Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 18-20 MidAtl/NE Nor'easter, Possibility: Long range
SnowMan11
post Mar 14 2017, 10:27 AM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,924
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(ionizer @ Mar 14 2017, 10:58 AM) *
I dont see a thread for march 23rd


There should be one


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Mar 14 2017, 10:27 AM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,924
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(RobM1981 @ Mar 14 2017, 10:38 AM) *
At this time of year I predict, broadly: torch.

If snow is predicted, we'll see sleet. If sleet, we'll see rain. It's mid to late March. We can definitely see snow again, but major storms bring too much heat with them at this point.


Not true

This storm wasn't in the right spot for the coast to see snow.


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Mar 14 2017, 10:39 AM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,640
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:27 AM) *
Not true

This storm wasn't in the right spot for the coast to see snow.


Even in January, early feb, this track leads to a mix


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Mar 14 2017, 10:51 AM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,772
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:39 AM) *
Even in January, early feb, this track leads to a mix

Exactly, this has nothing to do with it being March, there was plenty of cold around. Had to do with how the low positioned itself so close to coast and that allowed some warm ocean air to get blown inland. This would have happened in Jan/Feb too. rolleyes.gif

Also, I am seeing blizzard like conditions at this time.


--------------------

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snobal
post Mar 14 2017, 10:58 AM
Post #45




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 973
Joined: 25-November 12
From: east central Pa
Member No.: 27,253





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:27 AM) *
There should be one

thats almost 10 days out I think we can wait a few more. lets see what happens this weekend first


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SnowMan11
post Mar 14 2017, 11:07 AM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 23,924
Joined: 27-February 08
From: Brooklyn,NY
Member No.: 14,017





QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:39 AM) *
Even in January, early feb, this track leads to a mix


I'm saying if the track was right


--------------------
Anthony
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WEATHERFAN100
post Mar 14 2017, 11:44 AM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,464
Joined: 6-February 08
From: LANCASTER PA
Member No.: 13,459





FWIW (prob not much) long range NAM
Attached Image


--------------------
-James
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 14 2017, 12:01 PM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 14 2017, 10:16 AM) *
The 23rd storm is on every model



That all depends again on location and where the low travels.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 14 2017, 12:22 PM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





Actually the GFS long range doesn't show any snow storms but little rain this weekend for the NE and a bigger rain maker 25. Let's hope enough snow NE melts before the 25th especially where those areas got slammed.

Of course this is only one model and the NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. The CMC paints a different picture as it doesn't show much for this weekend but for the 24/25 shows a possibility of a snow storm for same locations with a powerful s/w coming from the S/W and Cold H from N/W. The EURO doesn't from what my untrained eyes doesn't show much for this 23 weekend but the 24/25 it's hard for me to tell but could be warm.


Either way will be interesting on how things unfold as March comes to an end.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Mar 14 2017, 12:26 PM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mr freeze
post Mar 14 2017, 01:21 PM
Post #50




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 978
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Belle Harbor, Queens N.Y. 11694 (right across Marine Park Bridge)
Member No.: 12,802





QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 14 2017, 11:39 AM) *
Even in January, early feb, this track leads to a mix


Depending on the strength of the arctic air mass in place as the storm arrives. For today's storm, there was marginal cold in place. Last year we had that super arctic air in place in Feb for Presidents day when NYC hit -1. Even with a GLC track, we still got a several inch front end thump because it took time to erode such strong cold although it did happen within a few hours. However, with today's track, arctic air of that strength would not have been scoured out. At worst, maybe some sleet but likely not until the tail end, even right on the shore.


--------------------
"FOR THE WINTER 2016-17.....If the Nina stays weak.....LOOK OUT! Are we about to finally turn the corner towards cold/snow in March?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grandpaboy
post Mar 14 2017, 01:55 PM
Post #51




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,232
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 14 2017, 12:07 PM) *
I'm saying if the track was right



But SM you bought lock, stock and barrel every model with this current storm and see how well that turned out for you... wink.gif


--------------------
just a guy who despises weather but loves the drama....


whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PhillySnowLover
post Mar 14 2017, 02:20 PM
Post #52




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 249
Joined: 2-February 17
From: Garnet Valley, PA (Elev. 380')
Member No.: 31,400





There will be no more saying "Its only the NAM" for now on.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stilko4
post Mar 14 2017, 02:29 PM
Post #53




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,640
Joined: 9-January 08
Member No.: 12,166





QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 14 2017, 03:20 PM) *
There will be no more saying "Its only the NAM" for now on.

The newer nam actually did worse then the old regular nam


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 14 2017, 02:32 PM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(PhillySnowLover @ Mar 14 2017, 03:20 PM) *
There will be no more saying "Its only the NAM" for now on.



laugh.gif

With kidding aside

NWS was also surprised on how far west.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mr freeze
post Mar 14 2017, 03:19 PM
Post #55




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 978
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Belle Harbor, Queens N.Y. 11694 (right across Marine Park Bridge)
Member No.: 12,802





QUOTE(Storms R us @ Mar 14 2017, 03:32 PM) *
laugh.gif

With kidding aside

NWS was also surprised on how far west.



So what are ya thinking this weekend, "Storms"? Rainmaker?


--------------------
"FOR THE WINTER 2016-17.....If the Nina stays weak.....LOOK OUT! Are we about to finally turn the corner towards cold/snow in March?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 14 2017, 04:03 PM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





QUOTE(mr freeze @ Mar 14 2017, 04:19 PM) *
So what are ya thinking this weekend, "Storms"? Rainmaker?



I don't know just posted what the models were showing for the next couple weeks and didn't see any snow even for Med Atlantic that got snow. The following is being advertised by ACCU,


"A fast-moving storm will bring a period of snow, wintry mix and rain to parts of the Midwest on Friday and the Northeast during Friday night into Saturday," Pastelok said.
A couple of additional storms with some sort of wintry precipitation may follow over the Great Lakes and part of the Northeast next week, despite spring's official arrival on Monday, March 20.
"In addition to the threat for more wintry precipitation over next couple of weeks, the amount of snow put down in parts of the Northeast will increase the chance of flooding problems moving forward this spring," Pastelok said.
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Mar 14 2017, 05:52 PM
Post #57




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,613
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(mr freeze @ Mar 14 2017, 02:21 PM) *
Depending on the strength of the arctic air mass in place as the storm arrives. For today's storm, there was marginal cold in place. Last year we had that super arctic air in place in Feb for Presidents day when NYC hit -1. Even with a GLC track, we still got a several inch front end thump because it took time to erode such strong cold although it did happen within a few hours. However, with today's track, arctic air of that strength would not have been scoured out. At worst, maybe some sleet but likely not until the tail end, even right on the shore.

Marginal cold. We've run 20 below normal for the last 4 days here. We've run 5 to 10 below our mid January normal. On top of that, we had high pressure to our north for the first event this year.



--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Mar 14 2017, 05:57 PM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,613
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(stilko4 @ Mar 14 2017, 03:29 PM) *
The newer nam actually did worse then the old regular nam

I had posted the comparisons in todays storm thread. I think the 4k got the surface temps better, but missed the 800mb temps. At least here we made it to 30 and the Nam had us at 34. 4k was 31.

More on this on the other thread


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stretchct
post Mar 14 2017, 06:05 PM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,613
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





Quick snapshot comparison - NAM v 4k v 3k from 0z 3-13
21z per meso
Attached Image

3k
Attached Image

4k
Attached Image

OP
Attached Image



edit - crud wrong thread

This post has been edited by stretchct: Mar 14 2017, 06:06 PM


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

"I'd rather bust low than bust high" - 2/9 Called for 9-10, got 15

Winter stats 2016-17
Snow to date: 58"
3-14 11.5"
3-10 5.5"
2-12 4"
2-9 15.75"
1-30 2.5"
1-23/24 1.25
1-14 1"
1-7 6.5"
1-6 2"
12-17 6"
12-12 1"
12-5 1"
First measurable 12-5 1"
First flakes 10-27
First freeze 10-25
First frost 10-11

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Storms R us
post Mar 14 2017, 06:58 PM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,971
Joined: 12-February 13
Member No.: 28,281





Right now there calling for showers even through PA this weekend. Below is Harrisburg forecast end of this week.


FRI

MAR 17
40 /33
Partly sunny

SAT

MAR 18
45 /32
Clouds and sun with a shower
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

19 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 18th August 2017 - 05:49 AM