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> Dec. 29 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Post your OBS and last minute forecasts
NorEaster07
post Dec 28 2012, 08:03 AM
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It's OBS time again... this will be our 8th OBS thread this month!

Precip should enter the Mid Atlantic states within 14hrs in NC and VA as rain and then move northward into colder air and snow will start to spread out. You can see the 2 Streams disconnected here.




Attached Image

QUOTE
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS INTO THE MIDWEST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST. THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN STREAM STRENGTHENS
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE IT MERGES WITH
THE ENERGY COMING ACROSS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM. THE SURFACE LOW
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND TRACK NORTHEAST. AS
WITH EVERY COASTAL STORM, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF SNOW FOR THE AREA


Upton 655am
QUOTE
MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW RIGHT NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK


You can see the 26th snowstorm still in the picture here over Nova Scotia

Attached Image


Future Loop


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Dec 28 2012, 02:46 PM
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 28 2012, 08:28 AM
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looking like the models still have this as a widespread 2-4 type event for all but Cape Cod, who could see slightly more.

fast moving storm that should make everyone happy (who is here) with a nice light/mod event..

enjoy guys
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Bellhorn12
post Dec 28 2012, 08:38 AM
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This is on track to be the biggest "storm" in the Boston area since early 2011. Sad, but we will take it and hopefully indicative of a real Winter ahead.

Note; this will dust the resorts in NNE with a couple inches. Many are well above seasonal norms for 2012-13.


--------------------
Winter, 2014-2015:

Nov 26; 3"
Nov 28; 3"
Jan 3; 3"
Jan 24; 7"
Jan 27; 29"
Jan 30; 2"
Feb 2; 17"
Feb 7-9; 19"
Feb 12; 2"
Feb 15; 17"
Feb 22; 3"
Feb 25; 2"
Mar 1; 2"

Season; 109"

Winter, 2013-2014, Snowfall - 79"
Winter, 2012-2013, Snowfall - 71"
Winter, 2011-2012, Snowfall - 9.5"
Winter, 2010-2011, Snowfall - 89.5"
Winter, 2009-2010, Snowfall - 40"
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Novachris
post Dec 28 2012, 08:40 AM
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Cross the streams!
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tdp146
post Dec 28 2012, 09:00 AM
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QUOTE(Novachris @ Dec 28 2012, 08:40 AM) *
Cross the streams!

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--------------------
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Alwaysready126
post Dec 28 2012, 09:07 AM
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from AmericanWX boards...

"12z NAM is coming in significantly more amplified with the height field on the east coast when compared to the 06z run. These differences aren't that slight, either...pretty significant and easy to see. "


--------------------
If every storm worked out the way we want it to, this wouldn't be fun anymore......
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 28 2012, 09:06 AM
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maybe its because i never follow nam runs, but wow do they come out slow ha..
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DiehardFF
post Dec 28 2012, 09:10 AM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Dec 28 2012, 09:07 AM) *
from AmericanWX boards...

"12z NAM is coming in significantly more amplified with the height field on the east coast when compared to the 06z run. These differences aren't that slight, either...pretty significant and easy to see. "

Closer to the coast IMO. Stronger over the BM. Good run possibly for PSU!!

This post has been edited by DiehardFF: Dec 28 2012, 09:10 AM


--------------------
PA FF/EMT
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LUCC
post Dec 28 2012, 09:10 AM
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12z NAM 30hr:


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 28 2012, 09:09 AM
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30 looks like it could be nice for coast and sne...

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam...bTSLPp06030.gif

nam tends to overdo precip but could be a nice trend
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Alwaysready126
post Dec 28 2012, 09:12 AM
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wow
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--------------------
If every storm worked out the way we want it to, this wouldn't be fun anymore......
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DiehardFF
post Dec 28 2012, 09:15 AM
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Better


--------------------
PA FF/EMT
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Alwaysready126
post Dec 28 2012, 09:16 AM
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solid 4-6 for everyone...up to 8+ in some according to NAM?!?!?! blink.gif


--------------------
If every storm worked out the way we want it to, this wouldn't be fun anymore......
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 28 2012, 09:13 AM
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QUOTE(DiehardFF @ Dec 28 2012, 09:15 AM) *


Better


i even get in on some of the fun upstate haha
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LUCC
post Dec 28 2012, 09:16 AM
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It's right there, anything can happen at this point. A 25-50 miles shift and a lot of people will be in business. I'll take my .50" qpf and run. biggrin.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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LUCC
post Dec 28 2012, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Dec 28 2012, 09:12 AM) *
wow

Some good trending going on.....


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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baltimorewisher8...
post Dec 28 2012, 09:15 AM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Dec 28 2012, 09:16 AM) *
solid 4-6 for everyone...up to 8+ in some according to NAM?!?!?! blink.gif


im not being debbie downer here but be cautious with the name qpf output as well as whatever map you might be looking at.. as many discussed during the last storm, nam tends to overdo qpf output and the maps are hardly representative...

that being said.. it does look like a 3-6 storm for many and potentially 6 + for parts of SNE and the cape
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LUCC
post Dec 28 2012, 09:18 AM
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.5-.75qpf right through CNJ:


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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DiehardFF
post Dec 28 2012, 09:20 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Dec 28 2012, 09:18 AM) *
.5-.75qpf right through CNJ:

Right through my part of bucks county too!


--------------------
PA FF/EMT
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telejunkie
post Dec 28 2012, 09:17 AM
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QUOTE(Bellhorn12 @ Dec 28 2012, 08:38 AM) *
This is on track to be the biggest "storm" in the Boston area since early 2011. Sad, but we will take it and hopefully indicative of a real Winter ahead.

Note; this will dust the resorts in NNE with a couple inches. Many are well above seasonal norms for 2012-13.


here in CNE, will take whatever snow mother nature can throw at us. We're still well behind the eight ball in snow totals, but catching up fast...
Definitely nice trend on the NAM. Way more digging of the trough on this run


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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