 March 12-14 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm OBS, Post last minute forecasts and OBS |
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 Mar 8 2017, 01:01 PM
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#21
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Founding Member Posts: 6,228 Joined: 10-June 07 From: St. Louis, Missouri Member No.: 6,288  |
QUOTE(grace @ Mar 8 2017, 01:26 PM)  Very interesting on the 12z GEFS ensemble members....the further south solutions all turn straight up the coast for classic noreasters As long as I get enough snow to move Columbia out of the least snowiest winter ever, I'll be happy. I need 1.3" to make that happen or 3.3" to move into 3rd least snowiest winter. My fingers are crossed. -------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win |
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Mar 8 2017, 01:27 PM
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#22
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
ecm is coming on board....but as it was noted last page...this is a slow mover..you cant even get a specific area in the "24 hour" total maps...definitely something to be watched even if its not a powerhouse storm
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Mar 8 2017, 01:30 PM
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#23
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 6,228 Joined: 10-June 07 From: St. Louis, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
06z DGEX run total snow, the east coast looks like a good spot to be. Why couldn't this wintry threat occur during winter ... now that it's March I need to focus on graduating ...
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-------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win |
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Mar 8 2017, 01:40 PM
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#24
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,606 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Looking in the NE thread, Euro brings a good 2-3" isolated 4 in IN/OH and a bit more out west though not sure if it combined for both systems.
-------------------- Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5" 1/5/17 - 3" 1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting 2/8/17 - 1.25" 3/13/17 - just about 1.0" |
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Mar 8 2017, 01:42 PM
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#25
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
just this system 10:1...pretty far reaching
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Mar 8 2017, 03:18 PM
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#26
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,012 Joined: 21-January 10 From: Paducah, Ky Member No.: 21,017 |
12z EPS has some pretty interesting members. Some have a much larger system. I know the one before has to do it's thing first before models coming to grips with this one but better watch this one, wherever it ends up with better amplification there could be a large thumping somewhere even before it gets to the coast.
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Mar 8 2017, 04:17 PM
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#27
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 16,595 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
Latest from ILN
QUOTE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 321 PM EST Wed Mar 8 2017 Focus shifts to clipper type system that digs southeast from the northern plains through the Ohio Valley Monday. Latest numerical model solns have trended further south with this track thru KY. Have bumped pops up to likely as there is better than average confidence that pcpn evident will occur in this time frame. Exact track is more uncertain and affects the thermal fields. Have used a blended GFS/ECMWF soln and have snow developing Monday and then a period of rain south Monday afternoon before all pcpn changes back to snow Monday evening. Best lift and moisture looks focused on Monday night. Accumulating snow will be possible Monday night with several inches possible. Will mention this possibility in the HWO products. Being a night event will be a big help as far as snow sticking -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:5
# of T-Storm Warnings:10 # of Tornado Watches:2 # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Mar 8 2017, 05:10 PM
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#28
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
you gotta be kidding me with the BS the 18z GFS is putting out tracking SE again over MO
This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 8 2017, 05:10 PM |
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Mar 8 2017, 05:12 PM
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#29
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
thank god this thing is still crawling slow allowing light snow to "add up" east
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Mar 8 2017, 05:14 PM
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#30
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
but after what happened to the weekend storm....major caution in the wind for another suppressed and or sheared out storm
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Mar 8 2017, 05:18 PM
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 23,747 Joined: 17-February 08 From: Dublin, Ohio (KOSU; 25 min NW of Columbus) Member No.: 13,767 |
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This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Mar 8 2017, 05:18 PM
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Mar 8 2017, 05:29 PM
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#32
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,606 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Looking good still. 18z GFS has a diff evolution for the storm but we take. Lol @ the monster vort after.
-------------------- Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5" 1/5/17 - 3" 1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting 2/8/17 - 1.25" 3/13/17 - just about 1.0" |
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Mar 8 2017, 06:00 PM
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#33
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 6,228 Joined: 10-June 07 From: St. Louis, Missouri Member No.: 6,288 |
No matter what the MW/GL/OV region gets from this system; New England will receive amounts from this that will ours to shame
-------------------- All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.
Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win |
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Mar 8 2017, 06:29 PM
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#34
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Founding Member Posts: 39,684 Joined: 7-March 04 From: Dayton, Ohio Member No.: 16 |
QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Mar 8 2017, 06:00 PM) No matter what the MW/GL/OV region gets from this system; New England will receive amounts from this that will ours to shame Indeed. The perks one sees on the coast. Though the proximity to the ocean can on occasion hose a person also. |
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Mar 8 2017, 06:31 PM
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#35
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,606 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
18z GEFS snows for fun
Can see the amplified fantasy solutions
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-------------------- Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5" 1/5/17 - 3" 1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting 2/8/17 - 1.25" 3/13/17 - just about 1.0" |
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Mar 8 2017, 06:36 PM
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#36
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 548 Joined: 18-May 09 Member No.: 18,245 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 8 2017, 06:31 PM) 18z GEFS snows for fun Can see the amplified fantasy solutions Hi #16. |
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Mar 8 2017, 06:41 PM
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#37
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 353 Joined: 17-April 11 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 25,595 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 04:18 PM) . 
-------------------- 2017 Tornado Watches: 2
2017 Severe T-Storm Watches: 3 2016-17 snow prediction: 26.0" 2016-17 actual snowfall: 10.3" (It's over) |
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Mar 8 2017, 07:59 PM
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#38
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,033 Joined: 18-January 08 Member No.: 12,660 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 04:18 PM) . Ooh trending ever closer to ORD maintaining its futility streak. Only .1" since Dec.18th. |
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Mar 8 2017, 08:20 PM
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#39
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,079 Joined: 20-December 09 Member No.: 20,483 |
QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Mar 8 2017, 06:10 PM) you gotta be kidding me with the BS the 18z GFS is putting out tracking SE again over MO Yes,that would be just awful considering all,the riches of the 2 inches of snow that has piled up here so far this winter ... MO needs to spread the wealth of our overabundance of snow this summer... I mean,winter ... 
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Mar 8 2017, 08:22 PM
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#40
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 2,079 Joined: 20-December 09 Member No.: 20,483 |
QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Mar 8 2017, 07:31 PM) 18z GEFS snows for fun Can see the amplified fantasy solutions Would u care to post the ones showing southern MO for the rest of the winter when u post these? Money was tight and we've had no winter here basically since December so I cancelled my wb early this year 
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 17th August 2017 - 06:40 AM |