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> Dec. 14-16 MidAtl/NE Storm, Possibility: Longe range (8-15 days out)
mike82140
post Dec 2 2013, 09:16 AM
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The GFS has been consistently showing a storm around the time period.

The NAO and AO look to be trending more and more negative, along with forecasts showing -NAO around this time period, and some forecasts showing the AO to be well in the negative range, or at least slightly negative around this time period as well. PNA however is forecasted to be more negative, though is predicted to begin a positive trend around mid-December.

If the NAO, and AO are negative around this storm's time period, and there is only a slightly negative/+PNA, many parts of the region could get some good snow from this storm.

Here are a few maps from the 6z GFS, hours 300-324:

This post has been edited by mike82140: Dec 4 2013, 01:25 PM
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mike82140
post Dec 2 2013, 09:26 AM
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Observed, and forecasted NAO, AO, and PNA values; courtesy of the NOAA:

This post has been edited by mike82140: Dec 2 2013, 09:28 AM
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 2 2013, 10:51 AM
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No love for the EPO? It's been one of the key players driving our pattern this fall and this month, and doesn't seem to be getting much credit for its role in preventing us from torching in November and December...

This is from November 27 since ESRL doesn't seem to have updated their outlook during Thanksgiving weekend, although it shows the idea that it's the anomalous strong -EPO that's keeping our early month pattern the way it is, and based on latest outlooks it seems to moderate beyond 12/15 or so as ridging retrogrades west towards E Siberia or W Alaska with a GOA low likely developing, although I currently doubt the -EPO pattern completely collapsing. Until that time period though, we still have occasional storminess opportunities with this being one of them.

I'm not a fan of the CPC outlooks, and of simply using the given teleconnection values as they're given since the upper level pattern itself is a better indicator of the actual setup; the pattern still favors a continuation of the -PNA pattern, and the NAO and AO moderating to neutral but that appears to be more so due to weak east based ridging as opposed to Davis Strait ridging which would be a much more favorable central-west based -NAO.


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Alwaysready126
post Dec 2 2013, 11:03 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 2 2013, 10:51 AM) *
No love for the EPO? It's been one of the key players driving our pattern this fall and this month, and doesn't seem to be getting much credit for its role in preventing us from torching in November and December...

This is from November 27 since ESRL doesn't seem to have updated their outlook during Thanksgiving weekend, although it shows the idea that it's the anomalous strong -EPO that's keeping our early month pattern the way it is, and based on latest outlooks it seems to moderate beyond 12/15 or so as ridging retrogrades west towards E Siberia or W Alaska with a GOA low likely developing, although I currently doubt the -EPO pattern completely collapsing. Until that time period though, we still have occasional storminess opportunities with this being one of them.

I'm not a fan of the CPC outlooks, and of simply using the given teleconnection values as they're given since the upper level pattern itself is a better indicator of the actual setup; the pattern still favors a continuation of the -PNA pattern, and the NAO and AO moderating to neutral but that appears to be more so due to weak east based ridging as opposed to Davis Strait ridging which would be a much more favorable central-west based -NAO.


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NYC..Should we expect a rebound in the PNA if a GOA low develops?


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If every storm worked out the way we want it to, this wouldn't be fun anymore......
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 2 2013, 01:45 PM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Dec 2 2013, 11:03 AM) *
NYC..Should we expect a rebound in the PNA if a GOA low develops?

It looks likely; the latest models try to make more of a zonal flow as the GOA low drops south and the -PNA moderates, although I'm not sure about any +PNA. If the Atlantic does help us out with some more ridging near Greenland, the zonal flow wouldn't be as bad; the same goes for the possibility of the models exaggerating the intensity and duration of any -EPO moderation.
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NorEaster07
post Dec 2 2013, 03:55 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 2 2013, 10:51 AM) *
No love for the EPO?



EPO since 1990. If this was day trading I'd be screaming SELL...or SHORT! Looks like maybe a double top and new highs it just made before the potential drop. I also see a lower low down there as well

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NE MA Weather
post Dec 2 2013, 07:34 PM
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Last time the NAO was below -1 was the end of October...

Last time the PNA was above 1? Well on that chart not anytime since August.


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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telejunkie
post Dec 4 2013, 08:25 AM
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time to start talking about this potential...Euro long range brewing up something interesting...one system off the MA coast and another developing down in the GOM. 6z GFS has a system slide off the Carolina coast on the 12th without coming up the coast. Teles still not all that favorable...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Dec 4 2013, 08:27 AM
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Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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NorEaster07
post Dec 4 2013, 01:19 PM
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GFS12z 925mb temps/surface map Hr300


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LoDelWayne
post Dec 4 2013, 01:44 PM
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Henry M now saying there is possibly two storms. One the 14th and one the 16th with the latter being the BIG one!


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LoDelWayne
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NYCSuburbs
post Dec 4 2013, 01:47 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 4 2013, 01:19 PM) *
GFS12z 925mb temps/surface map Hr300


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Another positive this year is that I already lost count of the number of fantasy blizzards the GFS showed over the last few weeks... last year we barely even had fantasy blizzards to watch for in the very long range.
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Alwaysready126
post Dec 4 2013, 02:08 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 4 2013, 01:47 PM) *
Another positive this year is that I already lost count of the number of fantasy blizzards the GFS showed over the last few weeks... last year we barely even had fantasy blizzards to watch for in the very long range.


That is some storm....that said, is it a concern that not many ens members are showing this type of solution?


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jordan4385
post Dec 4 2013, 02:38 PM
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http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail9/USMD0195


WOW!

60% of rain / snow / wind chance this far out? what do they know? smile.gif

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Dec 4 2013, 02:38 PM


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20th anniversary tripple phaser ?
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kpk33x
post Dec 4 2013, 02:45 PM
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QUOTE(jordan4385 @ Dec 4 2013, 02:38 PM) *
http://www.weather.com/weather/wxdetail9/USMD0195
WOW!

60% of rain / snow / wind chance this far out? what do they know? smile.gif


weather.com? They know hype wink.gif

I'd like to see how things set up from this weekend's event through the 9th. If the widespread cold regime currently modeled for later next week does pan out, chances go up that we see this event evolve from fantasy land into possibility land. Pattern needs to become less progressive.

This post has been edited by kpk33x: Dec 4 2013, 02:46 PM


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Spring/Summer 2018 - Mahomet, IL

# of 90 degree days to date: 11

Highest temp to date: 97F (Mahomet), 96F (Airport)

# of severe events/description to date: 3
5/9 - severe warned T-storm - wind/pea sized hail.
6/10 - severe T-storm - lightning/heavy rain.
6/10 - tornado warning - lightning/heavy rain/40-50 MPH winds
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LoDelWayne
post Dec 4 2013, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(kpk33x @ Dec 4 2013, 02:45 PM) *
weather.com? They know hype wink.gif

I'd like to see how things set up from this weekend's event through the 9th. If the widespread cold regime currently modeled for later next week does pan out, chances go up that we see this event evolve from fantasy land into possibility land. Pattern needs to become less progressive.

Absolutely right on that!


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LoDelWayne
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Snobal
post Dec 4 2013, 04:12 PM
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if this one doesnt pan out ( i think it will ) then there is going to be another huge threat on holiday week, that is the one i feel will deliver the goods and put a smile on our face. i think in time the southeast ridge is going to break down a bit and allow more cold and snow into the region, i have been thinking this for a while now, my forecast had included a cooler then avg fall and signifacant snows in late fall/early winter.


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Annual Snowfall:
17'/18' = 54"( I am still counting)
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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east coast storm
post Dec 4 2013, 04:35 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Dec 4 2013, 01:19 PM) *
GFS12z 925mb temps/surface map Hr300


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Would that be a miller type of storm forming in the gulf later next week, and moving
up along the EC?
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WinterWolf
post Dec 4 2013, 06:00 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ Dec 4 2013, 04:35 PM) *
Would that be a miller type of storm forming in the gulf later next week, and moving
up along the EC?



Yes. If it forms in the gulf and rides up the coast it's referred to as a Miller-A. And that one looks like that if it were to happen.
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east coast storm
post Dec 4 2013, 06:21 PM
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QUOTE(WinterWolf @ Dec 4 2013, 06:00 PM) *
Yes. If it forms in the gulf and rides up the coast it's referred to as a Miller-A. And that one looks like that if it were to happen.

Thanks for your reply. Could be interesting later next week.
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LoDelWayne
post Dec 4 2013, 06:26 PM
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This could be a very interesting scenario, especially if enough arctic air gets in. Maybe Mid-Atlantic gets some action too! And Christmas week might even be a white one!!


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LoDelWayne
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