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> 2016-17 Season Long GL/NE Lake Effect Snow Thread, Forecasts and Observations: October 15th-May 1st
NorEaster07
post Nov 6 2016, 05:56 AM
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Here we go.....1st biggy of the season this weekend?

Lets see... record warm, lengthy warmth, above normal Lake waters and then ARCTIC BLAST... wonder what that means. Lol


Attached Image


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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NorEaster07
post Nov 6 2016, 07:27 AM
Post #22




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https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/795240318606028801

"Airmass next wknd across the Northeast will be conducive to Lake Effect snow off Erie+Ontario. Could be significant pending depth of cold"



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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NorEaster07
post Nov 6 2016, 08:32 AM
Post #23




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https://twitter.com/EricWFMJ/status/795254393138511872

Attached Image


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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bradjl2009
post Nov 6 2016, 08:54 PM
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I've been noticing on the GFS the last few runs since Friday evening, it's been pretty constant about showing a lake effect stream of sorts through NE Ohio and Western PA including the Pittsburgh metro. It's only showing an inch or show but I've found the consistency of it appearing interesting. The few inches it's showing in update NY is also during next weekend's time frame as well.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Nov 6 2016, 08:55 PM
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SyracuseStorm
post Nov 6 2016, 10:53 PM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Nov 6 2016, 08:54 PM) *
I've been noticing on the GFS the last few runs since Friday evening, it's been pretty constant about showing a lake effect stream of sorts through NE Ohio and Western PA including the Pittsburgh metro. It's only showing an inch or show but I've found the consistency of it appearing interesting. The few inches it's showing in update NY is also during next weekend's time frame as well.



Yeah...it's good that it is showing up but as you know, it is so hard to pinpoint where LES bands are going to set up. Should be somewhat of an interesting week as things unfold and thanks for sharing graphic!


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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 7 2016, 01:36 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 6 2016, 05:56 AM) *
Here we go.....1st biggy of the season this weekend?

Lets see... record warm, lengthy warmth, above normal Lake waters and then ARCTIC BLAST... wonder what that means. Lol


Attached Image



QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Nov 6 2016, 07:27 AM) *
https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/795240318606028801

"Airmass next wknd across the Northeast will be conducive to Lake Effect snow off Erie+Ontario. Could be significant pending depth of cold"

A parameter that they are overlooking that certainly could be significant in terms of severity of lake effect is that of low level moisture. Unfortunately this could be a limiting factor even if sizable lake induced instability is present.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 7 2016, 01:55 AM
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QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Nov 6 2016, 08:54 PM) *
I've been noticing on the GFS the last few runs since Friday evening, it's been pretty constant about showing a lake effect stream of sorts through NE Ohio and Western PA including the Pittsburgh metro. It's only showing an inch or show but I've found the consistency of it appearing interesting. The few inches it's showing in update NY is also during next weekend's time frame as well.

The higher totals through NE OH/W PA it has been depicting is the result of a upstream Lake Huron connection, Type III snow band, that the model has been progging. Its great to have some snow opportunities to finally talk about! Thanks for posting, nice to have someone from the Pittsburgh area in here.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 7 2016, 11:26 PM
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11/7/2016 Water Temperatures

Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 14 2016, 11:39 AM
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this thread should start hopping with the weekend potential being the first flakes of the year

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Nov 14 2016, 11:40 AM
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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 14 2016, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Nov 14 2016, 11:39 AM) *
this thread should start hopping with the weekend potential being the first flakes of the year

Hard to believe we are in to mid November and most of the snowbelts including those in the far north (i.e. UP) have not yet had any measurable snow or in some locations even seen flakes. Too far out to get into specifics, but it would be nice if at least some locations in the belts could land some minor accumulations going through the weekend. I have not looked into the stats for this, but its probably fairly rare to be in mid-November with most if not all of belts north of 45 still waiting on their first measurable snow or even flakes for that matter.


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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kurt990
post Nov 14 2016, 02:26 PM
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QUOTE(OhioBlizzard @ Nov 14 2016, 02:10 PM) *
Hard to believe we are in to mid November and most of the snowbelts including those in the far north (i.e. UP) have not yet had any measurable snow or in some locations even seen flakes. Too far out to get into specifics, but it would be nice if at least some locations in the belts could land some minor accumulations going through the weekend. I have not looked into the stats for this, but its probably fairly rare to be in mid-November with most if not all of belts north of 45 still waiting on their first measurable snow or even flakes for that matter.


That is interesting since we here back in late October had our first measurable snowfall in Albany with my camp picking up 4 inches. Of course it all melted a few days later but nevertheless got our taste.

Should be interesting with this weekend coming up to see if we can get the right setup. GFS has been bullish on this event, which idk if that is a good or bad thing haha.

Should be posting alot more now that the season looks to really start to get going

This post has been edited by kurt990: Nov 14 2016, 02:28 PM
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bradjl2009
post Nov 14 2016, 03:27 PM
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QUOTE(OhioBlizzard @ Nov 14 2016, 03:10 PM) *
Hard to believe we are in to mid November and most of the snowbelts including those in the far north (i.e. UP) have not yet had any measurable snow or in some locations even seen flakes. Too far out to get into specifics, but it would be nice if at least some locations in the belts could land some minor accumulations going through the weekend. I have not looked into the stats for this, but its probably fairly rare to be in mid-November with most if not all of belts north of 45 still waiting on their first measurable snow or even flakes for that matter.

When do you usually get your first snowfall in NE Ohio? Down here we're around the point where it starts to become a possibility, but usually the first snowfall isn't more common until later in the month. If we have nothing still in about 10 or so days, it will begin to seem strange to me. GFS seems to want to bring us something Sunday and Monday, but it has temps above freezing for the most part so it won't amount to much as of today.

This post has been edited by bradjl2009: Nov 14 2016, 03:31 PM
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Nov 14 2016, 07:19 PM
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Kbuf

QUOTE
Monday across the region, the areas that will have likely Pops will
be across the hills of SW NYS, and east of Lake Ontario where in
addition to synoptic precipitation showers with the upper level
trough, there will also likely be a lake effect component and
upslope enhance precipitation component.


QUOTE
while Monday will be cooler with highs only in the
low to mid 30s. This cooler temperature profile will maintain much
of the precipitation Monday as snow showers.


Only 0.3" so far in Fulton, so we could use a little snow lol


--------------------
Seasonal Snowfall 95/96-Current (Avg 176.7")


2016-2017 Snowfall 159.4"(as of 3/18)
2015-2016 Snowfall 106.2"
Source

Top 5 snowiest winters of the past 20 years

1)95/96- 273.9"
2)03/04- 255.4"
3)10/11- 247.3"
4)00/01- 244.0"
5)06/07- 232.6"

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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 15 2016, 02:32 AM
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11/15/2016 Water Temperatures
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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OhioBlizzard
post Nov 15 2016, 02:53 AM
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QUOTE(kurt990 @ Nov 14 2016, 02:26 PM) *
That is interesting since we here back in late October had our first measurable snowfall in Albany with my camp picking up 4 inches. Of course it all melted a few days later but nevertheless got our taste.

Should be interesting with this weekend coming up to see if we can get the right setup. GFS has been bullish on this event, which idk if that is a good or bad thing haha.

Should be posting alot more now that the season looks to really start to get going


Nice total! I haven't done a thorough check, but I would say that your camp's area is probably one of the locations that has done the best thus far this season in the lakes region as I can't really recall much if any other measurable snow outside of that late October snow in your neck of the woods.

Yeah certainly quite a few question marks for the weekend yet. At least there is something to talk about though with as quiet as it has been thus far.

Good to hear. I will probably be checking in more often as well.

QUOTE(bradjl2009 @ Nov 14 2016, 03:27 PM) *
When do you usually get your first snowfall in NE Ohio? Down here we're around the point where it starts to become a possibility, but usually the first snowfall isn't more common until later in the month. If we have nothing still in about 10 or so days, it will begin to seem strange to me. GFS seems to want to bring us something Sunday and Monday, but it has temps above freezing for the most part so it won't amount to much as of today.


On average I would say the first flakes are in October for sure here, probably somewhere in the last week to 10 days of the month. As far as first measurable, that is hard to say. Most locations here average measurable snow in October, but if you would look at the average date for that, it could be skewed as you might have a few inches one year and other years not have it until a bit more in November.

This is just a guess as I have not done any averaging of data, but I would say the first measurable snow may average somewhere from the very end of October into the first 10 days or so of November. But that is just a ballpark idea on my part and that is for any snow 0.1" or greater. After the warmth of late, I'm definitely ready for some winter weather.

EDIT: Just found an article discussing this. According to this site (https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/first-snow-average-date) its November 10th for Cleveland which would likely be for the airport or Downtown which are at lower elevations and less favorable for lake effect than other areas of Northeast Ohio. Thus I think its safe to say that for those of use at higher elevation, somewhere around November 5th if not a couple days earlier is probably reasonable.

This post has been edited by OhioBlizzard: Nov 15 2016, 03:03 AM


--------------------
Great Lakes Lifer. Lake Effect Enthusiast. Earth's Most Unique Subregion. ...Its the Lake Effect.

Average Seasonal Snowfall IMBY: 92.3"
Updated for 2016-2017: Last Update 10-28-2016
2016-2017 Winter Total Thus Far: 0.0"
Current Snow Depth: 0"

Significant Events:

2015-2016 Winter Total: 52.3"
2013-2014 Winter Total: 97.5" --------------- 2014-2015 Winter Total: 72.0"
2011-2012 Winter Total: 56.0" --------------- 2012-2013 Winter Total: 64.2"
2009-2010 Winter Total: 91.1" --------------- 2010-2011 Winter Total: 130.0"

Best of 2010-2011 Winter Pictures are here! "A Year To Remember"
http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=25851
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NorEaster07
post Nov 15 2016, 09:34 AM
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https://twitter.com/bradrousseau/status/798534128521969664

"Neat little feature as well for southern #onwx late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Thinking warm lakes are playing a role here."



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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kurt990
post Nov 15 2016, 09:58 AM
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GFS total snowfall through Tuesday.. Not as Robust as yesterday for sure

This post has been edited by kurt990: Nov 15 2016, 09:59 AM
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JoeyD
post Nov 16 2016, 06:18 PM
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CLE's forecast for this weekend...

The rain will eventually change over to all snow in all areas. Not expecting any rain to mix with the snow even along the lakeshore toward sunrise. If the snow begins to accumulate which I expect it will, there is the potential for some significant snow accumulations so this will have to be watched over the next couple days since it is a combination lake effect and synoptic snow event. I am sticking close to persistence with temperatures for now as warm air pushes in followed by the strong cold air outbreak.


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Residing 1235' up a north facing slope, where the highs are low and the lows are high.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Nov 16 2016, 07:02 PM
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the ECM (at least per WB) has been going bonkers with this event. In some instances double, triple+ the GFS

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NorEaster07
post Nov 17 2016, 09:12 PM
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https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/799419696235823104

Attached Image


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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