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> November 2010 Mid Atl/NE Discussion, Temp/Precip/Pattern
windman
post Nov 5 2010, 03:24 PM
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So far the month has been dead... And the models continue to show nothing but a bunch of weak systems moving through... This is not too atypical of a La Nina year, though... In 2007, we didn't have our first major storm system till middle December. Hopefully we don't have to wait AS long this year. dry.gif
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Removed_Member_89iroczcamaro_*
post Nov 5 2010, 04:28 PM
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Looks like it is going to be another warm November sad.gif
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Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*
post Nov 5 2010, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Oct 26 2010, 04:04 PM) *
The most snow I've had in November in the last few years was a trace. In the same few Novembers the central and southern Mid Atlantic got several 1-3" storms.


1-3" storm? laugh.gif Anyway, last winters event was rare as we also had around 2" of snow in the middle of October which is verry rare. I bet NYC won't see a 2-4"+ event until mid december. Just a little to warm.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 5 2010, 04:52 PM
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QUOTE
November marks the end of fall and beginning of winter here in Central New York. It's a transition month. Central New York typically sees several snowy days in November. The average snowfall is about 9.8" for the month. Snow that does fall early in the month has a hard time sticking around. As we head into the month, snow can and often does linger around as average temperatures continue to cool down.



http://www.wktv.com/weather/blogs









--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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Removed_Member_StormTopia.com_*
post Nov 5 2010, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(89iroczcamaro @ Nov 5 2010, 05:28 PM) *
Looks like it is going to be another warm November sad.gif


Remember our warm November last year and how it led to the biggest snowstorms in 90 years for the DC area?
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Hertz
post Nov 5 2010, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE(hckyplayer8 @ Nov 5 2010, 11:33 AM) *
Looks like a pretty good discharge of cold air is ready to be sent South...
...but with the PNA tanking
and the NAO not looking too negative...
...you can bet it won't be felt in the East CONUS.


sad.gif. Big time.

I'm here in Cleveland, OH...the models often show some of the cold air making it here in a little over a week but just barely...how long (in weeks, I'm guessing) do you think it'll take to pop this upcoming round of SE ridging for good? Or do you think this one's to stay all winter and the forecast of cold in the east later November/December should be scrapped?

The fact that all the models have been consistently showing this SE ridge holding even to tremendous pressure is getting me concerned - is there still hope for it to break for late November/December? I really hope this current shot isn't it already for cold in the east! sad.gif

I remember seeing an article on AccuWeather main news yesterday that hinted on cold getting into the east the last week of November...but do you guys think that f'in SE ridge is going to break by then? The fact that I can't see a downward trend in NAO/upward in PNA through the 14-day is especially concerning. Are there any longer range outlooks available for this indexes?

Well, in the mean time, I can only hope the cold does, just barely, make it to Cleveland. Is this the next November 1985? (If you're not familiar, that November was record cold in the Northwest part of the country and record warm in the Southeast.)



That's the latest 384 hr GFS. 16 days out, from 18Z today. I absolutely HATE when cold front parallel the flow like this. Earlier it has the front making it a bit further (into my area) but they're weaker and still stalll before hitting the coast.

This post has been edited by Hertz: Nov 5 2010, 06:08 PM


--------------------
Let's hope this winter actually happens!

Severe Wx 2013 Cuyahoga Cty


Severe thunderstorm watches: 6/12-6/13 (night), 6/25, 7/10, 7/23, 10/31-11/1 (night)
Tornado watches: 11/17
Tornado warnings: 6/12, 7/10
Slight Risk days: 4/10, 5/21, 5/22, 5/28, 6/1, 6/12, 6/24, 6/25, 6/26, 7/10, 7/19, 7/23, 8/7, 8/27, 9/11, 9/20, 10/6, 10/31
Moderate Risk days: 11/17
High Risk days:
Strongest thunderstorm to date (at CLE airport): 57 mph on 6/25 & 11/17 (thunderless convection on 11/17)
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TheMaineMan
post Nov 6 2010, 05:01 PM
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I remember the warm November we had last year, and it led to... 12 months straight of overall above-average temperature months, so far... 13 if this month is above average as well.

What concerns me about this winter is that I expected temperatures in Alaska to be tanking by now, yet they are remaining well above average. So much for cool air pooling early. dry.gif


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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hckyplayer8
post Nov 8 2010, 10:52 AM
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More Euro Weekly Madness







--------------------
The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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SnowMan11
post Nov 8 2010, 11:50 PM
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0z GFS is really cold in the long range. A nice -EPO sets up at the end of the run.
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irishbri74
post Nov 9 2010, 12:06 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Nov 8 2010, 11:50 PM) *
0z GFS is really cold in the long range. A nice -EPO sets up at the end of the run.


Drops the PV just North of the lakes.... WOuld go in hand with the CPC's outlook on the AO dipping negative..
CPC AO OUTLOOK





--------------------
carpe diem


Live free or die

Don't be a weenie or i Will be forced to ROAST YOU!
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hckyplayer8
post Nov 15 2010, 06:10 PM
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Euro Weeklies




--------------------
The views and opinions expressed in my posts are of my own and do not reflect the views of the USAF.
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TheMaineMan
post Nov 27 2010, 08:36 AM
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Curious to see if overall Nov temps are above or below average.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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Noreastericane
post Nov 28 2010, 04:08 PM
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It looks like we're going to finish November with above average temperatures- not by much, but still above nonetheless. That makes for nine (yes, count 'em, nine!) consecutive months of above average temperatures in Maryland. Not as warm as last November though.

It seems to be coming from the lows not being very low rather than the highs being very high (if that makes sense).


--------------------
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d-_-b
post Nov 28 2010, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(Noreastericane @ Nov 28 2010, 04:08 PM) *
It looks like we're going to finish November with above average temperatures- not by much, but still above nonetheless. That makes for nine (yes, count 'em, nine!) consecutive months of above average temperatures in Maryland. Not as warm as last November though.

It seems to be coming from the lows not being very low rather than the highs being very high (if that makes sense).


Well this will be our 11th straight month of Above Average temps here in Boston.


--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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TheMaineMan
post Nov 29 2010, 08:13 PM
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Makes a lot of sense actually... last winter the real blowtorch was in the LOW temperatures, which were often as high as 30 degrees ABOVE AVERAGE! When your average low is 2 and you can't even go below freezing at night in January, that is very warm! Highs were usually only 5 degrees or so above average.


But to be on topic, if this ends up an above-average month, it will be the unprecedented 13th straight month of above-average temps here.


--------------------
Average snowfall: 81 inches
2007-2008 snowfall: 102 inches
2008-2009 snowfall: 71 inches
2009-2010 snowfall: 47 inches
2010-2011 snowfall: 99.5 inches
2011-2012 snowfall: 58.5 inches
2012-2013 snowfall: 78 inches
2013-2014 snowfall so far: 40 inches

Coldest temp of 2013-2014 winter so far: -15 F


Total snowfall 2013-2014 season:
October: None
November: 1 inch
December: 31 inches
January: 8 inches
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