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jdrenken
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 11:40 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


We don't have the ability to edit forum titles and subtitles anymore, please place the end date as July 6th.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2331253 · Replies: · Views: 3,221

jdrenken
Posted on: Jul 7 2018, 11:38 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jul 7 2018, 10:00 AM) *
And actually, that could be quite a prolonged heat wave as the ridging anchored over South Korea and southern Japan looks to stick around for a 5-7+ day stretch...
[attachment=356845:gefs_z50..._npac_37.png]


One thing that you have to remember is that with a range of dates, there can be frontal passages to at least bring it back to climo for a time. Something that was tweeted to me...
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331252 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

jdrenken
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 11:14 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Why on earth do I have to explain this on twitter?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2331236 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

jdrenken
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 12:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


CODE

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EDT FRI 06 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-043 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF CAROLINA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 07/1500Z A. 08/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 07/1200Z C. 08/0300Z
D. 33.2N 74.4W D. 33.5N 74.5W
E. 07/1430Z TO 07/1830Z E. 08/0530Z TO 08/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42
A. 08/1030Z
B. NOAA2 0303A CYCLONE
C. 08/0830Z
D. 33.5N 74.5W
E. 08/1000Z TO 08/1500Z <-----DATES CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY WC-130 FIXES FOR SUSPECT SYSTEM.
B. NOAA 42 P-3 TDR MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS FOR SUSPECT SYSTEM.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331221 · Replies: · Views: 3,459

jdrenken
Posted on: Jul 6 2018, 12:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Recon "today"...

CODE
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 05 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FIX OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO AT 08/1130Z NEAR 14.7N 56.6W.


Then "tomorrow"...#1 is for the "suspect area" off the SE.

CODE

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EDT FRI 06 JULY 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-043 CORRECTION

2. HURRICANE BERYL
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74
A. 08/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0102A BERYL
C. 08/0830Z
D. 14.2N 56.6W
E. 08/1100Z TO 08/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES FOR BERYL IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2331218 · Replies: · Views: 2,621

jdrenken
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 07:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Scott Sabol and I exchanged some tweets regarding the disparity in the European +PNA not producing a cooler pattern. The ULL stuck in the West is pumping heights over the Canadian Rockies which gives the impression of that. However, it's weakening and can't move the ECONUS ridge out of the way...not to mention the PNA really doesn't look that impressive (I don't have access to the weather.us charts anymore so I was confused at the start of how he stated it was pretty stout).

It isn't until the Hudson Bay system comes down that our ridge over the East gets shunted to the West yet again promising another NW Flow pattern.

On a side note...be careful how #wxtwitter claims of knowing how, or why, the models are not doing well in the 11-15 day. Everyone knows the long range stinks and biases come out.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330113 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

jdrenken
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 07:37 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


From taking the 6-10 and 8-14 day analogs on May 26th...
  Forum: Current Tropical Season Weather · Post Preview: #2330112 · Replies: · Views: 353

jdrenken
Posted on: May 25 2018, 08:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 25 2018, 12:44 AM) *
May and June are my favorite months of the year for weather. Summer-like warmth is really starting to take over, but the jet stream hasn't weakened enough to balance it out. I love looking at GFS runs to see what kind of nonsense it puts out.

Like tonights run. 120 degrees in Oklahoma would shatter their all-time record of 113.



Then you also have something like this, which would rank it among the top outbreaks for coverage of extreme parameters. Less intense but still ridiculous parameters rotate around the meandering southern ridge/heat dome, but not many storms pop due to an intense cap/EML.

For those who don't know how EHI works, values between 1-3 signify significant tornadoes are possible (assuming there's a supercell). You're seeing widespread 10+ here.



Twitter thread via Maue talking about the GFS being...the GFS.

A look at the major indices and their impacts via Habbyhints!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2329007 · Replies: · Views: 26,265

jdrenken
Posted on: May 15 2018, 02:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(stretchct @ May 15 2018, 01:36 PM) *
From Uptons Discussion

CODE


The remnant outflow boundary from earlier, previously near the
OH/PA border and a leading short wave have now moved into
central NY/PA, where strengthening of the ongoing convection is
underway.

Most significantly, per 12Z soundings across western PA and NY
show an EML, with mid-level lapse rates according to sounding
climatology near the climatological maximum for this time of
year. Given strong west-northwest deep layer flow, these lapse
rates will advect eastward, creating an environment not often
seen in the Northeast, particularly this early in the convective
season.
As diurnal heating occurs, low-level lapse rates will
steepen in concert.

Initially, expect there to be potential for supercells capable
of producing large hail and damaging winds, as well as the risk
of an isolated tornado. With time, nearly all hi-
res/deterministic models suggest convective activity
consolidates into an MCS, with damaging wind as the primary
threat as it moves into the area. Any discrete cells or QLCS
vortices will maintain the risk of hail and/or isolated
tornadoes.



EML?


Elevated mixed layer
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2328230 · Replies: · Views: 24,302

jdrenken
Posted on: May 7 2018, 06:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


SPC has a 'Slight' for Day 3...by Broyles... blink.gif

Attached Image


Attached Image


CODE
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Mon May 07 2018

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND PARTS OF ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms associated with severe hail and isolated
wind damage will be possible across parts of the mid Mississippi
Valley on Wednesday.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance
eastward across Iowa and Missouri with a corridor of maximized
low-level moisture in place ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints
may be able to reach the low to mid 60s F across parts of the mid
Mississippi Valley by afternoon. If this occurs, then pockets of
moderate instability could develop in areas that warm sufficiently.
The increasing instability combined with enhanced low-level
convergence along and ahead of the front should result in scattered
thunderstorm development from west of the Chicago area southward to
around St Louis. This convection is forecast to move eastward across
the slight risk area during the late afternoon and early evening.
The NAM appears to be aggressive with moisture and instability.
Taking this into account would yield MLCAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range across western Illinois by late Wednesday afternoon.
This combined with 25 to 35 kt of 0-6 km shear and steep low-level
lapse rates could be enough for multicells associated with isolated
wind damage. Severe hail may also occur especially if moderate
instability can be realized across the slight risk area.

..Broyles.. 05/07/2018
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327630 · Replies: · Views: 10,975

jdrenken
Posted on: May 6 2018, 09:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Winner winner chicken dinner!
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327621 · Replies: · Views: 10,975

jdrenken
Posted on: May 5 2018, 06:05 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 4 2018, 06:59 PM) *
The last few days have sucked. My apartment complex just found out recently that the AC broke while we were in the heating season, and it'll be another 11 days before it's fixed. It's been in the 80's for the past few days, and it takes a while for the daytime warmth to leave the apartment overnight. Squall just came through though, went from around 75 to 65. Feels so much better.

So glad that I'm fortunate enough that not having AC from April-September isn't something I'm used to.


I was living in a split level duplex during the 2012 summer and our ac went out. The wait time was just as bad because the demand was unreal for ac units that kept failing around Central MO. So, that whole summer I took an old comforter to create a wall on the entrance landing. The ONLY time we went upstairs is to take late night showers and making meals with limited stove usage.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327570 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: May 5 2018, 05:53 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


It's official! The SOI research has been accepted for #NWAS18 annual meeting!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327569 · Replies: · Views: 573,852

jdrenken
Posted on: May 4 2018, 06:53 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ May 3 2018, 03:50 PM) *
This looks beautiful



GFS has a ridiculous June-like pattern setup. Lots of moisture in place going into MJO phase 2, which looks to happen sometime around May 16. Been talking about this time period for over a week now.




GFS and GEFS are picking up on a large eastern ridge, Pacific NW trough.




Nice!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327491 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2018, 09:50 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


If only there was some type of long range forecasting ability to foretell this pattern. wink.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2327416 · Replies: · Views: 11,444

jdrenken
Posted on: May 3 2018, 09:44 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 2 2018, 09:52 AM) *
Don't want to have May start like April, bit of history from ILX
[attachment=355778:FB_IMG_1...72490094.jpg]


Not that long ago...


Phenomenal May Snowfall Wunderground article.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327414 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: May 1 2018, 07:11 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 29 2018, 04:37 PM) *
Current Upper Level pattern. Big ridge in the Atlantic.

Interesting the NAO is positive. Can someone tell me again why it would be positive with a big ridge in the Atlantic?

I think I remember this indicator is more for Greenland blocking rather than full north Atlantic? Or maybe this ridge axis is too far East for it to show as a negative NAO?

Another look and the telliconnections forecasts.


The ridge doesn't extend far enough North to be in your "stereotypical" -NAO set up. The ESRL calculates NAO via (35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W) while the cpc utilizes a method that changes with each season.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327199 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 26 2018, 11:54 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 25 2018, 05:04 PM) *
BSR CONUS correlation overlay with all the systems worth watching through mid-month-ish. May 2, May 5, May 11, May 15-18 are dates of interest. Emphasis on May 15-18 if MJO makes it to phase 2.






Scott Sabol was on this utilizing the SOI also.

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/989489251543863299

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2327033 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 25 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Apr 15 2018, 06:11 PM) *
First time poster checking in. Under my first TOR warning of the season. Summit, Stark, and Portage counties in NE Ohio. I did not expect to get anything out of this system, although the HRRR has been pretty solid on selling this line coming through with the low for a day now. Looks like spin-ups at worst, but perhaps a harbinger of a more interesting season than the past several around here!

Radar at around the time of issuance. Crappy NEXRAD quality but you can see the notches.


Welcome to the forum! Looking forward to your contributions! Great group of guys here in the severe threads to learn from.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2326992 · Replies: · Views: 21,255

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 19 2018, 12:07 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Apr 16 2018, 01:52 PM) *
My first time mentioning the possibility for a severe weather/tornado outbreak in the April 10-12 timeframe was back on March 25, a full 2 weeks and 4 or 5 days before the April 13-15 tornado outbreak. It was a slam dunk of signs pointing to this event... the MJO, SOI, BSR, EAR, and RRWT all supported a big system pushing through in the same time frame.

My wording was pretty strong regarding the tornado potential, which I believe was justified, but when it came to the details of the event, it was pretty underwhelming due to VBV (veer-back-veer, in which a layer of the atmosphere has winds turning clockwise with height which destroys rotating updrafts, thus discouraging supercells and tornadoes). That was just one of the things that could go wrong when using organic signals to forecast a system well in advance, so that was unfortunate for the forecast. Still though, there've been 52 tornado reports over the 3 day span, and with NWS offices still out there surveying damage, that number will likely increase further.

Over the 3 days, there were 178 tornado warnings and 467 severe thunderstorm warnings, and somewhere around 750 reports of severe weather.



Great job! Just remember my favorite catch phrase!
QUOTE
We nail the pattern, specifics come later!
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2326769 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: Apr 2 2018, 10:12 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Shipmate in Ronkonhoma reported ~4" at 8:35am.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2324196 · Replies: · Views: 54,289

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 29 2018, 07:08 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


We have seen on numerous occasions a pump fake in regards to the +PNA. Apply my rule for reading the telly graphics...

QUOTE
Forecast high, verification low. Forecast low, verification high


Euro


GFS

  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323355 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 09:25 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Add the latest GWO forecast drop to supporting severe weather.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323344 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 01:57 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


Gary Lezak finally got the LRC, or Cycling Pattern Hypothesis, published. Have a gander.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323317 · Replies: · Views: 573,852

jdrenken
Posted on: Mar 28 2018, 11:30 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,582
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521


CPC temp hazards...
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2323308 · Replies: · Views: 84,100

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