Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> March 19-20 MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk level: Day 2 Marginal; Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Mar 18 2017, 08:00 AM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,967
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





A few of us may see some hail producers Sunday night, figured I's put a placemarker should it occur. Probably a step above yawn, but this will mark the official end of Winter either way, and that in itself is a bonus

Attached Image


QUOTE
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal hail threat may develop from late Sunday evening into the
overnight period across parts of the lower Missouri and mid
Mississippi Valleys. Other non-severe thunderstorms may develop
across parts of the Intermountain West.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level ridge is forecast to move from the Great Plains and
mid Missouri Valley eastward into the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley on Sunday. A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into
the mid Missouri Valley Sunday night as the ridge moves eastward
away from the region. In response, a low-level jet will strengthen
across the lower Missouri Valley during the evening resulting in
moisture advection and allowing instability to increase. Model
forecasts are in decent agreement, developing thunderstorms near the
nose of the low-level jet in southern Iowa during the late evening
and moving this activity southeastward into western Illinois after
midnight. NAM and GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at
06Z/Monday show a sharp temperature inversion at the surface but
have substantial instability above 700 mb with MUCAPE values of 1500
to 2000 J/kg. This combined with steep lapse rates and 30 to 35 kt
of effective shear may be enough for a marginal hail threat with the
stronger cells.

..Broyles.. 03/18/2017


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 20 2017, 06:41 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
melissa from ill...
post Mar 18 2017, 11:10 AM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,203
Joined: 9-June 09
From: Curran Illinois
Member No.: 18,383





another storm like we got Friday morning would be nice. lots of hail.


--------------------
"Auntie Em, Uncle Henry, its a TWISTER its a TWISTER!"
"I gotta go, we got COWS!"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
styropyro
post Mar 18 2017, 05:05 PM
Post #3




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 35
Joined: 2-February 14
From: Carbondale, IL
Member No.: 29,178





Maybe I'll get lucky and see some hail. Elevated thunderstorms with cool temps have dumped buckets of small hail on my area in the past.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 18 2017, 05:30 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,203
Joined: 10-June 07
From: St. Louis, Missouri
Member No.: 6,288





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Mar 18 2017, 09:00 AM) *
A few of us may see some hail producers Sunday night, figured I's put a placemarker should it occur. Probably a step above yawn, but this will mark the official end of Winter either way, and that in itself is a bonus

Amen and yeah the analogs are not particularly exciting, but the reservoir of CAPE across TX right now is certainly impressive. Give that time to move northeast and there could easily be some frisky thunderstorms so I'm interested.

After looking at the high res NAM solutions, seems rather likely that the LLJ will kick off some locally frisky elevated storms across MO Sunday morning into the afternoon. Essentially the same scenario is shown to unfold across north-central IL on Monday morning and 1000+ Jkg MUCAPE and 30+ knots of bulk shear would support isolated large hail events.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 19 2017, 11:11 AM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,203
Joined: 10-June 07
From: St. Louis, Missouri
Member No.: 6,288





A couple isolated thunderstorms are moving towards MBY and the dew point is currently 32.4 F so there must be some impressive elevated moisture advection occurring this morning.

That is exactly what the HRRR shows this morning in the vicinity of the storms. The sounding from the initialization frame indicates a LLJ near 850mb where dew points are about 12C warmer than the surface. Interesting little event and continues the trend of robust moisture return this season.

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Mar 19 2017, 11:11 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Mar 19 2017, 11:53 AM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,405
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Models showing an interesting small event for IL-IN-OH tomorrow afternoon. Some discrete cells ahead of a line(assuming non-severe at least for IN-OH?) that dives south through IN/OH into KY/WV.
For now temps in the 50s with dews upper 40s ahead of the line.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Mar 19 2017, 11:54 AM
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image

Attached Image
 


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
StL weatherjunki...
post Mar 19 2017, 04:09 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 6,203
Joined: 10-June 07
From: St. Louis, Missouri
Member No.: 6,288





Appears to be an isolated dry-line cell or two in west TX this afternoon.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 19 2017, 10:14 PM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,349
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Nice elevated instability in another northwest flow low-end severe weather threat




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 19 2017, 10:17 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 19 2017, 10:54 PM
Post #9




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,349
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





Definitely expecting them to bump it up to a marginal risk tomorrow




--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Mar 19 2017, 11:11 PM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,405
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 19 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Definitely expecting them to bump it up to a marginal risk tomorrow

Expecting some morning debris - see how fast it clears up although not expecting it to hamper our "non-severe" potential line/mcs

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Mar 19 2017, 11:17 PM


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:31 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,349
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





We currently have a MCS (or at least MCS-like cluster) in Michigan with surface temps in the 30's. It produced two 1" hail reports in Wisconsin before going over Lake Michigan. Strong convection round 1 of 2 has formed in Iowa.




This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Mar 20 2017, 12:32 AM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ClicheVortex2014
post Mar 20 2017, 12:52 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 19,349
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Athens, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 19 2017, 11:54 PM) *
Definitely expecting them to bump it up to a marginal risk tomorrow



Guess not haha


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978
- ILN Severe Weather Climatology

2017 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 0 (Last: 9/8/16)
Marginal risks: 6 (Last: 4/3/17)
Slight risks: 1 (Last: 4/20/17)
Enhanced risks: 5 (Last: 4/5/17)
Moderate risks: 0 (Last: 6/22/16)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)

Realtime Weather on Campus: http://www.phy.ohiou.edu/~scalia/state_street/upload.png
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 06:46 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,967
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Mar 19 2017, 10:54 PM) *
Definitely expecting them to bump it up to a marginal risk tomorrow



Quite a bit further south than the HRRR had depicted.

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Mar 20 2017, 07:02 AM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 20,967
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Not bad for temps in the 40's ringing in the first day of Spring

Attached Image

This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Mar 20 2017, 07:07 AM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Mar 20 2017, 07:28 AM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,658
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





Nice seeing some lightning and hearing some decent thunder. Crazy seeing this type of system when it is only 38 degrees IMBY.

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Mar 20 2017, 08:21 AM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,651
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





Yeah it is crazy getting these thunderstorms with such cool temps. But I love it when it happens. Enjoying the thunder this morning.


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
radarjunkie
post Mar 20 2017, 09:01 AM
Post #17




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 158
Joined: 7-February 10
From: liberty township, OH
Member No.: 21,550





This was the scene IMBY this am, it was really piled up on the roads:


Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Mar 20 2017, 10:38 AM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,179
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





As of the 8:30 update, they did add a marginal risk for the northern half of IN into SW OH.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Snow____
post Mar 20 2017, 10:50 AM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 7,651
Joined: 16-November 08
From: Cincinnati, OH
Member No.: 16,172





QUOTE(radarjunkie @ Mar 20 2017, 09:01 AM) *
This was the scene IMBY this am, it was really piled up on the roads:


Attached Image

Is that sleet or hail?


--------------------
Accuweather please give us our own Midwest area forecaster/video blogger
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowlover2
post Mar 20 2017, 10:52 AM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 16,179
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Dayton,OH
Member No.: 16,713





New storms popping in NE IL now.


--------------------
# of T-Storm Watches:2

# of T-Storm Warnings:5

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

4 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 27th April 2017 - 06:01 AM