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> March 12-14 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm OBS, Post last minute forecasts and OBS
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 8 2017, 01:01 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Mar 8 2017, 01:26 PM) *
Very interesting on the 12z GEFS ensemble members....the further south solutions all turn straight up the coast for classic noreasters

As long as I get enough snow to move Columbia out of the least snowiest winter ever, I'll be happy.

I need 1.3" to make that happen or 3.3" to move into 3rd least snowiest winter. My fingers are crossed.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 01:27 PM
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ecm is coming on board....but as it was noted last page...this is a slow mover..you cant even get a specific area in the "24 hour" total maps...definitely something to be watched even if its not a powerhouse storm
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 8 2017, 01:30 PM
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06z DGEX run total snow, the east coast looks like a good spot to be. Why couldn't this wintry threat occur during winter ... now that it's March I need to focus on graduating ...
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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Juniorrr
post Mar 8 2017, 01:40 PM
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Looking in the NE thread, Euro brings a good 2-3" isolated 4 in IN/OH and a bit more out west though not sure if it combined for both systems.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 01:42 PM
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just this system 10:1...pretty far reaching
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grace
post Mar 8 2017, 03:18 PM
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12z EPS has some pretty interesting members. Some have a much larger system. I know the one before has to do it's thing first before models coming to grips with this one but better watch this one, wherever it ends up with better amplification there could be a large thumping somewhere even before it gets to the coast.
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snowlover2
post Mar 8 2017, 04:17 PM
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Latest from ILN

QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
321 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017



Focus shifts to clipper type system that digs southeast from the
northern plains through the Ohio Valley Monday. Latest numerical
model solns have trended further south with this track thru KY.
Have bumped pops up to likely as there is better than average
confidence that pcpn evident will occur in this time frame. Exact
track is more uncertain and affects the thermal fields. Have used a
blended GFS/ECMWF soln and have snow developing Monday and then a
period of rain south Monday afternoon before all pcpn changes back
to snow Monday evening. Best lift and moisture looks focused on
Monday night. Accumulating snow will be possible Monday night with
several inches possible.
Will mention this possibility in the HWO
products.


Being a night event will be a big help as far as snow sticking


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# of T-Storm Warnings:10

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 05:10 PM
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you gotta be kidding me with the BS the 18z GFS is putting out tracking SE again over MO

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 8 2017, 05:10 PM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 05:12 PM
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thank god this thing is still crawling slow allowing light snow to "add up" east
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 05:14 PM
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but after what happened to the weekend storm....major caution in the wind for another suppressed and or sheared out storm
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ohiobuckeye45
post Mar 8 2017, 05:18 PM
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.

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 8 2017, 05:18 PM
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Juniorrr
post Mar 8 2017, 05:29 PM
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Looking good still. 18z GFS has a diff evolution for the storm but we take. Lol @ the monster vort after.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 8 2017, 06:00 PM
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No matter what the MW/GL/OV region gets from this system; New England will receive amounts from this that will ours to shame


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Mar 8 2017, 06:29 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 8 2017, 06:00 PM) *
No matter what the MW/GL/OV region gets from this system; New England will receive amounts from this that will ours to shame



Indeed. The perks one sees on the coast. Though the proximity to the ocean can on occasion hose a person also.
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Juniorrr
post Mar 8 2017, 06:31 PM
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18z GEFS snows for fun
Can see the amplified fantasy solutions
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mulaman984
post Mar 8 2017, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 8 2017, 06:31 PM) *
18z GEFS snows for fun
Can see the amplified fantasy solutions


Hi #16.
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nkovatch85
post Mar 8 2017, 06:41 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 04:18 PM) *
.




--------------------
2017 Tornado Watches: 2
2017 Severe T-Storm Watches: 3

2016-17 snow prediction: 26.0"
2016-17 actual snowfall: 10.3" (It's over)
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cary67
post Mar 8 2017, 07:59 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 04:18 PM) *
.

Ooh trending ever closer to ORD maintaining its futility streak. Only .1" since Dec.18th.
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Southern Missour...
post Mar 8 2017, 08:20 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 06:10 PM) *
you gotta be kidding me with the BS the 18z GFS is putting out tracking SE again over MO


Yes,that would be just awful considering all,the riches of the 2 inches of snow that has piled up here so far this winter ... MO needs to spread the wealth of our overabundance of snow this summer... I mean,winter ... blink.gif
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Southern Missour...
post Mar 8 2017, 08:22 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 8 2017, 07:31 PM) *
18z GEFS snows for fun
Can see the amplified fantasy solutions


Would u care to post the ones showing southern MO for the rest of the winter when u post these? Money was tight and we've had no winter here basically since December so I cancelled my wb early this year sad.gif
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