Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

470 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> March 13-16 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter Blizzard, Possibility: Short range [1-3 day]
telejunkie
post Mar 7 2017, 04:25 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,758
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





Considering this is a separate trough as the Saturday-Sunday event, surprised nobody has started this a thread yet for this wave. Euro has been moderately aggressive with this trough gaining a neutral trough as it crosses through the OV sending the surface low on a track from Des Moines, IA towards Albany. 12z GFS seemed like it's coming around to the idea...little more dig, more moisture and there could be a nice stripe of white this lays down

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 11 2017, 11:30 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 80"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
colonel717
post Mar 7 2017, 04:27 PM
Post #2




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 390
Joined: 28-November 12
Member No.: 27,265





Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 04:40 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(telejunkie @ Mar 7 2017, 04:25 PM) *
Considering this is a separate trough as the Saturday-Sunday event, surprised nobody has started this a thread yet for this wave. Euro has been moderately aggressive with this trough gaining a neutral trough as it crosses through the OV sending the surface low on a track from Des Moines, IA towards Albany. 12z GFS seemed like it's coming around to the idea...little more dig, more moisture and there could be a nice stripe of white this lays down

Good call to open this thread. This could be its own system - but could also be, simply, the previous one delayed (as shown by the Canadian model).

Either way, we're covered - AND I don't have to be tempted to "tweak" dates.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
telejunkie
post Mar 7 2017, 04:44 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,758
Joined: 8-December 09
From: Manchester, VT (elev 800')
Member No.: 20,089





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 04:40 PM) *
Good call to open this thread. This could be its own system - but could also be, simply, the previous one delayed (as shown by the Canadian model).

Either way, we're covered - AND I don't have to be tempted to "tweak" dates.

haha...was thinking along similar lines. Think this was a piece of late breaking energy that was 'suppose' to help form that 12th-13th storm...too bad, cause a big one would really have been fun to track dry.gif


edit: not saying anything is written in stone...but the indications are there...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Mar 7 2017, 04:45 PM


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 80"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Mar 7 2017, 04:45 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,677
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 04:40 PM) *
Good call to open this thread. This could be its own system - but could also be, simply, the previous one delayed (as shown by the Canadian model).

Either way, we're covered - AND I don't have to be tempted to "tweak" dates.

As I mentioned in the other thread, the CMC is the only model absorbing all the energies into one large storm. The other models have two distinct separate storms.





Euro already posted and waiting on 18z GFS


--------------------

Winter '16-'17
3/14 - 7"
3/10/17 - 3"
2/9/17 - 4.5"

1/6-7/17 - 6"
1/5/17 - 2"

Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 05:21 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,417
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





18z GFS looking a little different this go round.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:22 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





QUOTE(LUCC @ Mar 7 2017, 04:45 PM) *
As I mentioned in the other thread, the CMC is the only model absorbing all the energies into one large storm. The other models have two distinct separate storms.





Euro already posted and waiting on 18z GFS

Well, as they all do, it's not looking too bad from this far out.


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 05:24 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,417
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 05:22 PM) *
Well, as they all do, it's not looking too bad from this far out.


Attached Image

Looking ahead on instantmaps it looks like it wants to get a coastal going. ohmy.gif



This post has been edited by phillyfan: Mar 7 2017, 05:25 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 05:27 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,417
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Interesting, probably primed for Mainejay after that point.



--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:27 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Attached Image


Interesting, probably most certainly primed for Mainejay after that point.



This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 7 2017, 05:29 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:30 PM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Strong storm s/e of OBX

Bombing east of the 40/70 BM -

Impressive.

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 7 2017, 05:31 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:32 PM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Mar 7 2017, 05:33 PM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,634
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 05:30 PM) *
Strong storm s/e of OBX

Bombing east of the 40/70 BM -

Impressive.


At least most models are pick8ng up on a storm coming up the coast....so it's a start


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:33 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Dropping like a boulder launched from the high dive. Drops 30mb in 18 hrs ohmy.gif

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Mar 7 2017, 05:34 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 05:37 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 26,647
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





So - question, to my way of looking at it, is whether this is what the CMC signaled - or is what the CMC showed, trying to signal the GFS?

Euro also tried to do something, but looks like it wants to write off the southern energy and only use N stream.

Honestly, this could be one storm in either thread.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NwsScott
post Mar 7 2017, 05:49 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,773
Joined: 23-December 12
From: Staten Island
Member No.: 27,388





This has the making of a historical coastal with storm surges and feet of snow. I am going all in with this event. Very good run to run consistency with the Euro mean . Very energetic baroclinic zone assuming the weekend is a miss which is likely .
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NwsScott
post Mar 7 2017, 05:52 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,773
Joined: 23-December 12
From: Staten Island
Member No.: 27,388





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 05:37 PM) *
So - question, to my way of looking at it, is whether this is what the CMC signaled - or is what the CMC showed, trying to signal the GFS?

Euro also tried to do something, but looks like it wants to write off the southern energy and only use N stream.

Honestly, this could be one storm in either thread.

Euro ensembles honking mecs - hecs for days now . Models will follow.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NwsScott
post Mar 7 2017, 06:02 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,773
Joined: 23-December 12
From: Staten Island
Member No.: 27,388






Today's Euro mean on top at 12z


Sunday 12z run.
This is pretty much locked in as I have seen this model which is why I am so positive on this risk.
Cmc/ 18z Gfs and Ukmet are showing exactly the same 500 mb look with a banana high as well.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PhillySnowLover
post Mar 7 2017, 06:06 PM
Post #19




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 242
Joined: 2-February 17
From: Garnet Valley, PA (Elev. 380')
Member No.: 31,400





QUOTE(NwsScott @ Mar 7 2017, 05:52 PM) *
Euro ensembles honking mecs - hecs for days now . Models will follow.


I don't think I have ever seen you this optimistic for a threat. The threat must be legit.

This post has been edited by PhillySnowLover: Mar 7 2017, 06:06 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 06:10 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 18,232
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Euro Ensembler 12x her 1688

Attached Image



--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

470 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 28th March 2017 - 03:02 AM