chasing an EF-4 lol

From the ABC 33/40 weather blog this morning:

QUOTE
"NEXT WEEK: Sure looks like a significant severe weather event is ahead, initially west of Alabama Tuesday, then moving into the Deep South by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Way too early to be specific on the threat, but all of the players are on the field. Best hope for us is for the band of storms to come through during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday when the air tends to be more stable, but I get the idea it might be an event mainly during the daytime Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details."

If you would like to follow the thread as it progressed to the worst, deadliest tornado outbreak since the 1925 midwest tornado outbreak, here are a couple of links:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...amp;mode=linear

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=26120
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 21 2016, 04:12 PM
Post #2




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





Apr 21 2011, 04:33 PM
Post #3

Memphis talking about two potential significant rounds of severe weather.

QUOTE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH A BIT FOR SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER...ALMOST IDENTICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE A SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH WILL GIVE THE MIDSOUTH A GOOD SHOT AT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ONE OR BOTH BEING SIGNIFICANT
OUTBREAKS - PARTICULARLY AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS EACH NIGHT AND
LENGTHENS THE HODOGRAPHS. PROLONGED FETCH OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR
SHOULD BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD. STORM
MODE AND TIMING ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE DYNAMICS AND
SHEAR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO HIGHER END EVENTS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.


Updated: April 21, 2011 1:20 pm ET
Developed by Dr. Greg Forbes, (Find him on Facebook)The Weather Channel's severe weather expert, the TOR:CON index is an estimate of the likelihood of tornado activity within a given time period.

Areas listed below have an above-average threat of having severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail, and/or tornadoes for the specified days.

Severe Weather Overview

Clusters of severe thunderstorms again Thursday along a near-stationary front that runs from TX across the Gulf Coast states. Storms also form north of (and above) the shallow front in OK, and overnight in KS and MO. A severe outbreak on Friday as a surface low taps Gulf of Mexico moisture and an upper disturbance moves in from the Northwest.



Forecast for Thursday, April 21

AL west-central - 2
AR west - 2
KS central and east - 2 night
LA north - 2
MO west-central and southwest - 2 night
MS central - 3
OK central and east - 2
TX central and north-central - 3
other areas - 2 or less


Forecast for Friday, April 22

AR north - 4 to 5
IA southeast -3 to 4
IL west-central - 7
IL northeast - 3 night
IL east-central - 5
IL south - 5 to 6
IN south - 5
IN central - 4
IN north - 3 to 4 night
KS east and south-central - 4
KY west - 4 to 5
KY central - 3 to 4
MI south - 2 to 3 night
MO east - 7
MO central - 6
MO west - 5
OK central - 4
OK northeast - 4
TX north near Wichita Falls, Abilene - 3
other areas - 2 or less
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 21 2016, 04:13 PM
Post #3




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470






QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 21 2011, 01:57 PM) *
He updated the TorCon site so it's a 7 for WC IL Source

I don't understand where Fobes gets his Torcon numbers from. They seem higher than Tuesday's and that was a bigger event, with strong, long tracked tornadoes. The SPC is just saying a few tornadoes in the IL/MO area. We'll see I guess.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 210 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR FLOODING RAINFALL...
ESPECIALLY STARTING LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WITH THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT...
ISOLATED HAILERS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LATE TONIGHT. BIG QUESTION
ON FRIDAY WILL BE WITH THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND ITS AFFECT
ON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE TOMORROW AFTN AND EVENING.
MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MORNING CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTN WITH REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT AFT 20Z FRIDAY. DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
PROFILES INDICATED ON MODELS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E/SE OF THE SFC
WAVE...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUGGEST WIND AND
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT TOMORROW AFTN INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT NEAR AND EAST OF THE SFC WAVE AND WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TRANSITIONING INTO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWS
DOWN OR BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG OR SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 26 2016, 01:19 PM
Post #4




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





Five years ago today......

From last night:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60NxBe1L_hw
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGdhu5xbLcU

Apr 26 2011, 06:50 AM
Dallas/Fort Worth AFD used some very strong wording. they are concerned for a violent tornado outbreak. they think an upgrade to high risk is a good possibility

Another round of strong to severe storms is expected today across
North Texas. Very large hail, damaging downburst winds, and a few
tornadoes will be possible. Severe storms are expected to develop
this afternoon along and east of Interstate 35. The threat for
severe weather will continue into the nighttime hours. The highest
threat for tornadoes and downburst winds will be east of Interstate
35 and north of Interstate 20. Residents across north Texas should
stay tuned to the latest weather today and listen for possible
watches or warnings.

To the west of the dryline, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected southwest of a line from Cisco to Meridian to Gatesville.
Relative humidities in that area this afternoon will fall into the
teens and lower 20s, and the winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph from
the southwest.

TWC gave Western Ohio a 5.. I tthink the highest I've ever been under.. I know Tornado threat isn't that great but that just gives me hope for severe weather.

you will have a higher threat wed with a strong sfc system and jet streak movin near your area

You have all the answers today.. Yeah Tomorrow is the best bet.. I just hope they come more during the late afternoon, versus night.. I haven't had a day time thunderstorm in a while.. And since I work nights I want to enjoy instead of being in a room with no windows lol. Thanks for the responses.

Apr 26 2011, 07:39 AM
we got a high risk today! cant see the area yet but see the wording at the top of the screen

We should have back-to-back High risk days.

There's a very slim possibility that we may even get a Day 2 High risk...

Ok everyones talking high risk for tomorrow. Do you think Indiana will get in on that or do you think we are at bigger risk for tonight's storms? (not that it matters since we had a tornado in the area early this morning and weren't even supposed to get anything severe)


if there is a high risk tmrw, which is pretty likely, it is goin to most likely be farther south in the central TN and northern AL area where shear, instability, and moisture are maximized. but dont let your guard down. any severe storm can produce a tornado

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FOR NE TX...FAR SE OK...EXTREME NW LA...AND THE SRN HALF OF
AR...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK...FROM
NE TX/SE OK TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH RIVERS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A BROAD SWATH FROM THE SRN
PLAINS EWD/NEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...DANGEROUS TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM NE TX ENEWD TO THE MS RIVER...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO/IL WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER
MI TODAY...WHILE AN INTENSE UPSTREAM JET STREAK PROGRESSES ESEWD TO
THE SRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. MORNING SUBSIDENCE OVER AR /IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING WAVE/ WILL BE REPLACED BY ASCENT BEGINNING ALONG
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SPREADING
EWD THIS EVENING INTO SE OK/NE TX AND SRN AR OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS SAME CORRIDOR IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
90-100 KT MIDLEVEL JET. THE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRENGTHENING SLY/SSWLY LLJ FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS E TX...BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
ORIGINATING TO THE W...WILL PROVIDE MODERATE-STRONG WARM SECTOR
INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WHICH APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF A DANGEROUS
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK.

...S/SE AR INTO NW MS TODAY...
INITIAL WARM ADVECTION STORMS WILL FORM DURING THE DAY ALONG AND N
OF THE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS S/SE AR AND NW MS...AS LOW-LEVEL
WAA INCREASES WITH A DEVELOPING LLJ. A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 200 M2/S2 WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ARKLATEX/SE OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT MOVED OVER AR/NW MS LEFT AN E-W OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT TODAY. FARTHER
S...A WEAKENING MCS OVER SRN LA/MS HAS GENERATED A COLD POOL ACROSS
CENTRAL LA/E TX...BUT AN UNIMPEDED FEED OF LOW 70S BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS REMAINS TO THE W OF THIS CONVECTION ACROSS SE TX. THE SE
TX MOISTURE WILL SURGE NWD TODAY AS THE SRN LA STORMS
DISSIPATE...WHILE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR FROM THE W. THESE PROCESSES...COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3500 J/KG IN THE NE TX WARM SECTOR...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
INSTABILITY FARTHER E ACROSS NRN LA/SRN AR...AND FARTHER N INTO SE
OK.

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
N/NE TX...ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND DRYLINE TO THE IMMEDIATE E/SE OF
THE SURFACE LOW...AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD SW AR/NW LA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60
KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 300-500 M2/S2...AND A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LONG-TRACK/DAMAGING TORNADOES
WITH DISCRETE AND CLUSTER SUPERCELLS INTO THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE
LIKELY WITH THE INITIAL SUPERCELLS.

...NRN LA/SE AR/NW MS/WRN TN TONIGHT...
AS THE STRONG SYNOPTIC CYCLONE PROGRESSES EWD AND INTERACTS WITH THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...INTENSE CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN NE TX/SW AR AREA
SHOULD EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE INTENSE
MCS/S...WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO BOW ECHOES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS TORNADOES. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY EWD/NEWD TO THE MS RIVER LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC WAVE BEGINS TO EJECT ENEWD.

...OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
THE EJECTING LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A BROAD SWATH OF
MODERATE-STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW...ABOVE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW FROM PRIOR CONVECTION MAKE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TODAY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION...THOUGH
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS
AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH A RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 04/26/2011

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 26 2016, 01:34 PM
Post #5




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





Looking at the NAM, the conventional 30% high risk may not do it tomorrow.

We may see a 45% TOR risk if everything works out right.
I also heard Forbes upgraded parts of his TORCON to a 9.

I don't know, if that happens my jaw will drop to the floor.

'm at work and can't post screenshots, but latest Mesoanalysis shows Effective shear of 65knots just East of Little Rock, SRH of 600 m2/s2 just West of Tupelo blink.gif , STP of 7 in Northern Mississippi just SE of Memphis with VGP of .3, both EHI values of 8, 12 degree temp jump, 8 degree dew point jump, and 16 degree Theta-value jump in 3 hours.

PDS Watch:
879
WWUS20 KWNS 261847
SEL5
SPC WW 261847
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-270300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 215
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 145 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF WACO
TEXAS TO 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 213...WW 214...

DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST TX...SPREADING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHER INTENSE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TX AND ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD. BOTH AREAS OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY INCLUDE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. WIND FIELDS WILL
BE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE EVENING...AND STORMS TRACKING NEAR THE
EXISTING BOUNDARY FROM TX INTO AR WILL HAVE ENHANCED SHEAR AND THE
RISK OF STRONG/LONG-LIVED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes Mod (60%)

Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (80%)

Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (90%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

Jeez...... The probs on the new watch are crazy man!
Have any probs been higher than that for a PDS Tornado Watch?

Yup pretty much going according to forecast on my blog so far. I gotta admit though looking at the setup and such tomorrow, looks very bad for Ohio
Honestly some people in this thread are talking about the 02 outbreak for the State. I'm thinking more on the line of the 85 storms that dropped tornadoes. That's just what the setup looks like to me tomorrow IMO fellow friend. Let's get past today first. A lot to happen here before we get to then.

Apr 26 2011, 02:48 PM
Here is the first cell in TX on radar. Supercell in a half hour IMO. you can tell it's shaping up already. four to five radar scans. It went from nothing to 31,000 Ft. Cloud tops.
Reed Timmer:Targeting new storm developing in Van Zandt Co., TX. Looks like this sup will track toward Texarkana right long the warm front. 0-1 km EHIs 7+ in this corridor. Strong tornadoes likely.

Via Twitter. Reed is a god to be on the first storm down there.
Storm south of Dallas looks to be forming a hook

Should go Tornado warned any minute. One spotter on the Tornadovideos.net live feed looks to be looking right at a developing wall cloud.

s going. Tor Warning in... 3, 2, 1... blink


Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 27 2016, 12:58 PM
Post #6




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





April 27, 2011 9:57AM
this is one of the most volatile setups i have seen in a long time. mid level dry punch entering the high risk area now. this is clearing clouds and will allow for rapid destabilization due to the high dew point air. extreme severe weather parameters already building in around western MS and will continue to advect NE with time. already a 12 significant tornado parameter and 44 supercell composite just west of jackson MS. when the upper level low punches into this, there will be explosive supercell development. the jet streak looks to be right over the warm sector today during peak heating. it is already moving NE out of TX

Per the latest HRRR model output, it appears as though Dixie Alley is in for a long day, and us in Ohio are in for a long day of rain and general thunderstorm

I'm watching a couple cells in N/MS heading our way.
TVS on the cell in Northern Lee county in Mississippi. Sun has come out here.

We'll see what happens,these are the two cells i was talking about


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

TNZ093>095-271545-
WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
934 AM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...STRONG STORMS ENTERING SOUTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

AT 929 AM, A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS CROSSING THE STATE
LINE FROM ALABAMA INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. AREAS AROUND WAYNESBORO,
LAWRENCEBURG, AND PULASKI WILL BE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED. THESE
STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, WIND GUSTS TO 50
MILES AN HOUR, AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE CELLS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 55 TO 60 MILES AN HOUR. THESE AREAS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN HIT HARD BY EARLY MORNING STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 300
PM. PLEASE REMAIN TUNED TO A RELIABLE MEDIA SOURCE SHOULD
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY.

this is one of the most volatile setups i have seen in a long time. mid level dry punch entering the high risk area now. this is clearing clouds and will allow for rapid destabilization due to the high dew point air. extreme severe weather parameters already building in around western MS and will continue to advect NE with time. already a 12 significant tornado parameter and 44 supercell composite just west of jackson MS. when the upper level low punches into this, there will be explosive supercell development. the jet streak looks to be right over the warm sector today during peak heating. it is already moving NE out of TX

i am thinking the high risk needs to keep on being adjusted S and SW. idk if northern AL and south central TN will be able to recover from the ongoing convection. rain cooled air may really hamper later development. instability is building rapidly south of this

Dangerous supercell in MS. Like Mid Tn Man said heading towards Oxford. Broad rotation for now.
Oxford, MS fixing to get slammed.
NWS-Memphis currently following a potentially "large and violent" tornado just south of Ole Miss in Oxford, MS.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-IpbglKfJw
NWSChat, one of the forecasters made comment that radar is showing a "potentially large and violent" tornado and that it may be "partially obscured by rain & debris."

New PDS watch coming soon.
outbreak goin to begin soon. PDS watch down south with extreme probabilities
45 hatched tornadoes!!!! this is unreal. that is basically saying there will be a strong or violent tornado in that spot. your area could still see some tornadoes later tonight but convection wont get to u till late which isnt favorable for major severe weather like down south which is timing during peak heating. your instability is limited but with the strong wind shear in place, severe storms are a real possibility
Paramaters are off da charts. 1000 effective SRH. My god.

Do you think my TOR risk of 5% is sufficient, or should it be increased (if so to what)?

Craven/Brooks significant severe is insane in Mississippi...100!

ust got a cnn.com breaking news email alert;
National Weather Service issues "dangerous situation" tornado watch for parts of Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi.
A "particularly dangerous situation watch" is issued when there is a high risk of multiple strong tornadoes.
I was thinking about how lucky my area of the country has been so far...yeah we have had a ton of rain, but nothing severe. But I wonder when and if our day will come.

What's not good is that 250,000 people are without power right now in Alabama thanks to this morning's storms. How will they get there warnings, hope someone calls them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhKjv9GuARQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ev2bZRV8eOo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gi29DemZioE

Okay, how come I'm suddenly in general thunder now on the day 2 outlook as well?

EHI of 13 at 0-3KM in Alabama. Sig tornado effective layer up to 11.

Someone else can post the text as I have to leave but PDS Tornado Watch 235 has >95% probs for everything...the first time I have ever seen that.

HISTORIC Watch #235 ..... 95% probs on EVERYTHING!
New watch with heights probs you can go.
darn...

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (>95%)

Wind Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots High (>95%)

Hail Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (>95%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)
Holy (Insert word here)
in response to your comment... laugh.gif
and on a serious note, this is getting incredibly dangerous..

My forecast office just issued the afternoon forecast package update and they don't even mention severe in the text for tonight!
And the forecast discussion only mentions slight risk - apparently it was cut just before the new outlook came. Also it has no mention of thunder for tomorrow's forecast.
As I said, Kerr seems to be obscenely pessimistic with his convective outlooks - or at least I hope that's all that's going on.

W and SW of Birmingham, AL seem to be the prime spot right now, Sig tornado parameter (effective layer) is 11 right now
Wow...look at that...0-3km EHI is 13 just East of Meridian.

This post has been edited by Too close: Apr 27 2016, 03:10 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Too close
post Apr 27 2016, 03:44 PM
Post #7




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 22
Joined: 4-March 12
Member No.: 26,470





http://www.abc3340.com/

LARGE TORNADO LIVE ON TV

Crud. Trying to post a screencap of a hook echo over Cullman, AL. Confirmed tornado on the ground. Wunderground radar showing a TVS in that very spot.

QUOTE
ALC043-103-272015-
/O.CON.KHUN.TO.W.0065.000000T0000Z-110427T2015Z/
MORGAN AL-CULLMAN AL-
250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011

...A TORNADO EMERGENCY IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN
CULLMAN AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 247 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS
TORNADO IS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CULLMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GOOD
HOPE...BALDWIN...WEST POINT...PHELAN...SOUTH VINEMONT...LACON...COLE
SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW...EVA...BAILEYTON...RYAN CROSSROADS...HULACO AND
FLORETTE.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rvlcuodab1U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z_prZn13JXY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AZaNn3WDsQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xSp33GTxs4

Local news just said firefighters in Cullman, AL are saying houses have been completely destroyed
Another good min-by-min update of the weather. This one confirms the tornado in Cullman, AL.

http://news.blogs.cnn.com/2011/04/27/possi...amage-reported/
Emergency management officials believe that a tornado has struck Cullman Regional Medical Center in northern Alabama. A switchboard operator at the hospital told CNN that officials declared a disaster at the facility.
Does anyone think SW Ohio has the potential this evening that is happening down south?

you dont have near as high as a tornado threat as down south. you can def get tornadoes in your area but not likely of the magnitude they are seein in MS and AL

...THIS IS A TORNADO EMERGENCY...
AT 324 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A LARGE TORNADO ON
THE GROUND NEAR HACKLEBURG. THIS TORNADO WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH.
Another Debris ball.
Dr. Forbes is giving Northern Alabama a 10 on the Tor:con index. Something he hasn't done before.
just unreal
That's how you know today will go down in history mellow.gif
Almost every tornado is being reported as wedges wow. Several tornado emergencies out too.

Hackleburg tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyu3ppIR4MU

Possible large tornado at Pisgah, Al. I think we're looking at a debris ball there.
Pisgah tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvYlFivAVx8

Phil Campbell tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLDR-mfO5Ms
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2gU56kvh8hY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcst_GGOqfM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=losl4p5lOQg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyz38L4tp9U
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwPAzCOlVck

another tornado heading for Cullman again, another tornado heading for Arab again
There's so many tornado warnings I can't keep up. Multiple Tornado emergencies with large tornadoes on the ground insane...
So many hook echoes on the radar, it looks like the first day of fishing season.

Arab tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J5a_yyh4KbQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ciZhUfyicBg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLdIXv8HAI
From a dog's perspective ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXM0M67QF2U

Tanner tornado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcst_GGOqfM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QuNTERwMjoI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Ro6BcEKu1M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4nHLSN4J0E



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

Reply to this topicStart new topic
2 User(s) are reading this topic (2 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 23rd September 2017 - 04:13 AM