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> Mar 27-28th MidAtl/NE Spring Storm, Shot range 0-3 days forecast & discussion
MaineJay
post Mar 22 2017, 06:37 AM
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Torturing folks with another thread. Looks like we will see a bit of a wave train rolling through. Not a ton of amplification, but who knows.

ECMWF

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GFS

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UKie (pregame)

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 27 2017, 05:31 AM


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2017, 06:40 AM
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GEFS ensemble lows

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ECMWF ensembles with spread

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Same view of GEFS

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Mar 22 2017, 06:41 AM


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Maybe the hokey pokey really is what it's all about.

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telejunkie
post Mar 22 2017, 07:02 AM
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Beat me to it MJ, was going to open the thread if 12z GFS showed it too. Originally I thought this was the final bundle of energy from the cut-off low, but it does look to be a separate s/w bundle traversing. 0z GFS:

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 22 2017, 07:05 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
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Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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Undertakerson
post Mar 22 2017, 11:42 AM
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12z GFS FWIW (the most wintry time panel)

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 22 2017, 11:42 AM
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risingriver
post Mar 22 2017, 12:01 PM
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Looks good for the NE, but calling this a MA storm is pushing the envelope. Good luck to our NY and NE breathren still in snow mode.

I'm getting 70s in Virginia on Saturday and am glad spring is returning after taking most of this month off. ohmy.gif
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SnowMan11
post Mar 22 2017, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Mar 22 2017, 01:01 PM) *
Looks good for the NE, but calling this a MA storm is pushing the envelope. Good luck to our NY and NE breathren still in snow mode.

I'm getting 70s in Virginia on Saturday and am glad spring is returning after taking most of this month off. ohmy.gif



Not really. Lets see where we stand a few days from now.


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psu1313
post Mar 22 2017, 03:16 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 22 2017, 02:04 PM) *
Not really. Lets see where we stand a few days from now.


You should have led with your second comment about thread titles. With that said it also depends how you define mid-Atlantic. In my definition, it's PA, NJ, MD, VA, DE. Others believe it's slightly further north including NY and not VA and others believe PA and NJ are out and NC is in.

Alas, northern PA has a shot at snow, especially at elevation and MA is acceptable. lol
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joeman
post Mar 22 2017, 03:35 PM
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MidAtl/NE Winter Storm

its a large area to cover


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gloryboy1417
post Mar 22 2017, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Mar 22 2017, 04:16 PM) *
You should have led with your second comment about thread titles. With that said it also depends how you define mid-Atlantic. In my definition, it's PA, NJ, MD, VA, DE. Others believe it's slightly further north including NY and not VA and others believe PA and NJ are out and NC is in.

Alas, northern PA has a shot at snow, especially at elevation and MA is acceptable. lol


This has been debated so many times in the past, its not changing how the areas are defined.



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Undertakerson
post Mar 22 2017, 04:03 PM
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QUOTE(gloryboy1417 @ Mar 22 2017, 04:38 PM) *
This has been debated so many times in the past, its not changing how the areas are defined.

Yep - that is why I try to add other commonly understood boundaries - such as N of I-80, or S. of Mason Dixon or S/N of 40N. Others use I-90 as a reference point.

Point being, this forum has set the boundaries of this sub forum to include VA/WV up to and including ME. Guidelines say you cannot further sub-divide the region and be within bounds.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 22 2017, 04:04 PM
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MaineJay
post Mar 22 2017, 06:15 PM
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CPC analogs advertising quite the split flow regime.

Attached Image


I always find it amusing how the debate always goes this time of year.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 22 2017, 06:18 PM
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Ahhh still trying I see. Looks like NNE (sorry Canada) is about to get some stuff again. I already know where my mind is at after this past storm we got.

laugh.gif


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shane o mac
post Mar 22 2017, 07:12 PM
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Still 7 days out folks lol no need to jump to conclusions let it play out , and if someone does get snow its a "bonus" we are almost in april ..
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telejunkie
post Mar 22 2017, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Mar 22 2017, 07:18 PM) *
Ahhh still trying I see. Looks like NNE (sorry Canada) is about to get some stuff again. I already know where my mind is at after this past storm we got.

laugh.gif

Something like this... wink.gif
Attached Image

PS Congrat SWH!!

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 22 2017, 07:48 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7" 4/1 - 4"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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so_whats_happeni...
post Mar 22 2017, 08:12 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 22 2017, 08:42 PM) *
Something like this... wink.gif
Attached Image

PS Congrat SWH!!



Hahahaha I was but now im looking toward warmth and severe weather wink.gif You guys can keep your snow. Im about to get myself a nice camera from my tax return to start getting a catalog of nice weather pics going.


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jdrenken
post Mar 22 2017, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 22 2017, 01:04 PM) *
Not really. Lets see where we stand a few days from now.


Can't...stop...laughing. It took you less than 24 hours on the 22nd-23rd storm to call it.

QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 18 2017, 09:13 PM) *
It keeps trending northward. I would watch that especially with cold air in place.


QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 19 2017, 06:13 PM) *
This threat isnt really a threat for anyone



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SteelerFan420
post Mar 23 2017, 01:54 AM
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We must start talking sun angles this time of the year tongue.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Mar 23 2017, 06:40 AM
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032306z gefs mslp placement with spread


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PoconoSnow
post Mar 23 2017, 06:56 AM
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032300z Eps mean with norm and hi res op std spread


This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Mar 23 2017, 06:56 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Mar 23 2017, 12:12 PM
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12z gfs tighter with lp but warmer than b4 even in ME



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