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> March 13-16 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter Blizzard, Possibility: Short range [1-3 day]
NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 06:11 PM
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really? Who blew up my fingers? smh
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NwsScott
post Mar 7 2017, 06:15 PM
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QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 7 2017, 06:06 PM) *
I don't think I have ever seen you this optimistic for a threat. The threat must be legit.

The euro eps is by far the best model to use at mid range and it is really performing well recently. It is also very consistent in its forecast. Go with this model over the extremes of other models from run to run, it is a pretty safe forecast.
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Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Mar 7 2017, 05:49 PM) *
This has the making of a historical coastal with storm surges and feet of snow. I am going all in with this event. Very good run to run consistency with the Euro mean . Very energetic baroclinic zone assuming the weekend is a miss which is likely .

The dates are eerily familiar, of course. If this be the time period, that is well with me.

After all, I only need one, late season monster storm, to fulfill my winter outlook "prophecy" - I realize that means nothing to the rest of the world, but I'd like to have gotten that part of my forecast to verify (outside of my calling for "many slop storms", which did happen early on)
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Storms R us
post Mar 7 2017, 06:18 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Mar 7 2017, 06:02 PM) *

Today's Euro mean on top at 12z


Sunday 12z run.
This is pretty much locked in as I have seen this model which is why I am so positive on this risk.
Cmc/ 18z Gfs and Ukmet are showing exactly the same 500 mb look with a banana high as well.



Looks good long ways to go though and hope those who didn't get much to begin with like DCA/BWI get a some love if the cold can hold with a storm that strong it will bring warm air and hopefully make it's own cold air to keep snow.
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PhillySnowLover
post Mar 7 2017, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Mar 7 2017, 06:02 PM) *
Today's Euro mean on top at 12z


This is pretty much locked in as I have seen this model which is why I am so positive on this risk.
Cmc/ 18z Gfs and Ukmet are showing exactly the same 500 mb look with a banana high as well.

But will there be enough cold air to work with?

This post has been edited by PhillySnowLover: Mar 7 2017, 06:37 PM
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Undertakerson
post Mar 7 2017, 06:43 PM
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QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 7 2017, 06:37 PM) *
But will there be enough cold air to work with?

When the term "banana" high is used, it infers plenty of cold air in both the "fronting region" (where it would be blocked to some extent) and the "backing region" (which feeds even more cold air into the back side of the system)

With dual sources of high pressure, there is always plenty of cold. And if this cranks as shown on the 18z, it will pull down plenty of cold from the top of the column.

Cold would not be a concern, in the least.
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 06:51 PM
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Powerstroke...any word on the 18z GEFS in regards to this threat?
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 06:55 PM
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I don't have the most detailed maps of the GEFS, but based on what I could tell they look great. Lots of strong center of LP clustering near the coast with ample QPF
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PhillySnowLover
post Mar 7 2017, 06:59 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Mar 7 2017, 06:43 PM) *
When the term "banana" high is used, it infers plenty of cold air in both the "fronting region" (where it would be blocked to some extent) and the "backing region" (which feeds even more cold air into the back side of the system)

With dual sources of high pressure, there is always plenty of cold. And if this cranks as shown on the 18z, it will pull down plenty of cold from the top of the column.

Cold would not be a concern, in the least.

Thanks for the explanation. smile.gif
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MaineJay
post Mar 7 2017, 07:00 PM
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I'll repost the EPS clusters from 0z, courtesy of ohiobuckeye45.

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 07:07 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Mar 7 2017, 07:00 PM) *
I'll repost the EPS clusters from 0z, courtesy of ohiobuckeye45.

Attached Image

Amazing how tight they are this far out.
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NorEaster07
post Mar 7 2017, 07:08 PM
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GFS18z Ensembles. 20 members. Hour 174. Tuesday 7pm

Attached Image

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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 07:10 PM
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Well I must say, I admit I was wrong, or will be wrong about the sat/sun event. I did a lot of research on the 500 vort maps and learned quite a bit as to what to expect with storms. This upcoming system has me really excited seeing almost all the models converging on a strong system affecting the east coast. If current indications are right this has the potential to hit some places rather hard.

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Mar 7 2017, 07:11 PM
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stilko4
post Mar 7 2017, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2017, 07:10 PM) *
Well I must say, I admit I was wrong, or will be wrong about the sat/sun event. I did a lot of research on the 500 vort maps and learned quite a bit as to what to expect with storms. This upcoming system has me really excited seeing almost all the models converging on a strong system affecting the east coast. If current indications are right this has the opportunity to really hit some places rather hard.


I like the pattern for tues, but I also liked the pattern Feb 13 or around there with a storm to phase and hit the mid atl. The storm formed and phased but was too late for all except maine. Still end of the season, time to go all in


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 07:13 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 7 2017, 07:12 PM) *
I like the pattern for tues, but I also liked the pattern Feb 13 or around there with a storm to phase and hit the mid atl. The storm formed and phased but was too late for all except maine. Still end of the season, time to go all in


If I recall correctly that one had the southern energy lag just enough to miss us only to gobble it up near Maine.
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stilko4
post Mar 7 2017, 07:17 PM
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Steve d already calling people out about this storm saying it's 150 miles too far east in a progressive pattern . (Which would still give his areas that he forecasts for snow).


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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stilko4
post Mar 7 2017, 07:18 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Mar 7 2017, 07:13 PM) *
If I recall correctly that one had the southern energy lag just enough to miss us only to gobble it up near Maine.


Yes, you're corect. Maybe this will.be a "makeup storm" for that


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Snobal
post Mar 7 2017, 07:22 PM
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loving what I am seeing and reading so far but a week away is just a dream for now.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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MaineJay
post Mar 7 2017, 07:24 PM
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EPS with spread

Attached Image


--------------------
The Solar Eclipse is coming!! Thread

"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." - Albert Einstein
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 7 2017, 07:17 PM) *
Steve d already calling people out about this storm saying it's 150 miles too far east in a progressive pattern . (Which would still give his areas that he forecasts for snow).

Hopefully he's not right again
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