 Feb 3-4, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations |
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 Feb 3 2018, 10:13 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864  |
Good luck and have fun,
Link to the Forecasting Thread. Precip starting to blossom into the regions.. still lots of virga around but figured I start this up. QUOTE .SYNOPSIS... High pressure has moved off the Virginia coast this evening, with southerly flow established A storm system will move north of the region Sunday dragging a cold front through the area later in the day and overnight. Thickening clouds late this evening in broad region of warm advection in advance of low pressure over the Grt Lks. Steady or slowly rising temps expected overnight, beneath thickening cloud cover and warm advection. Lead shortwave, over the southern plains at 00Z, will link up with Gulf of Mexico moisture tonight, resulting in a blossoming area of precip over the Tenn/Ohio valleys tonight. Loop  Tracks
Surface
Alerts
Snow Total Forecast
This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 4 2018, 03:10 PM |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:16 PM
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#2
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,171 Joined: 28-October 11 From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581') Member No.: 26,143 |
0z snowmaps
RGEM, 3k NAM, NAM
-------------------- Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"
Current Season: 22¾" Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44" Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63" Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼" Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½" ** "MoM" Certified ** Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ... |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:19 PM
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#3
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 3 2018, 10:16 PM)  0z snowmaps RGEM, 3k NAM, NAM
Serious cutoff geez. |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:20 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
Is it me, or is there some serious stuff down south?? Seems more intense that modeled.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1 |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:21 PM
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#5
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
Infrared and Upper Heights. Almost so flat in the East surprised there's even a SSW flow. But trough is digging a bit tomorrow.
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Feb 3 2018, 10:21 PM
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#6
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:19 PM) Serious cutoff geez. You aren't kidding man! |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:26 PM
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#7
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
Clap, when you come back on, any thoughts on WRF performance this winter? I really can't recall.
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Feb 3 2018, 10:28 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,171 Joined: 28-October 11 From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581') Member No.: 26,143 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:26 PM) Clap, when you come back on, any thoughts on WRF performance this winter? I really can't recall. Couldn't give you a great opinion... haven't followed much at all. -------------------- Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"
Current Season: 22¾" Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44" Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63" Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼" Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½" ** "MoM" Certified ** Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ... |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:29 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,171 Joined: 28-October 11 From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581') Member No.: 26,143 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:20 PM) Is it me, or is there some serious stuff down south?? Seems more intense that modeled. https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1 Looks nice and juicy .. would like to see that thrown at the cold air tomorrow. 
-------------------- Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"
Current Season: 22¾" Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44" Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63" Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼" Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½" ** "MoM" Certified ** Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ... |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:35 PM
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#10
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 665 Joined: 8-January 08 From: Long Pond, PA Member No.: 12,154 |
A cool 18F tonight at an elevation of approximately 1900'. Let's see the effect of elevation here. I haven't looked outside to see if cloudy or not. Wind is calm.
-------------------- Long Pond, PA
Elevation: 1865 Feet |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:37 PM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 765 Joined: 4-August 10 From: NWNJ Member No.: 23,320 |
Vernon NJ 2100hrs - 24deg, 22:30hrs 26deg, the air does have a milder feel to it, almost can smell the rain.
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Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM
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#12
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 20,965 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 |
Low of 12° here this morning and rain 10hrs later.
Lows today
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Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM
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#13
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,171 Joined: 28-October 11 From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581') Member No.: 26,143 |
And for good measure... 0z GFS
-------------------- Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"
Current Season: 22¾" Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44" Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63" Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼" Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½" ** "MoM" Certified ** Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ... |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:45 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Feb 3 2018, 10:37 PM) Vernon NJ 2100hrs - 24deg, 22:30hrs 26deg, the air does have a milder feel to it, almost can smell the rain. Actually, think that is just the atmosphere moistening up. Check your RH. Dews still real low and climbing. Over running comes much quicker than modeled. Levels "moisten up" rapidly. Pretty sure the radar blows up in the next few hours, and want to watch tomorrow big time with what goes on down south. |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:47 PM
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#15
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,890 Joined: 1-February 11 Member No.: 25,332 |
QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:45 PM) Actually, think that is just the atmosphere moistening up. Check your RH. Dews still real low and climbing. Over running comes much quicker than modeled. Levels "moisten up" rapidly. Pretty sure the radar blows up in the next few hours, and want to watch tomorrow big time with what goes on down south. Bingo. Won't be surprised to see precip on my doorstep when I wake up tomorrow. -------------------- Blue Ridge Bouncer
Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die. |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:52 PM
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#16
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 169 Joined: 2-September 10 From: Northern Maine Member No.: 23,561 |
I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of NWSCaribou putting out a warning. Right on that 7"+ line. Beyond that, looks like a nuisance storm.
Currently -1F and cloudy. -------------------- Snowfall
Current Season: 128.1" Last Season: 2016-2017 - 129.6" Best Season: 2007-2008 - 197.8" |
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Feb 3 2018, 10:56 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,890 Joined: 1-February 11 Member No.: 25,332 |
QUOTE(mainiac @ Feb 3 2018, 10:52 PM) I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of NWSCaribou putting out a warning. Right on that 7"+ line. Beyond that, looks like a nuisance storm. Currently -1F and cloudy. Thank you for the report from the arctic circle. Now get back to feeding the penguins. -------------------- Blue Ridge Bouncer
Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die. |
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Feb 3 2018, 11:00 PM
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#18
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 3 2018, 10:47 PM) Bingo. Won't be surprised to see precip on my doorstep when I wake up tomorrow. Will take a touch to moisten up, but unless you are getting up real early, pretty sure snow will have entered, sat down and had breakfast, and will be cleaning up the dishes by the time you wake up and enter the kitchen 
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Feb 3 2018, 11:01 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 12,245 Joined: 26-December 08 From: New Tripoli, PA Member No.: 16,666 |
QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 3 2018, 10:56 PM) Thank you for the report from the arctic circle. Now get back to feeding the penguins.
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Feb 3 2018, 11:03 PM
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#20
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 85 Joined: 29-January 09 From: Central Pa. Member No.: 17,202 |
QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM) And for good measure... 0z GFS
GFS definitely looking a lot better than earlier today. -------------------- Inquiring minds want to know
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