Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

25 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2016-17 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow Thread, Forecasts and Observations: October 15th-May 1st
NorEaster07
post Oct 16 2016, 06:00 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,586
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Hope you don't mind I started this thread. Here is the link to last years 2015-16 Season long Lake Effect Thread.

GFS6z hinting at some Lake Effect snows Monday night the 25th

Attached Image


Accu Map forecast

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Oct 16 2016, 06:01 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Oct 16 2016, 06:50 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,278
Joined: 17-December 08
From: Fulton NY
Member No.: 16,547





Perfect WNW flow, probably a little to warm for snow along the lake shore..Plenty of time to watch unfold..Thanks for making this thread biggrin.gif Almost time to reup my weatherbell subscription lol

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Oct 16 2016, 06:55 AM


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current
2017-2018 Snowfall 4.6 (as of 11/23)
2016-2017 Snowfall 160.2
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 6 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"
6)02/03- 226.1
My PWS
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ohiobuckeye45
post Oct 21 2016, 09:57 AM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 24,010
Joined: 17-February 08
From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus)
Member No.: 13,767





won't be long and this loop will have more meaning (looking to lake MI; not the deform band parked overhead laugh.gif )

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Oct 21 2016, 09:58 AM
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JoeyD
post Oct 21 2016, 02:42 PM
Post #4




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 207
Joined: 15-December 12
From: Hiram, OH
Member No.: 27,336





QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Oct 21 2016, 10:57 AM) *
won't be long and this loop will have more meaning (looking to lake MI; not the deform band parked overhead laugh.gif )

Yeah, this would have been a good track for us OH peeps in a couple of months.


--------------------
It's all relative...especially the weather.
Residing 1235' up a north facing slope, where the highs are low and the lows are high.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Oct 22 2016, 02:36 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 16 2016, 07:00 AM) *
Hope you don't mind I started this thread. Here is the link to last years 2015-16 Season long Lake Effect Thread.

No problem at all. This thread's format matches up with the one from last year so I think we are good to go. We are quickly approaching my favorite time of year.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Oct 22 2016, 02:45 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





Well it is that time of the year again "snowbelt-ers", lake effect season is just around the corner. Just remember, we can only go up from last year! Best of luck to all my fellow 'snowbelt-ers' this season!

This post has been edited by OhioBlizzard: Oct 22 2016, 02:53 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Oct 22 2016, 03:18 AM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





On a side note, the setup we had overnight was pretty sweet with a robust Type III band extending into northeast Ohio. Would have been awesome to see about a month from now. The IR Satellite illustrates this band nicely, with the colder cloud tops clearly visible, i.e. deeper convection associated with the band.

EDIT: You must click on and enlarge the top two images to get them to loop.

This post has been edited by OhioBlizzard: Oct 22 2016, 03:20 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image

 


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PSUWeatherNewbie
post Oct 23 2016, 07:16 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,455
Joined: 24-January 09
From: Harwich, MA
Member No.: 17,084





My grandmother lives by herself in western NY (BUF) area. She is around 78 years old and is sick with various problems. I just hope I can alert her to any potential snowfall that might occur over her area when the time comes. My cousin is 25 now and she can take care of her, but she has a company plow the neighborhood.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kurt990
post Oct 27 2016, 02:49 PM
Post #9




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 8-January 08
From: Albany,NY
Member No.: 12,158





Hi All, Nice to see everyone again for another year. Can't be worse than last year thats for sure. The snow flying outside today promted me to check and see if our lake effect thread had been set up again for this year and indeed the usual suspects have.

Thought i share a little bit about myself again so this year when posts are read they know where i am and stuff. I live in Albany. I snowmobile in the winter and have a camp about hour northwest of Albany on The Great Sacanadaga Lake. I also have a buddy whose camp I use quite frequently in Foresport which is the southern edge of the Tug Hill. My love for snowstorms came about when I was little and my dad did snow removal. I found it so cool being out in the middle of the night of a city and for miles no one was on the road except fellow snow removers. Ever since I have been tracking them and still do snow removal on the side for extra money and for fun.

Look forward to this season and can't wait to read and contribute to the season long thread and espeically looking forward to Ohio Blizzards write ups like last year.

This post has been edited by kurt990: Oct 27 2016, 02:50 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Oct 28 2016, 07:28 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





QUOTE(kurt990 @ Oct 27 2016, 03:49 PM) *
Hi All, Nice to see everyone again for another year. Can't be worse than last year thats for sure. The snow flying outside today promted me to check and see if our lake effect thread had been set up again for this year and indeed the usual suspects have.

Thought i share a little bit about myself again so this year when posts are read they know where i am and stuff. I live in Albany. I snowmobile in the winter and have a camp about hour northwest of Albany on The Great Sacanadaga Lake. I also have a buddy whose camp I use quite frequently in Foresport which is the southern edge of the Tug Hill. My love for snowstorms came about when I was little and my dad did snow removal. I found it so cool being out in the middle of the night of a city and for miles no one was on the road except fellow snow removers. Ever since I have been tracking them and still do snow removal on the side for extra money and for fun.

Look forward to this season and can't wait to read and contribute to the season long thread and espeically looking forward to Ohio Blizzards write ups like last year.

Good to see you aboard for another season Kurt! Thanks for the nice words. I'm certainly looking forward to lake effect season and your snowmobiling pics cool.gif


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Oct 29 2016, 07:01 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,586
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864






Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Oct 29 2016, 07:20 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 17,127
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Oct 29 2016, 08:01 PM) *

Attached Image

Had a few good squalls here last winter. Wouldn't mind that again this year.


--------------------
First Flakes: 10/28/17 Watches:

First 1"+ of Snow:2.0" 12/9/17

Biggest Snowfall:2.0" 12/9/17

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Nov 1 2016, 09:43 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





That time of the year again at which I will start posting the Great Lakes water temperatures. I'll do this at the beginning of each week through April, and will start posting ice-cover data when applicable. I will post a close-up of Lake Erie as well. If anyone else wants another lake added in let me know and I will do so. In general, the lakes are well above normal and the warmest they have been in the past 6 years at the beginning of November. Water temps are overplayed at times in my opinion, but the above normal warmth could certainly help make for a robust early season event or two given the right setup.

11/1/2016 Water Temperatures

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image




This post has been edited by OhioBlizzard: Nov 1 2016, 10:49 AM


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 1 2016, 11:24 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,586
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864







QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Oct 29 2016, 08:20 PM) *
Had a few good squalls here last winter. Wouldn't mind that again this year.


Many of those squalls made it down here and that's always special to see. Lake Effect clouds are very picturesque.

QUOTE(OhioBlizzard @ Nov 1 2016, 10:43 AM) *
That time of the year again at which I will start posting the Great Lakes water temperatures. I'll do this at the beginning of each week through April, and will start posting ice-cover data when applicable. I will post a close-up of Lake Erie as well. If anyone else wants another lake added in let me know and I will do so. In general, the lakes are well above normal and the warmest they have been in the past 6 years at the beginning of November. Water temps are overplayed at times in my opinion, but the above normal warmth could certainly help make for a robust early season event or two given the right setup.

11/1/2016 Water Temperatures


Should be interesting.... I think it's a matter of when rather than a matter of if. But I have seen the lakes freeze up fast so gotta get some nice digs in before they do. Then again, Without persistent cold they wont freeze up fast and it does make for interesting setups. Didn't they stay unfrozen last year and we had some late Lake Effect events?

GFS12z has 2 upcoming shots this weekend.

Friday Afternoon 1st shot but I don't see any precip so probably no Lake Effect due to the core and axis too far east?

Attached Image


Sunday afternoon better chance off Lake Ontario, not Erie

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jpfalcon09
post Nov 1 2016, 12:29 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,350
Joined: 8-February 08
From: Toledo, OH
Member No.: 13,503





Scott Sabol at FOX8 in Cleveland is predicting a 5-10" increase of LES across NE OH and NW PA.

https://twitter.com/ScottSabolFOX8/status/7...6208896/photo/1


--------------------
Expertise in Winter weather, bring on the snow!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
kpk33x
post Nov 1 2016, 01:36 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 1,816
Joined: 18-July 05
From: Mahomet, IL
Member No.: 1,100





In the Winter thread I have a (rather lengthy) forecast post where I forecasted areas downwind of the lakes should be above avg snow due to lake effect, especially early, as an earlier starting winter blows some cold air across the warm water.

I have only had the pleasure of being in a heavy lake effect band once - in Lansing, MI in Dec 2000. It was strange being in whiteout conditions when Detroit was reporting partly cloudy.


--------------------
Winter 2017 - Mahomet, IL

Snowfall:
October: T
November: T
December: T (Dec. 10th)

# subzero lows to date: 0
Lowest temperature: 13F
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JoeyD
post Nov 2 2016, 06:13 AM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 207
Joined: 15-December 12
From: Hiram, OH
Member No.: 27,336





I haven't seen this "forecast" before.
http://www.weather.gov/cle/news_freezeupoutlook


--------------------
It's all relative...especially the weather.
Residing 1235' up a north facing slope, where the highs are low and the lows are high.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Nov 2 2016, 09:54 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 1 2016, 12:24 PM) *
Many of those squalls made it down here and that's always special to see. Lake Effect clouds are very picturesque.
Should be interesting.... I think it's a matter of when rather than a matter of if. But I have seen the lakes freeze up fast so gotta get some nice digs in before they do. Then again, Without persistent cold they wont freeze up fast and it does make for interesting setups. Didn't they stay unfrozen last year and we had some late Lake Effect events?

GFS12z has 2 upcoming shots this weekend.

Friday Afternoon 1st shot but I don't see any precip so probably no Lake Effect due to the core and axis too far east?

Sunday afternoon better chance off Lake Ontario, not Erie

Hopefully so. Worst case scenario was a setup like last year where there was primarily just marginally cold at times throughout November/December which just slowly bled the warmth out of the lakes without any blockbuster events. There were some decent events, but it would be nice to have a real noteworthy one or two this year. 'Primetime' lake effect season is rapidly approaching and relatively speaking does not last that long (through late January into early February).

Lake Erie did briefly have noteworthy ice at times, but it never froze completely. There was some lake effect later in the year, but having some from time to time late in the winter/early spring in general isn't too uncommon.

Yeah the trough axis is a bit too far to the east. I wouldn't completely rule out some brief light activity off of Lake Ontario in the form of some light rain or flurries, but even that may be stretching it as instability will be marginal and the low-levels quickly dry out.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Nov 5 2016, 11:52 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,586
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





This thread should get some heartbeat next weekend. We'll see. Coldest airmass of the season. Deep enough to start the machines up.

Even down to Kentucky. Gotta see how the trough is orientated and how far it digs though.

https://twitter.com/Kentuckyweather/status/...940774731366401


Attached Image

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OhioBlizzard
post Nov 5 2016, 01:08 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,944
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Northern Portage County Ohio (NE Ohio)
Member No.: 16,592





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 5 2016, 12:52 PM) *
This thread should get some heartbeat next weekend. We'll see. Coldest airmass of the season. Deep enough to start the machines up.

Even down to Kentucky. Gotta see how the trough is orientated and how far it digs though.

https://twitter.com/Kentuckyweather/status/...940774731366401


Attached Image

The setup on the 12Z GFS is rather tasty. Autoconvective lapse rates through a decent portion (relatively speaking) of the BL. Add in potential upstream pre-conditioning and there could possibly be some rather deep lake induced convection with such a scenario. Regardless, with surface water temps as warms as they are, it will not take too chilly of an air mass for the lakes to become active. Certainly something to keep an eye on.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

25 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 11th December 2017 - 02:50 AM