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> March 13-16 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter Blizzard, Possibility: Short range [1-3 day]
shane o mac
post Mar 7 2017, 07:30 PM
Post #41




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Wow at the gfs ! what a pressure drop looks like things could get interesting next week for some .. model mayhem will continue all week
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grandpaboy
post Mar 7 2017, 07:42 PM
Post #42




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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 7 2017, 07:17 PM) *
Steve d already calling people out about this storm saying it's 150 miles too far east in a progressive pattern . (Which would still give his areas that he forecasts for snow).



Oh you mean this... wink.gif


Attached Image


--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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telejunkie
post Mar 7 2017, 08:15 PM
Post #43




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would be great to see a bigger storm, but didn't open this thread under the impression it would be a larger system. For the time being, just in wait & monitor mode knowing that models have a long way to go to sort out details


--------------------
Winter '16-'17 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
11/20-11/22 - 8" 1/24 - 7"
12/11 - 5" 2/9 - 8"
12/17 - 4" 2/12 - 10"
12/29 - 5" 3/14 - 18"

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 80"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
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MaineJay
post Mar 7 2017, 08:34 PM
Post #44




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From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





18z GEFS spaghetti, some impressive members.

Attached Image


--------------------
"z = z2 + c" - Benoit Mandelbrot

"Speak softly and carry a big stick; you will go far" - Theodore Roosevelt.

MJ SN-o-meter. Each dash represents 1", 84 in total for 7', my average
//////////////////////////////////////////
//////////////////////////////////////////

***bonus snow***
////////////////////////////////

118" season to date
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 08:34 PM
Post #45




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Member No.: 12,448





From Bastardi GEFS ensemble Totals:

4 Day:


8 Day:


12 Day:


16 Day:


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Mar 7 2017, 09:17 PM
Post #46




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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Mar 7 2017, 07:42 PM) *
Oh you mean this... wink.gif


Attached Image

Doesn't seem like a Progressive pattern to me. Maybe the first two systems do, but not the 3rd and trailer
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PhillySnowLover
post Mar 7 2017, 09:54 PM
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I will be up for the Rooster shift(early rooster shift). Going to bed after 00z gfs. My gut feeling is wave 2 may end up slightly further North which in turn will make this system trend worse but at the same time the Sunday would be better. Lol do not even know what to root for anymore.
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stilko4
post Mar 7 2017, 10:00 PM
Post #48




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QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 7 2017, 09:54 PM) *
I will be up for the Rooster shift(early rooster shift). Going to bed after 00z gfs. My gut feeling is wave 2 may end up slightly further North which in turn will make this system trend worse but at the same time the Sunday would be better. Lol do not even know what to root for anymore.

Root for the mets


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 11:19 PM
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Here comes the Tuesday system:


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 11:21 PM
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Trying to come together:


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 11:23 PM
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There it is, better then nothing at all.


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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JDClapper
post Mar 7 2017, 11:23 PM
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Member No.: 26,143





Look at it. Look.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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saracenic arch
post Mar 7 2017, 11:23 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Mar 7 2017, 11:21 PM) *
Trying to come together:


Gonna do it again on this run.
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JDClapper
post Mar 7 2017, 11:23 PM
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Almost neutral

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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PhillySnowLover
post Mar 7 2017, 11:24 PM
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Gfs was actually really close to being something much bigger
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JDClapper
post Mar 7 2017, 11:24 PM
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Lord have mercy.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 11:24 PM
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Member No.: 12,448





Woah looking ahead on instantmaps it's better then I thought. ohmy.gif

This post has been edited by phillyfan: Mar 7 2017, 11:24 PM


--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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phillyfan
post Mar 7 2017, 11:25 PM
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--------------------
2016-2017 Winter

First Flakes: 11/19
Winter Weather Advisory: 12/11-12, 12/16-17, 1/10-11, 2/12, 3/10, 3/14-15, 3/18-19
Frz. Rain Advisory: 12/24, 12/26, 1/2, 1/17
Wind Advisory: 1/23, 2/13, 3/1-2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/8-9, 3/13-14
Winter Storm Warning: 2/9, 3/13-14
Blizzard Warning: 3/13-14
High Wind Watch: 2/13
High Wind Warning: 3/2
Severe T-Storm Watch: 2/25, 3/1
Severe T-Storm Warning: 2/25, 2/25, 3/1

Pea Size Hail: 2/25

12/17: 1", 12/29: 1"
1/5-6: 1.5"
2/9: 3"
3/10: 3", 3/13-14: 16"
2016-17 Total: 25.5"
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SnowMan11
post Mar 7 2017, 11:25 PM
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CMC crushes inland areas. Snow to rain for the coast but wow, what a huge storm.

GFS also has a big storm


--------------------
Anthony
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JDClapper
post Mar 7 2017, 11:26 PM
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*tear* :')

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **
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