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> Gulf of Mexico Tropical Development 2017, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
risingriver
post Aug 30 2017, 10:35 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Aug 30 2017, 06:57 AM) *
6z GFS places a bunch of rain in SE TX from the wave - up to 2' more of much UN-needed precip.

[attachment=328168:gfs_apcpn_us_39.png]


I don't see Texas catching a break for very long if this verifies.
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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 11:18 AM
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12Z GFS says that Texas or Louisiana, gets another decent hit from another tropical cyclone.


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 11:20 AM
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Hour 156:

Attached Image


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 11:21 AM
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hour 162:

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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 11:23 AM
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168:

979mb.

May be a hurricane going towards the TX/LA border.

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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 11:26 AM
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174:


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Snow____
post Aug 30 2017, 11:42 AM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 30 2017, 12:26 PM) *
174:


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Goodness. Poor people. Even if it doesn't get that strong, the rain.... Can't imagine.


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Phased Vort
post Aug 30 2017, 12:05 PM
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Total precipitation for this little critter:

Houston area seems to get between 6 to 8 inches of rain on this run.


Places in LA get as much as 26 inches of rain.

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risingriver
post Aug 30 2017, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 30 2017, 12:26 PM) *
174:


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Low end Cat 2?

Winds will be a much bigger deal with this system even if it's only CAT 1. With soil so soggy, any strong winds will likely bring down trees.

Carlos, maybe you should unphase the vorts for a few weeks?

This post has been edited by risingriver: Aug 30 2017, 01:40 PM
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DrewNola
post Aug 30 2017, 02:03 PM
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Watching closely from New Orleans......
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risingriver
post Aug 30 2017, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(DrewNola @ Aug 30 2017, 03:03 PM) *
Watching closely from New Orleans......


Crossing fingers for y'all.
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stretchct
post Aug 30 2017, 03:25 PM
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Euro went other way, at least to hr 240



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Weather4LA
post Aug 30 2017, 05:33 PM
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18z GFS doesn't really get this one going, thankfully. The waters of Harvey, and the devastating flooding of August 2016 in Baton Rouge, are still too fresh on my mind.


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
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DrewNola
post Aug 31 2017, 09:03 AM
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ANY UPDATES?
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Phased Vort
post Aug 31 2017, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Aug 30 2017, 12:45 PM) *
Low end Cat 2?

Winds will be a much bigger deal with this system even if it's only CAT 1. With soil so soggy, any strong winds will likely bring down trees.

Carlos, maybe you should unphase the vorts for a few weeks?



So clever!!

I would need to talk to the all powerfull Mr Atmosphere.

But I can tell you right now that, phasing vorts is way too cool, while unphasing them is not as nice, laugh.gif


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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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Phased Vort
post Aug 31 2017, 12:08 PM
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For those wanting updates, the 00Z ECMWF develops a tropical system and tracks it to the central GOMEX. Then, it starts to loop to the SE, and starts to be absorbed by monster Hurricane Irma.



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Phasing's done. The Vort's out.

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risingriver
post Aug 31 2017, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Aug 31 2017, 01:05 PM) *
So clever!!

I would need to talk to the all powerfull Mr Atmosphere.

But I can tell you right now that, phasing vorts is way too cool, while unphasing them is not as nice, laugh.gif


I figured it was probably like crossing the streams in Ghostbusters.

Atmosphere seems primed to allow for storms and explosive development of them given oceanic heat content.

Might be an exciting month or so until activity starts to wane.
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Phased Vort
post Sep 11 2017, 05:46 PM
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We should watch this area for development about 15 days from now.

I have seen some 500 mb vort energy travelling towards this area that may spin up a surface low, and given the ssts, itīs not out of the question something may develop.

Feel the same way about the Bahamas -Southeast area.


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Undertakerson
post Today, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(Phased Vort @ Sep 11 2017, 06:46 PM) *
We should watch this area for development about 15 days from now.

I have seen some 500 mb vort energy travelling towards this area that may spin up a surface low, and given the ssts, itīs not out of the question something may develop.

Feel the same way about the Bahamas -Southeast area.

Um - nice call.

This is a tropical system ejecting from GOM and meeting a long wave trough in the E US. Lord, I hope that is wrong.

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